Interbank and counterparty contagion
Bilateral exposures are arranged as a network and default cascades are simulated to see how losses spread from an initial failure and which institutions amplify them.
GRA · Banking Nexus
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Network science for banking contagion
Network science maps how banks are linked through interbank lending, derivatives, common asset holdings, payment flows and shared service providers. It shows where a single failure could cascade, which institutions are central to the system, and why contagion differs from the sum of individual bank risks.
01ناوەڕۆک
Network science for banking contagion in five parts.
02بەکارهێنان
What network science and contagion does here.
Network science and contagion study how the structure of connections among entities shapes the spread of failures, information and disease. It provides tools to analyse interdependent infrastructure, supply chains and financial سیستەمەکان. In financial stability, capital markets and investment and climate and hazards, network science identifies critical nodes and pathways through which shocks propagate across sectors. It informs targeted protection and diversification to limit cascades. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Overlapping portfolios and fire sales
Common holdings of securities and loans are mapped so that forced sales by one bank can be traced through price falls to losses at other holders.
Operational dependency mapping
Banks, payment systems, cloud and software providers are represented as a multilayer network to find concentration points whose failure would affect many institutions together.
03Spatial finance
Settlement dependencies, and what fails with a node.
How a failure at one financial centre can spread through settlement links. Design links, not real dependencies.
04داتا
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by network science and contagion on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| داتا | ڕۆڵ | ناونیشان |
|---|---|---|
| Supervisory large exposure and counterparty data | Bilateral links between institutions | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
| BIS international banking statistics | Cross-border exposures by country | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
| Payment system transaction data | Payment flow networks | چاودێریکراو |
| Registers of third-party arrangements | Service dependency links | REPORTED |
05چاودێری
Network analysis.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Network analysis
Banking · Network science for banking · Run R-5964
Single point of failureGRA · Banking Nexus
هێڵکاری پشتبەستن
nodes: assets · edges: dependencies
Most central nodes
| N3 | 0.25 | 4 | Critical |
| N4 | 0.16 | 12 | ئاسایی |
| N5 | 0.17 | 11 | ئاسایی |
| N6 | 0.18 | 8 | ئاسایی |
Cascade size under removal
06پشتڕاستکردنەوە
How results are checked.
Models are checked by reproducing observed cascades and outbreaks. Robustness of results to missing or uncertain links is tested.
| بپشکنە | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Missing link sensitivity | Results are tested under alternative reconstructions of unobserved exposures, and the range is reported |
| Historical replay | Models are checked against known stress episodes and failures |
| Behavioural assumptions | Assumptions about liquidity hoarding, fire sales and recovery rates are stated and varied |
Network data are often incomplete or confidential. Static network models may miss adaptive behaviour during cascades.
07Stress test
How a shock to assets becomes a system loss.
The equity the system loses after interbank contagion, against the initial hit, as leverage, interconnection and recovery rates change, the core of a macroprudential تاقیکردنەوەی فشاری. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Western Europe; the model itself is not tied to a place.
کۆنترۆڵەکان
- Fall in external assets
- 2.0%
- Leverage (assets over equity)
- 10 times
- Interbank share of assets
- 10%
- Recovery on interbank claims
- 40%
- Banks in the system
- 20
- Core banks
- 20% of banks
خوێندنەوەکان
- Equity lost to the initial shock
- 18.0%
- Equity lost after contagion
- 45.0%
- Added by contagion (DebtRank)
- 27.0 points
- Banks in default
- 0
ژمارە، ڕێگا و سەرچاوەکان
| Round | System equity lost (%) | Banks in default |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.00 | 0 |
| 1 | 28.80 | 0 |
| 2 | 35.28 | 0 |
| 3 | 39.17 | 0 |
| 4 | 41.50 | 0 |
| 5 | 42.90 | 0 |
| 6 | 43.74 | 0 |
| 7 | 44.24 | 0 |
| 8 | 44.55 | 0 |
| 9 | 44.73 | 0 |
| 10 | 44.84 | 0 |
| 11 | 44.90 | 0 |
| 12 | 44.94 | 0 |
| 13 | 44.96 | 0 |
| 14 | 44.98 | 0 |
| 15 | 44.99 | 0 |
| 16 | 44.99 | 0 |
| 17 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 18 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 19 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 20 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 21 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 22 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 23 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 24 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 25 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 26 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 27 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 28 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 29 | 45.00 | 0 |
| 30 | 45.00 | 0 |
ڕێگاکان
- DebtRank Battiston and others (2012), Scientific Reports 2:541
- Differential DebtRank Bardoscia and others (2015), PLOS ONE 10
- Contagion in financial networks Gai and Kapadia (2010), Proc. R. Soc. A 466
- Clearing in financial networks Eisenberg and Noe (2001), Management Science 47
- پەنجەی نادڵنیایی (مۆنتی کارلۆی پارامیتەر) Spiegelhalter, Pearson و Short (2011)، Visualising uncertainty about the future، Science 333
- هەستیاریی یەک-یەک (تۆرناد) Saltelli و ئەوانی دیکە (2008)، Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer، Wiley
داتا
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
لە ناو شەش کۆڵەکەکەدا، بە سەرپەرشتیی Nexus Consortium
- تاقیکردنەوەکان Labs
- تێدا دروستکراوە Banking Nexus in Foundry
- تاقیکراوەتەوە لە Banking Nexus in Universe
- کۆدکراوە لە دارایی، بیمە و ئابووری لە Standards
- بڵاوکراوەتەوە لە Banking Nexus in Reports
- فێرکراو لە کۆلێژی دارایی و ئابووری لە Academy
09شبیهسازی دووانە و زنجیرەیی
Trace a shock in network science for banking contagion to the balance sheet.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile بانکداری: the shocks it names, the سیستەمەکان and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
مەترسیدەرەکان
- Tropical cyclone
- بوومەلەرزە
- Ice-jam flood
- ئاگری دارستان
- Dam failure
- Sea-ice loss
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- پچڕانی کارەبای فراوان (لە خوارەوە دەستپێدەکات)
- ئاوارەبوونی بەکۆمەڵ (لە خوارەوە دەستپێدەکات)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
سیستەم و بەستنەوەکان
- بانکداری
- بانکە ناوەندییەکان و سەرپەرشتیارانی دارایی هاوبەستی
- بیمە و دووبارەبیمە هاوبەستی
- Cities and the built environment هاوبەستی
- دیجیتاڵ، پەیوەندییەکان و پلاتفۆرمەکان هاوبەستی
کۆنترۆڵەکان
NS-0دەستوور و بنەماکانNS-3UNIەکانی تۆماری مەترسی (ڕێزمان، خشتەی گواستنەوەی کۆن، دەسەڵاتی تەرخانکردن)NS-9UNIی ناوەڕۆکی (دامەزراندنەکان، نموونەکان، نموونەکانی پڕۆگرام)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11سەلماندن و چاودێری (بەڵگە، گواهییەکان، چاودێریی گونجان لەگەڵ zero-trust)NS-14پابەندبوون و هاوتاکردن لەگەڵ ستانداردی دەرەکیNRS-U2Universe platform profile: Banking NexusNRS-F2مەترسیی کەشوهەوا، سروشت و گواستنەوە لە بانکداریداNRS-H113خێزانی مەترسیدەر: ناسکیی سیستەمی دارایی (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-K20پڕۆفایلی پاکێتی بوار: گونجان لەگەڵ کەشوهەوا (DOMAIN-020)NRS-U8پڕۆفایلی پلاتفۆرمی Universe: Energy NexusNRS-D1گەشەپێدانی ئاگادار لە مەترسی و پشکنینی پڕۆژەکان
چاودێری
- BIS statistics (banking, credit, debt securities, property prices) (listed for reference)
- IMF data services (IFS, FSI, WEO, GFS) (listed for reference)
- World Development Indicators (listed for reference)
- GLEIF Golden Copy (LEI Level 1 and Level 2 data) (listed for reference)
- Bank capital to assets ratio (%)
- Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
- Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)
- (a) Number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and (b) number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults
جوگرافیای نموونە
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- ڕێژەی بارین، نیو کاتژمێری ڕابردوو (IMERG)، NASA GIBS
- ڕووناکییەکانی شەو ئەمشەو، پچڕانی کارەبا (VIIRS Day/Night Band)، NASA GIBS
- ئاوی ڕووی زەوی لە ڕێگەی هەورەوە، 30 م (ڕادارەی OPERA DSWx-S1)، NASA GIBS
- Carbon monoxide, smoke transport (AIRS), NASA GIBS
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
زانستی سیستەمەکان و مۆدێلسازی stewards network science and contagion for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Exposure, loss and capital
What network science for banking contagion means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Transmission channels
How a shock in network science for banking contagion reaches credit, market, underwriting, liquidity and operational risk, and feeds back.
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
12پەیوەست
ئەو شوێنانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە لە ناو کۆنسۆرتیۆم بۆیان دەبات.
13پرسیارەکان
پرسیار و وەڵام.
What are the limits of network science and contagion in this field?
Network data are often incomplete or confidential. Static network models may miss adaptive behaviour during cascades.
How are results checked?
Models are checked by reproducing observed cascades and outbreaks. Robustness of results to missing or uncertain links is tested.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
ئەو canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
Reportsبەشداربە
لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks AllianceBanking Nexusئامادەیی دارایی و بیمەسیناریۆ و تاقیکردنەوەی گوشار
- ئیمەیڵGateway GW-GRAلەم لاپەڕەیەوە بینێرەبەڵگە، ڕاستکردنەوە، بابەت، ڕێگا، پێداچوونەوە، وەرگێڕان یان تێکردنی پڕۆفایل. بە نیشانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە دەگات، بۆ ئەوەی دەستکاریکەری خاوەنەکەی وەریبگرێت.
- Zenodoتەکیەی کراوەدایبنێ و بیدە بە کۆمەڵگاتۆماری خۆت لە Zenodo بە ORCID iD ی خۆت بڵاو بکەرەوە، پاشان لەوێ بیدە بە کۆمەڵگای Reports. سەرپەرشتیارەکان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکەن؛ DOI هەر هی تۆیە.
- ReportsGlobal Risks Allianceهەموو ڕێگاکانی بەشداری ببینەجۆرەکانی بەشداری، هەریەکە چۆن پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت، چ ناوبردنێک وەردەگریت، مۆڵەتەکە و ئەوەی هەرگیز وەرناگیرێت.
هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.
Banking Nexus
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.
یاسایی
بەڵگەنامە یاساییەکان.
نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.