Hazard projections for portfolios
Projections of flood, heat and drought at asset locations are drawn from model ensembles for several warming levels, with the spread shown for each.
GRA · Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Climate science supplies the hazard evidence and scenarios behind climate financial risk: observed trends, projections for warming levels and the uncertainty around them. On this platform it is read for what financial users need from it, at the horizons and locations of their exposures.
01Qeyd
Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- RêbazZanista avhewa û atmosferê
- ParêzvanAvhewa û metirsî
- Applied inXetera fînansî ya avhewa û xwezayê
- Dane3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Serlêdan
What climate and atmospheric science does here.
Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. It provides the basis for understanding changes in hazard frequency and intensity that propagate through economic and social pergalan. In climate and hazards, biodiversity and nature and capital markets and investment, climate projections frame long-horizon scenarios for infrastructure, insurance, food systems and public finance. They allow correlated hazards across regions and sectors to be examined together. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Tail and compound hazards
Low-likelihood high-impact outcomes assessed by the IPCC are explained so that institutions can include them in severe scenarios.
Scenario physical variables
Physical variables in NGFS scenarios are traced back to their climate model sources, so users know what they represent.
03Spatial finance
Exposure, hazard and the exceedance curve.
Which places drive loss in a severe year, and how far it reaches into reinsurance. Illustrative design values.
04Dane
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by climate and atmospheric science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Dane | Rol | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|
| CMIP6 projections | Future hazard | MODELKIRÎ |
| ERA5 reanalysis | Historical baseline | MODELKIRÎ |
| IPCC assessments | Assessed confidence | REPORTED |
05Çavdêrî bike
Forecast verification.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Piştrastkirina pêşbîniyê
Climate and nature financial risk · Climate and atmospheric science · Run R-0660
Skill above referenceGRA · Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Forecast with range
Method card
- Rêbaz
- Zanista avhewa û atmosferê
- Reference
- climatology
- Lead times
- 1 to 8 steps
- Nîşan
- MODELKIRÎ
Verification by lead time
held-out period
| T+2 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.09 | Marginal |
| T+4 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.37 | Skilful |
| T+6 | 0.41 | 0.15 | 0.23 | Skilful |
| T+8 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.25 | Marginal |
06Erêkirin
How results are checked.
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
| Kontrol bikin | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Ensemble spread | Results are shown across climate models |
| Downscaling validation | Local projections are compared with observations |
| Confidence language | IPCC confidence terms accompany findings |
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
07Scenario model
Transition and physical risk on a portfolio.
Three scenario families after the NGFS framework move a sector portfolio through carbon costs and warming damages; the transmission view follows the losses to lenders, investors, public finances and households. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast. The map on this page shows Southeast Asia; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Kontrol
- Carbon price at the horizon, orderly path
- 200 per tCO2
- Delay before a disorderly transition
- 50% of horizon
- Cost passed to customers
- 50%
- Warming today above pre-industrial
- 1.30°C
- Warming per decade, current policies
- 0.25°C
- Damage coefficient
- 0.24% per °C²
- Salên pêş
- 25 years
Xwendin
- Worst scenario at the horizon
- −33.6% of value
Jimar, rêbaz û çavkanî
| Sal | Orderly transition (% value) | Delayed, disorderly transition (% value) | Current policies (% value) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| 3 | −2.87 | −0.53 | −0.67 |
| 6 | −5.36 | −0.68 | −0.97 |
| 9 | −7.84 | −0.84 | −1.27 |
| 12 | −10.33 | −0.99 | −1.57 |
| 15 | −12.82 | −7.12 | −1.87 |
| 18 | −15.31 | −15.05 | −2.17 |
| 21 | −17.80 | −23.00 | −2.48 |
| 24 | −20.29 | −30.94 | −2.79 |
Rêbaz
- Climate scenario families NGFS (2023), Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors, Phase IV
- Climate stress test of the financial system Battiston and others (2017), Nature Climate Change 7
- Damage function Nordhaus (2017), Revisiting the social cost of carbon, PNAS 114
- Transmission channels BCBS (2021), Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels
- Pankeya nediyarîyê (Monte Carlo ya parametreyan) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- Hesasiyeta yek-yek (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Dane
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Dirêjahiyên bajarî Natural Earth
- Benderên behrê Natural Earth
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus ERA5 (C3S/ECMWF) · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS) NASA AIRS · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
Li seranserê şeş stûnan, bi pêşengiya Nexus Consortium
- Ceribandin Labs
- Hatiye avakirin di Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Foundry
- Tê ceribandin li Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Universe
- Hatiye kodkirin di Avhewa û pergalên Erdê di Standards de
- Hatiye weşandin di Climate and Nature Financial Risk in Reports
- Tê de tê dayîn Fakulteya Zanistên Erd û Jîngehê li Academy
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Simulatorê cêwî û kaskade
Trace a shock to the balance sheet.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Standardên xetera avhewayê: the shocks it names, the pergalan and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Metirsî
- Sea-level rise
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
- Estuary flood (set off downstream)
- Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
- Wetland loss (set off downstream)
- Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
- Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
- Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
- Koçberiya girseyî (li aliyê jêr çê dibe)
Pergal û girêdan
Kontrol
NS-0Destûr û prensîbNS-1Çavdêrxaneya UNI and the artefact catalogue (grammar v0.2: domain, sector, region and environment segments)NS-3UNIyên tomara xetereyê (rêzimanî, nexşeya veguhastina ji pergala kevin, desthilata veqetandinê)NS-3bProfîla metadaneyên koma daneyan û berheman (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NS-9UNI yên çarçoveyî (belavkirin, mînak, mînakên bernameyê)NS-11Piştrastkirin û çavdêrî (delîl, erêkirin, çavdêriya lihevhatina zero-trust)NS-14Lihevhatin û nexşeya li standardên derveyîNRS-H65Malbata metirsiyê: Binpêkirinên sînorên gerstêrkê (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H62Malbata metirsiyê: Bûyerên tevhev û pir-metirsî (NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H71Malbata metirsiyê: Felaketên kozmîk û yên dema kûr (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H79Malbata metirsiyê: Krîzên tenduristiya derûnî (NHS-1 health.mental)NRS-H75Malbata metirsiyê: Nexweşiyên hesas li hember avhewayê (NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive)NRS-H7Malbata metirsiyê: Anomaliyên gera mezin (NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)
Çavdêrî
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- NGFS Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
Erdnîgariya mînakê
- Pacific Island states: 150 hexagonal cells
- Ronahiyên şevê îşev, qutbûn (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Ava rûyê erdê di nav ewr re, 30 m (radara OPERA DSWx-S1), NASA GIBS
- Rêjeya barînê, nîv saeta dawî (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Avhewa û metirsî stewards climate and atmospheric science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Îmzeya sektorê
Where exposure in Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk travels.
The sectors that carry exposure in Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk and how a loss in one passes to the others, across portfolios and public finances.
Goşeyan hilbijêre · li xetan bigere6 / 15 têkilî
Îmze
Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran û hevkarên wê
Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran tozkirin û axê dide xwarinê (0.6), rêkxistina hewzê avê dide avê (0.5) û derbasbûna zoonotîk û dermanan dide tenduristiyê (0.4).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sektor
- 4 ji 6
- Têkilî
- 6 ji 15
- Girêdan
- 0.46 para ji tevahiyê
Têkiliyên herî xurt ên di lîstikê de
- Xwarin → Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran · veguherandina erdê0.6
- Av → Xwarin · avdan0.8
- Av → Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran · herikên jîngehî0.6
- Xwarin → Tenduristî · xwarina saxlem0.7
12Girêdayî
Ev rûpel li ser Konsorsiyûmê te ber bi kû ve dibe.
13Exposure, loss and capital
What it means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Scenario pathways
How Climate and atmospheric science at Climate and Nature Financial Risk could be stressed under the scenario families central banks and supervisors use.
| Scenario family | Transition risk | Physical risk | What a stress test asks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orderly | Early, gradual policy | Kêmtir | Can the book absorb a steady repricing? |
| Disorderly | Late, abrupt policy | Lower to medium | What breaks under a sudden repricing and credit migration? |
| Hot house world | Limited policy | High and rising | Where do physical losses concentrate in collateral and insurance? |
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
14Pirs
Pirs û bersiv.
What are the limits of climate and atmospheric science in this field?
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
How are results checked?
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
Çavdêrxaneya canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkTevkarî bike
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks AllianceXetera fînansî ya avhewa û xwezayêAmadebûna fînans û sîgortayêSenaryo û ceribandina stresê
- E-nameGateway GW-GRAJi vê rûpelê bişîninDelîl, rastkirin, doz, rêbaz, nirxandin, wergerandin an têketina profîlê. Bi nîşana vê rûpelê digihîje, ji ber vê yekê edîtorê xwediyê wê wê bistîne.
- ZenodoDepoya vekirîWê razînin û ji civakê re bişîninTomara xwe li Zenodo bi ORCID iD ya xwe biweşînin, paşê wê li wir ji civaka Reports re bişînin. Kurator wê vedikolin; DOI ya we dimîne.
- rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkGlobal Risks AllianceHemû rêyên beşdariyê bibîneCureyên beşdariyê, her yek çawa tê nirxandin, tu çi navlêkirinê distînî, lîsans û tiştê ku qet nayê qebûlkirin.
Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Xetera fînansî ya avhewa û xwezayê
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Hiqûqî
Belgeyên hiqûqî.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.