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GRA · 气候与自然金融风险

空间金融资本与危害、风险暴露和转型的交汇之处

气候与自然金融风险平台的气候与大气科学

Climate science supplies the hazard evidence and scenarios behind climate financial risk: observed trends, projections for warming levels and the uncertainty around them. On this platform it is read for what financial users need from it, at the horizons and locations of their exposures.

提出咨询 Back to STEM foundation of Climate and Nature Financial Risk
01登记

Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk on the record.

方法记录STEM 方法
  1. 方法气候与大气科学
  3. 应用于气候与自然金融风险
  4. 数据3 inputs
  6. 规范页面STEM 公共资源
02申请

What climate and atmospheric science does here.

Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. It provides the basis for understanding changes in hazard frequency and intensity that propagate through economic and social 系统. In climate and hazards, biodiversity and nature and capital markets and investment, climate projections frame long-horizon scenarios for infrastructure, insurance, food systems and public finance. They allow correlated hazards across regions and sectors to be examined together. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Hazard projections for portfolios

Projections of flood, heat and drought at asset locations are drawn from model ensembles for several warming levels, with the spread shown for each.

Tail and compound hazards

Low-likelihood high-impact outcomes assessed by the IPCC are explained so that institutions can include them in severe scenarios.

Scenario physical variables

Physical variables in NGFS scenarios are traced back to their climate model sources, so users know what they represent.

03空间金融

风险暴露、危害与超越概率曲线。

哪些地方在严重年份造成损失，以及损失向再保险蔓延的程度。示意性设计数值。

气旋和地震带下的沿海风险暴露，以及它所产生的损失曲线。示意性设计值，并非模型输出或价格。
04数据

该方法使用的输入。

Datasets and records used by climate and atmospheric science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.

数据角色标签
CMIP6 projectionsFuture hazard模型估算
ERA5 reanalysisHistorical baseline模型估算
IPCC assessmentsAssessed confidence已报告
05监测

Forecast verification.

团队遵循该方法时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。

预报检验

Climate and nature financial risk · Climate and atmospheric science · Run R-0660

Skill above referenceGRA · 气候与自然金融风险

Forecast with range

方法卡

方法
气候与大气科学
编号
climatology
Lead times
1 to 8 steps
标签
模型估算

Verification by lead time

held-out period

T+20.390.200.09Marginal
T+40.280.290.37Skilful
T+60.410.150.23Skilful
T+80.180.280.25Marginal
Forecast verification: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Climate and nature financial risk.示例名称和示意数值；是设计方案，并非记录或实时系统。
06验证

结果如何核查。

Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.

核查如何开展
Ensemble spreadResults are shown across climate models
Downscaling validationLocal projections are compared with observations
Confidence languageIPCC confidence terms accompany findings

Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.

07情景模型

投资组合面临的转型风险和实体风险。

Three scenario families after the NGFS framework move a sector portfolio through carbon costs and warming damages; the transmission view follows the losses to lenders, investors, public finances and households. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Southeast Asia; the model itself is not tied to a place.

控制措施

期末碳价，有序路径
每吨 CO2 200
无序转型前的延迟
占期限的 50%
转嫁给客户的成本
50%
当前较工业化前的升温幅度
1.30°C
现行政策下每十年升温幅度
0.25°C
损害系数
每 °C² 0.24%
未来年数
25 年

读数

时间跨度末的最差情景
占价值的 −33.6%
数字、方法与来源
年份有序转型（价值百分比）延迟、无序转型（价值 %）现行政策（价值百分比）
0−0.38−0.38−0.38
3−2.87−0.53−0.67
6−5.36−0.68−0.97
9−7.84−0.84−1.27
12−10.33−0.99−1.57
15−12.82−7.12−1.87
18−15.31−15.05−2.17
21−17.80−23.00−2.48
24−20.29−30.94−2.79

方法

  1. 气候情景系列 NGFS (2023), Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors, Phase IV
  2. 金融体系的气候压力测试 Battiston and others (2017), Nature Climate Change 7
  3. 损害函数 Nordhaus（2017），Revisiting the social cost of carbon，PNAS 114
  4. 传导渠道 BCBS (2021), Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels
  5. 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  6. 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

数据

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • 城市范围 Natural Earth
  • 海港 Natural Earth
  • 过去一年的每日气温（经 Open-Meteo 获取的 ERA5） Open-Meteo.com（CC BY 4.0），Copernicus ERA5（C3S/ECMWF）· 登记册 open-meteo.public-pages
  • 地表气温，白天（AIRS） NASA AIRS · 登记册 nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
投资组合面临的转型风险与物理风险。示意性教学模型：它依据控件设定的数值运行，而不是实测数据。方法：气候情景系列（NGFS（2023），Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors，Phase IV）；金融体系气候压力测试（Battiston 等（2017），Nature Climate Change 7）；损害函数（Nordhaus（2017），Revisiting the social cost of carbon，PNAS 114）。

贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头

08关联

依赖该方法的主题。

09孪生与级联模拟器

Trace a shock to the balance sheet.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 气候风险标准: the shocks it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

灾害

  • 海平面上升
  • Coastal flood （在下游引发）
  • Storm surge （在下游引发）
  • High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
  • Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
  • Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
  • Estuary flood (set off downstream)
  • Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
  • Wetland loss (set off downstream)
  • Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
  • Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
  • Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
  • 大规模流离失所（在下游引发）

控制措施

  • NS-0 章程与原则
  • NS-1 维持社会运转的各个 UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)
  • NS-3 风险记录 UNI（语法、旧编码对照、分配机构）
  • NS-3b 数据集与产品元数据规范（STAC、DCAT、PROV-O）
  • NS-9 情境 UNI（部署、实例、计划实例）
  • NS-11 验证与监测（证据、证明、零信任符合性观测）
  • NS-14 符合性及与外部标准的对照
  • NRS-H65 危害类别：超越行星边界（NHS-1 planet.boundary）
  • NRS-H62 危害类别：复合与多危害事件（NHS-1 sys.compound）
  • NRS-H71 危害类别：深时与宇宙灾难（NHS-1 planet.deep-time）
  • NRS-H79 危害类别：精神卫生危机（NHS-1 health.mental）
  • NRS-H75 危害类别：气候敏感性疾病（NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive）
  • NRS-H7 危害类别：大尺度环流异常（NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode）

观测

  • ERA5 再分析（Copernicus Climate Data Store）（仅列作参考）
  • CMIP6 气候预估（Copernicus Climate Data Store）（仅列作参考）
  • NGFS Scenario Explorer（仅列作参考）
  • INFORM Risk Index（仅列作参考）
  • 每100,000人中因灾害死亡、失踪和直接受影响的人数
  • Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
  • 灾害造成的直接经济损失与全球国内生产总值之比

示例地理范围

  • 太平洋岛国：150 个六边形网格
  • 今夜夜间灯光与停电（VIIRS 昼夜波段），NASA GIBS
  • 穿透云层的地表水，30 m（OPERA DSWx-S1 雷达），NASA GIBS
  • 过去半小时降雨率（IMERG），NASA GIBS
  • Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
10管理责任

由谁维护该方法。

气候与灾害 stewards climate and atmospheric science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Climate and atmospheric science

11部门特征

Where exposure in Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk travels.

The sectors that carry exposure in Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk and how a loss in one passes to the others, across portfolios and public finances.

选择角点 · 悬停连线6 / 15 项关系

签名

生物多样性及其合作伙伴

生物多样性为粮食提供授粉和土壤（0.6），为水提供流域调节（0.5），为健康带来人畜共患病溢出和药物（0.4）。

W · E · I · F · H · B

部门
4 共 6
关系
6 共 15
耦合
0.46 占总量份额

当前最强的关系

  • 粮食 → 生物多样性 · 土地转换0.6
  • 水 → 粮食 · 灌溉0.8
  • 水 → 生物多样性 · 生态流量0.6
  • 粮食 → 健康 · 营养0.7
典型城市区域的教学数值，不是任何地点的测量值。耦合是所涉关系强度的总和，以全部十五种关系的占比表示。
12已关联

本页在整个联合体中通向何处。

13风险暴露、损失与资本

What it means for exposure, loss and capital.

风险官、监管者或财政部会要求的风险暴露、损失、情景和资本视图，以及它们据以报告的框架。结构遵循监管和精算实务。数值为说明性：绝非价格、评级或建议。

情景路径

How Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk could be stressed under the scenario families central banks and supervisors use.

有序无序温室世界202520302035204020452050高低
情景系列转型风险物理风险压力测试问什么
有序早期、渐进的政策较低账面能否承受持续的重新定价？
无序迟缓而突然的政策中低在突然重新定价和信用迁移下，什么会出现问题？
温室世界有限政策高且上升实体损失集中在抵押品和保险的哪些环节？
按 NGFS 定义的情景类别；曲线为示意性的综合压力指数，并非 NGFS 变量或预测。
NGFS 气候情景 · 央行与监管机构绿色金融网络IFRS S2 气候相关披露 · ISSBTCFD 建议 · 金融稳定理事会 TCFD有效管理气候相关金融风险的原则 · 巴塞尔银行监管委员会
14问题

问题与解答。

What are the limits of climate and atmospheric science in this field?
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
结果如何核查？
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的各个 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

全球风险联盟（Global Risks Alliance）气候与自然金融风险金融与保险准备度情景与压力测试

切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查；发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权，赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。

气候与自然金融风险

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法律

本网站上的地图、数据和图表仅作为背景和一般信息展示。它们不是建议、预测或预警；信息的局限见免责声明和数据说明。