Credit risk transmission
Physical and transition shocks are linked to borrower revenues, collateral values and default probabilities, with identification stated.
GRA · Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Financial economics explains how risks are priced and transmitted through balance sheets and markets. On this platform it links climate and nature drivers to credit, market, underwriting and liquidity risk, and examines whether markets price them.
01تۆمارکردن
Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- ڕێگائابووریی دارایی و دارایی گەورە
- پارێزەرجێگیریی دارایی
- Applied inمەترسیی داراییی کەشوهەوا و سروشت
- داتا3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02بەکارهێنان
What financial economics and macro-finance does here.
Financial economics and macro-finance study how asset prices, credit and financial institutions interact with the real economy. They explain how shocks are amplified or absorbed through balance sheets and markets. In climate and hazards, biodiversity and nature and capital markets and investment, financial economics traces how physical, health or cyber shocks transmit to credit, sovereign debt and markets. It informs macroprudential policy and the pricing of risk. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Market pricing studies
Bond spreads, equity returns and property prices are examined for evidence that climate risk is priced.
Cross-sector transmission
Interactions between insurance availability, bank lending and asset prices are analysed as feedback loops that cross sector boundaries.
03چاودێری
Econometric model.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Econometric model
Climate and nature financial risk · Financial economics · Run R-0990
Estimates stableGRA · Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Estimates
robust standard errors
| Financed emissions | −0.32 | 0.04 | [−0.3, 0.4] | بەڵێ |
| Exposure to high physical risk | 0.67 | 0.05 | [−0.6, 0.9] | بەڵێ |
| Expected loss uplift, disorderly | 0.12 | 0.18 | [0.0, 0.9] | نەخێر |
| Nature dependency materiality | 0.54 | 0.12 | [−0.1, 0.9] | بەڵێ |
Method card
- ڕێگا
- ئابووریی دارایی و دارایی گەورە
- Sample
- 10,098 obs
- دیزاین
- panel, fixed effects
- ناونیشان
- مۆدێلکراو
Residuals by group
04داتا
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by financial economics and macro-finance on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| داتا | ڕۆڵ | ناونیشان |
|---|---|---|
| Loan and collateral data | Credit exposure | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
| Market prices | Pricing evidence | چاودێریکراو |
| Disclosures | Exposure metrics | DECLARED |
05Scenario model
Transition and physical risk on a portfolio.
Three scenario families after the NGFS framework move a sector portfolio through carbon costs and warming damages; the transmission view follows the losses to lenders, investors, public finances and households. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast.
کۆنترۆڵەکان
- Carbon price at the horizon, orderly path
- 200 per tCO2
- Delay before a disorderly transition
- 50% of horizon
- Cost passed to customers
- 50%
- Warming today above pre-industrial
- 1.30°C
- Warming per decade, current policies
- 0.25°C
- Damage coefficient
- 0.24% per °C²
- ساڵەکانی داهاتوو
- 25 years
خوێندنەوەکان
- Worst scenario at the horizon
- −33.6% of value
ژمارە، ڕێگا و سەرچاوەکان
| ساڵ | Orderly transition (% value) | Delayed, disorderly transition (% value) | Current policies (% value) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| 3 | −2.87 | −0.53 | −0.67 |
| 6 | −5.36 | −0.68 | −0.97 |
| 9 | −7.84 | −0.84 | −1.27 |
| 12 | −10.33 | −0.99 | −1.57 |
| 15 | −12.82 | −7.12 | −1.87 |
| 18 | −15.31 | −15.05 | −2.17 |
| 21 | −17.80 | −23.00 | −2.48 |
| 24 | −20.29 | −30.94 | −2.79 |
ڕێگاکان
- Climate scenario families NGFS (2023), Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors, Phase IV
- Climate stress test of the financial system Battiston and others (2017), Nature Climate Change 7
- Damage function Nordhaus (2017), Revisiting the social cost of carbon, PNAS 114
- Transmission channels BCBS (2021), Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels
- پەنجەی نادڵنیایی (مۆنتی کارلۆی پارامیتەر) Spiegelhalter, Pearson و Short (2011)، Visualising uncertainty about the future، Science 333
- هەستیاریی یەک-یەک (تۆرناد) Saltelli و ئەوانی دیکە (2008)، Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer، Wiley
داتا
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- بەرینی شارەکان Natural Earth
- بەندەرە دەریاییەکان Natural Earth
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus ERA5 (C3S/ECMWF) · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS) NASA AIRS · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
لە ناو شەش کۆڵەکەکەدا، بە سەرپەرشتیی Nexus Consortium
- تاقیکردنەوەکان Labs
- تێدا دروستکراوە Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Foundry
- تاقیکراوەتەوە لە Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Universe
- کۆدکراوە لە کەشوهەوا و سیستەمەکانی زەوی لە Standards
- بڵاوکراوەتەوە لە Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Reports
- فێرکراو لە کۆلێژی زانستی زەوی و ژینگە لە Academy
06پشتڕاستکردنەوە
How results are checked.
Models are back-tested against historical market episodes and crises. Results are compared with supervisory data and alternative specifications.
| بپشکنە | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Identification | Causal claims state how confounding was addressed |
| Robustness | Pricing results are checked across periods and markets |
| Data quality | Estimated inputs are labelled and their effect tested |
Relationships estimated in calm periods may break down in stress. Hidden leverage and interconnections are often unobserved.
07واژۆی کەرت
Where exposure in Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk travels.
The sectors that carry exposure in Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk and how a loss in one passes to the others, across portfolios and public finances.
گۆشەکان هەڵبژێرە · بەسەر هێڵەکاندا ڕابوەستە6 / 15 پەیوەندی
واژۆ
فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری و هاوبەشەکانی
فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری گواستنەوەی تۆزی گوڵ و خاک دەداتە خۆراک (0.6)، ڕێکخستنی حەوزی ئاو دەداتە ئاو (0.5) و بڵاوبوونەوەی زوونۆتیک و دەرمان دەداتە تەندروستی (0.4).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- کەرتەکان
- 4 لە 6
- پەیوەندییەکان
- 6 لە 15
- هاوبەستی
- 0.46 بەشی کۆی گشتی
بەهێزترین پەیوەندییەکانی لە کاردا
- خۆراک → فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری · گۆڕینی زەوی0.6
- ئاو → خۆراک · ئاودێری0.8
- ئاو → فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری · ڕەوتی ژینگەیی0.6
- خۆراک → تەندروستی · خۆراکپێدان0.7
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Exposure, loss and capital
What it means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Scenario pathways
How Financial economics and macro-finance at Climate and Nature Financial Risk could be stressed under the scenario families central banks and supervisors use.
| Scenario family | Transition risk | Physical risk | What a stress test asks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orderly | Early, gradual policy | نزم | Can the book absorb a steady repricing? |
| Disorderly | Late, abrupt policy | Lower to medium | What breaks under a sudden repricing and credit migration? |
| Hot house world | Limited policy | High and rising | Where do physical losses concentrate in collateral and insurance? |
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
جێگیریی دارایی stewards financial economics and macro-finance for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11پەیوەست
ئەو شوێنانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە لە ناو کۆنسۆرتیۆم بۆیان دەبات.
12پرسیارەکان
پرسیار و وەڵام.
What are the limits of financial economics and macro-finance in this field?
Relationships estimated in calm periods may break down in stress. Hidden leverage and interconnections are often unobserved.
How are results checked?
Models are back-tested against historical market episodes and crises. Results are compared with supervisory data and alternative specifications.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
ئەو canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
Reportsبەشداربە
لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks Allianceمەترسیی داراییی کەشوهەوا و سروشتئامادەیی دارایی و بیمەسیناریۆ و تاقیکردنەوەی گوشار
- ئیمەیڵGateway GW-GRAلەم لاپەڕەیەوە بینێرەبەڵگە، ڕاستکردنەوە، بابەت، ڕێگا، پێداچوونەوە، وەرگێڕان یان تێکردنی پڕۆفایل. بە نیشانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە دەگات، بۆ ئەوەی دەستکاریکەری خاوەنەکەی وەریبگرێت.
- Zenodoتەکیەی کراوەدایبنێ و بیدە بە کۆمەڵگاتۆماری خۆت لە Zenodo بە ORCID iD ی خۆت بڵاو بکەرەوە، پاشان لەوێ بیدە بە کۆمەڵگای Reports. سەرپەرشتیارەکان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکەن؛ DOI هەر هی تۆیە.
- ReportsGlobal Risks Allianceهەموو ڕێگاکانی بەشداری ببینەجۆرەکانی بەشداری، هەریەکە چۆن پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت، چ ناوبردنێک وەردەگریت، مۆڵەتەکە و ئەوەی هەرگیز وەرناگیرێت.
هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.
مەترسیی داراییی کەشوهەوا و سروشت
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.
یاسایی
بەڵگەنامە یاساییەکان.
نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.