Credit risk transmission
Physical and transition shocks are linked to borrower revenues, collateral values and default probabilities, with identification stated.
GRA · 气候与自然金融风险
空间金融资本与危害、风险暴露和转型的交汇之处
气候与自然金融风险的金融经济学与宏观金融
Financial economics explains how risks are priced and transmitted through balance sheets and markets. On this platform it links climate and nature drivers to credit, market, underwriting and 流动性风险, and examines whether markets price them.
02申请
What financial economics and macro-finance does here.
Financial economics and macro-finance study how asset prices, credit and financial institutions interact with the real economy. They explain how shocks are amplified or absorbed through balance sheets and markets. In climate and hazards, biodiversity and nature and capital markets and investment, financial economics traces how physical, health or cyber shocks transmit to credit, sovereign debt and markets. It informs 宏观审慎政策 and the pricing of risk. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Market pricing studies
Bond spreads, equity returns and property prices are examined for evidence that climate risk is priced.
Cross-sector transmission
Interactions between insurance availability, bank lending and asset prices are analysed as feedback loops that cross sector boundaries.
03监测
计量经济模型。
团队遵循该方法时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。
计量经济模型
Climate and nature financial risk · Financial economics · Run R-0990
估计值稳定GRA · 气候与自然金融风险
估计值
稳健标准误
| 融资排放 | −0.32 | 0.04 | [−0.3, 0.4] | 是 |
| Exposure to high physical risk | 0.67 | 0.05 | [−0.6, 0.9] | 是 |
| Expected loss uplift, disorderly | 0.12 | 0.18 | [0.0, 0.9] | 否 |
| Nature dependency materiality | 0.54 | 0.12 | [−0.1, 0.9] | 是 |
方法卡
- 方法
- 金融经济学与宏观金融
- 样本
- 10,098 obs
- 设计
- 面板，固定效应
- 标签
- 模型估算
按组别的残差
04数据
该方法使用的输入。
Datasets and records used by financial economics and macro-finance on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.
| 数据 | 角色 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|
| Loan and collateral data | Credit exposure | 已发布统计 |
| Market prices | Pricing evidence | 观测 |
| Disclosures | Exposure metrics | 已声明 |
05情景模型
投资组合面临的转型风险和实体风险。
依据 NGFS 框架的三个情景系列，通过碳成本和升温损害推动行业投资组合变化；传导视图则追踪损失如何传至贷款机构、投资者、公共财政和家庭。情景：关于未来的明确假设，并非预测。
控制措施
- 期末碳价，有序路径
- 每吨 CO2 200
- 无序转型前的延迟
- 占期限的 50%
- 转嫁给客户的成本
- 50%
- 当前较工业化前的升温幅度
- 1.30°C
- 现行政策下每十年升温幅度
- 0.25°C
- 损害系数
- 每 °C² 0.24%
- 未来年数
- 25 年
读数
- 时间跨度末的最差情景
- 占价值的 −33.6%
数字、方法与来源
| 年份 | 有序转型（价值百分比） | 延迟、无序转型（价值 %） | 现行政策（价值百分比） |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| 3 | −2.87 | −0.53 | −0.67 |
| 6 | −5.36 | −0.68 | −0.97 |
| 9 | −7.84 | −0.84 | −1.27 |
| 12 | −10.33 | −0.99 | −1.57 |
| 15 | −12.82 | −7.12 | −1.87 |
| 18 | −15.31 | −15.05 | −2.17 |
| 21 | −17.80 | −23.00 | −2.48 |
| 24 | −20.29 | −30.94 | −2.79 |
方法
- 气候情景系列 NGFS (2023), Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors, Phase IV
- 金融体系的气候压力测试 Battiston and others (2017), Nature Climate Change 7
- 损害函数 Nordhaus（2017），Revisiting the social cost of carbon，PNAS 114
- 传导渠道 BCBS (2021), Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels
- 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
数据
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- 城市范围 Natural Earth
- 海港 Natural Earth
- 过去一年的每日气温（经 Open-Meteo 获取的 ERA5） Open-Meteo.com（CC BY 4.0），Copernicus ERA5（C3S/ECMWF）· 登记册 open-meteo.public-pages
- 地表气温，白天（AIRS） NASA AIRS · 登记册 nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
06验证
结果如何核查。
Models are back-tested against historical market episodes and crises. Results are compared with supervisory data and alternative specifications.
| 核查 | 如何开展 |
|---|---|
| 识别 | Causal claims state how confounding was addressed |
| 稳健性 | Pricing results are checked across periods and markets |
| 数据质量 | Estimated inputs are labelled and their effect tested |
Relationships estimated in calm periods may break down in stress. Hidden leverage and interconnections are often unobserved.
07部门特征
Where exposure in Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk travels.
The sectors that carry exposure in Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk and how a loss in one passes to the others, across portfolios and public finances.
选择角点 · 悬停连线6 / 15 项关系
签名
生物多样性及其合作伙伴
生物多样性为粮食提供授粉和土壤（0.6），为水提供流域调节（0.5），为健康带来人畜共患病溢出和药物（0.4）。
W · E · I · F · H · B
- 部门
- 4 共 6
- 关系
- 6 共 15
- 耦合
- 0.46 占总量份额
当前最强的关系
- 粮食 → 生物多样性 · 土地转换0.6
- 水 → 粮食 · 灌溉0.8
- 水 → 生物多样性 · 生态流量0.6
- 粮食 → 健康 · 营养0.7
09风险暴露、损失与资本
What it means for exposure, loss and capital.
风险官、监管者或财政部会要求的风险暴露、损失、情景和资本视图，以及它们据以报告的框架。结构遵循监管和精算实务。数值为说明性：绝非价格、评级或建议。
情景路径
How Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk could be stressed under the scenario families central banks and supervisors use.
| 情景系列 | 转型风险 | 物理风险 | 压力测试问什么 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 有序 | 早期、渐进的政策 | 较低 | 账面能否承受持续的重新定价？ |
| 无序 | 迟缓而突然的政策 | 中低 | 在突然重新定价和信用迁移下，什么会出现问题？ |
| 温室世界 | 有限政策 | 高且上升 | 实体损失集中在抵押品和保险的哪些环节？ |
NGFS 气候情景 · 央行与监管机构绿色金融网络IFRS S2 气候相关披露 · ISSBTCFD 建议 · 金融稳定理事会 TCFD有效管理气候相关金融风险的原则 · 巴塞尔银行监管委员会
10管理责任
由谁维护该方法。
金融稳定 stewards financial economics and macro-finance for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11已关联
本页在整个联合体中通向何处。
12问题
问题与解答。
What are the limits of financial economics and macro-finance in this field?
Relationships estimated in calm periods may break down in stress. Hidden leverage and interconnections are often unobserved.
结果如何核查？
Models are back-tested against historical market episodes and crises. Results are compared with supervisory data and alternative specifications.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的各个 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
全球风险联盟（Global Risks Alliance）气候与自然金融风险金融与保险准备度情景与压力测试
- 电子邮件门户 GW-GRA从本页发送证据、更正、案例、方法、审查、翻译或概况投稿。它会带上本页标签送达，由负责的编辑接收。
- Zenodo开放存缴存缴并提交到社区用您的 ORCID iD 在 Zenodo 上发布您自己的记录，然后提交到那里的 Reports 社区。由策展人审核；DOI 仍归您所有。
- 报告全球风险联盟（Global Risks Alliance）查看所有贡献方式贡献类型、各自的评审方式、您获得的署名、许可协议，以及绝不接受的内容。
切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查；发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权，赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。
法律
法律文件。
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