Hazard projections for portfolios
Projections of flood, heat and drought at asset locations are drawn from model ensembles for several warming levels, with the spread shown for each.
GRA · Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Climate science supplies the hazard evidence and scenarios behind climate financial risk: observed trends, projections for warming levels and the uncertainty around them. On this platform it is read for what financial users need from it, at the horizons and locations of their exposures.
01تۆمارکردن
Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- ڕێگازانستی کەشوهەوا و هەواگۆڕ
- پارێزەرکەشوهەوا و مەترسیدەرەکان
- Applied inمەترسیی داراییی کەشوهەوا و سروشت
- داتا3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02بەکارهێنان
What climate and atmospheric science does here.
Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. It provides the basis for understanding changes in hazard frequency and intensity that propagate through economic and social سیستەمەکان. In climate and hazards, biodiversity and nature and capital markets and investment, climate projections frame long-horizon scenarios for infrastructure, insurance, food systems and public finance. They allow correlated hazards across regions and sectors to be examined together. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Tail and compound hazards
Low-likelihood high-impact outcomes assessed by the IPCC are explained so that institutions can include them in severe scenarios.
Scenario physical variables
Physical variables in NGFS scenarios are traced back to their climate model sources, so users know what they represent.
03Spatial finance
Exposure, hazard and the exceedance curve.
Which places drive loss in a severe year, and how far it reaches into reinsurance. Illustrative design values.
04داتا
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by climate and atmospheric science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| داتا | ڕۆڵ | ناونیشان |
|---|---|---|
| CMIP6 projections | Future hazard | مۆدێلکراو |
| ERA5 reanalysis | Historical baseline | مۆدێلکراو |
| IPCC assessments | Assessed confidence | REPORTED |
05چاودێری
Forecast verification.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
پشتڕاستکردنەوەی پێشبینی
Climate and nature financial risk · Climate and atmospheric science · Run R-0660
Skill above referenceGRA · Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Forecast with range
Method card
- ڕێگا
- زانستی کەشوهەوا و هەواگۆڕ
- Reference
- climatology
- Lead times
- 1 to 8 steps
- ناونیشان
- مۆدێلکراو
Verification by lead time
held-out period
| T+2 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.09 | Marginal |
| T+4 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.37 | Skilful |
| T+6 | 0.41 | 0.15 | 0.23 | Skilful |
| T+8 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.25 | Marginal |
06پشتڕاستکردنەوە
How results are checked.
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
| بپشکنە | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Ensemble spread | Results are shown across climate models |
| Downscaling validation | Local projections are compared with observations |
| Confidence language | IPCC confidence terms accompany findings |
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
07Scenario model
Transition and physical risk on a portfolio.
Three scenario families after the NGFS framework move a sector portfolio through carbon costs and warming damages; the transmission view follows the losses to lenders, investors, public finances and households. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Southeast Asia; the model itself is not tied to a place.
کۆنترۆڵەکان
- Carbon price at the horizon, orderly path
- 200 per tCO2
- Delay before a disorderly transition
- 50% of horizon
- Cost passed to customers
- 50%
- Warming today above pre-industrial
- 1.30°C
- Warming per decade, current policies
- 0.25°C
- Damage coefficient
- 0.24% per °C²
- ساڵەکانی داهاتوو
- 25 years
خوێندنەوەکان
- Worst scenario at the horizon
- −33.6% of value
ژمارە، ڕێگا و سەرچاوەکان
| ساڵ | Orderly transition (% value) | Delayed, disorderly transition (% value) | Current policies (% value) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| 3 | −2.87 | −0.53 | −0.67 |
| 6 | −5.36 | −0.68 | −0.97 |
| 9 | −7.84 | −0.84 | −1.27 |
| 12 | −10.33 | −0.99 | −1.57 |
| 15 | −12.82 | −7.12 | −1.87 |
| 18 | −15.31 | −15.05 | −2.17 |
| 21 | −17.80 | −23.00 | −2.48 |
| 24 | −20.29 | −30.94 | −2.79 |
ڕێگاکان
- Climate scenario families NGFS (2023), Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors, Phase IV
- Climate stress test of the financial system Battiston and others (2017), Nature Climate Change 7
- Damage function Nordhaus (2017), Revisiting the social cost of carbon, PNAS 114
- Transmission channels BCBS (2021), Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels
- پەنجەی نادڵنیایی (مۆنتی کارلۆی پارامیتەر) Spiegelhalter, Pearson و Short (2011)، Visualising uncertainty about the future، Science 333
- هەستیاریی یەک-یەک (تۆرناد) Saltelli و ئەوانی دیکە (2008)، Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer، Wiley
داتا
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- بەرینی شارەکان Natural Earth
- بەندەرە دەریاییەکان Natural Earth
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus ERA5 (C3S/ECMWF) · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS) NASA AIRS · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
لە ناو شەش کۆڵەکەکەدا، بە سەرپەرشتیی Nexus Consortium
- تاقیکردنەوەکان Labs
- تێدا دروستکراوە Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Foundry
- تاقیکراوەتەوە لە Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Universe
- کۆدکراوە لە کەشوهەوا و سیستەمەکانی زەوی لە Standards
- بڵاوکراوەتەوە لە Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Reports
- فێرکراو لە کۆلێژی زانستی زەوی و ژینگە لە Academy
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09شبیهسازی دووانە و زنجیرەیی
Trace a shock to the balance sheet.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile ستانداردەکانی مەترسیی کەشوهەوا: the shocks it names, the سیستەمەکان and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
مەترسیدەرەکان
- Sea-level rise
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
- Estuary flood (set off downstream)
- Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
- Wetland loss (set off downstream)
- Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
- Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
- Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
- ئاوارەبوونی بەکۆمەڵ (لە خوارەوە دەستپێدەکات)
سیستەم و بەستنەوەکان
کۆنترۆڵەکان
NS-0دەستوور و بنەماکانNS-1ئەو UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3UNIەکانی تۆماری مەترسی (ڕێزمان، خشتەی گواستنەوەی کۆن، دەسەڵاتی تەرخانکردن)NS-3bپرۆفایلی میتاداتای کۆمەڵە داتا و بەرهەم (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NS-9UNIی ناوەڕۆکی (دامەزراندنەکان، نموونەکان، نموونەکانی پڕۆگرام)NS-11سەلماندن و چاودێری (بەڵگە، گواهییەکان، چاودێریی گونجان لەگەڵ zero-trust)NS-14پابەندبوون و هاوتاکردن لەگەڵ ستانداردی دەرەکیNRS-H65خێزانی مەترسیدەر: پێشێلکردنی سنوورەکانی گۆی زەوی (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H62خێزانی مەترسیدەر: ڕووداوە تێکەڵ و فرەمەترسیدەرەکان (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H71خێزانی مەترسیدەر: کارەساتە کەونی و کاتی قووڵەکان (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H79خێزانی مەترسیدەر: قەیرانەکانی تەندروستیی دەروونی (NHS-1 health.mental)NRS-H75خێزانی مەترسیدەر: نەخۆشییە هەستیارەکان بە کەشوهەوا (NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive)NRS-H7خێزانی مەترسیدەر: نائاساییبوونی سووڕانەوەی گەورە (NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)
چاودێری
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- NGFS Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
جوگرافیای نموونە
- Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
- ڕووناکییەکانی شەو ئەمشەو، پچڕانی کارەبا (VIIRS Day/Night Band)، NASA GIBS
- ئاوی ڕووی زەوی لە ڕێگەی هەورەوە، 30 م (ڕادارەی OPERA DSWx-S1)، NASA GIBS
- ڕێژەی بارین، نیو کاتژمێری ڕابردوو (IMERG)، NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
کەشوهەوا و مەترسیدەرەکان stewards climate and atmospheric science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11واژۆی کەرت
Where exposure in Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk travels.
The sectors that carry exposure in Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk and how a loss in one passes to the others, across portfolios and public finances.
گۆشەکان هەڵبژێرە · بەسەر هێڵەکاندا ڕابوەستە6 / 15 پەیوەندی
واژۆ
فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری و هاوبەشەکانی
فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری گواستنەوەی تۆزی گوڵ و خاک دەداتە خۆراک (0.6)، ڕێکخستنی حەوزی ئاو دەداتە ئاو (0.5) و بڵاوبوونەوەی زوونۆتیک و دەرمان دەداتە تەندروستی (0.4).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- کەرتەکان
- 4 لە 6
- پەیوەندییەکان
- 6 لە 15
- هاوبەستی
- 0.46 بەشی کۆی گشتی
بەهێزترین پەیوەندییەکانی لە کاردا
- خۆراک → فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری · گۆڕینی زەوی0.6
- ئاو → خۆراک · ئاودێری0.8
- ئاو → فرەجۆریی زیندەوەری · ڕەوتی ژینگەیی0.6
- خۆراک → تەندروستی · خۆراکپێدان0.7
12پەیوەست
ئەو شوێنانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە لە ناو کۆنسۆرتیۆم بۆیان دەبات.
13Exposure, loss and capital
What it means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Scenario pathways
How Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk could be stressed under the scenario families central banks and supervisors use.
| Scenario family | Transition risk | Physical risk | What a stress test asks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orderly | Early, gradual policy | نزم | Can the book absorb a steady repricing? |
| Disorderly | Late, abrupt policy | Lower to medium | What breaks under a sudden repricing and credit migration? |
| Hot house world | Limited policy | High and rising | Where do physical losses concentrate in collateral and insurance? |
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
14پرسیارەکان
پرسیار و وەڵام.
What are the limits of climate and atmospheric science in this field?
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
How are results checked?
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
ئەو canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
Reportsبەشداربە
لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks Allianceمەترسیی داراییی کەشوهەوا و سروشتئامادەیی دارایی و بیمەسیناریۆ و تاقیکردنەوەی گوشار
- ئیمەیڵGateway GW-GRAلەم لاپەڕەیەوە بینێرەبەڵگە، ڕاستکردنەوە، بابەت، ڕێگا، پێداچوونەوە، وەرگێڕان یان تێکردنی پڕۆفایل. بە نیشانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە دەگات، بۆ ئەوەی دەستکاریکەری خاوەنەکەی وەریبگرێت.
- Zenodoتەکیەی کراوەدایبنێ و بیدە بە کۆمەڵگاتۆماری خۆت لە Zenodo بە ORCID iD ی خۆت بڵاو بکەرەوە، پاشان لەوێ بیدە بە کۆمەڵگای Reports. سەرپەرشتیارەکان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکەن؛ DOI هەر هی تۆیە.
- ReportsGlobal Risks Allianceهەموو ڕێگاکانی بەشداری ببینەجۆرەکانی بەشداری، هەریەکە چۆن پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت، چ ناوبردنێک وەردەگریت، مۆڵەتەکە و ئەوەی هەرگیز وەرناگیرێت.
هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.
مەترسیی داراییی کەشوهەوا و سروشت
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.
یاسایی
بەڵگەنامە یاساییەکان.
نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.