GRA · Insurance Nexus
空间金融资本与危害、风险暴露和转型的交汇之处
分析与不确定性
Insurance risk is measured with two families of method that answer different questions: experience-based actuarial techniques that read a portfolio’s own history, and catastrophe models that simulate events no portfolio has yet seen. This page compares them, shows where each fails, and explains why non-stationary hazards force insurers to show trend-adjusted and historical views side by side.
事情发生的顺序。
- 01草案已引用来源，已附标签
- 02证据核查每个数值均可追溯
- 03独立审查已申报的利益冲突
- 04版本连同其局限一并发布
- 05更正新版本，绝不进行无声修改
Actuarial and catastrophe methods, side by side.
| 方法 | 强度 | 限制 |
|---|---|---|
| Experience rating and credibility | Uses the portfolio’s own loss record | Fails for rare perils and changing hazard |
| 巨灾建模 | Simulates many events, including ones never observed | Vulnerability curves and event-set assumptions dominate uncertainty |
| Generalised linear models for pricing factors | Transparent rating structures | Assume a stable relationship between factors and loss |
| 极值理论 | Principled tail estimation from limited data | Sensitive to threshold choice and non-stationarity |
流程如何运行。
Process explorer · Process
Analysis and uncertainty: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
10 steps·4 个阶段
流程
Analysis and uncertainty: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 驱动因素
02 评估
- 05应对措施带来的风险Component · Supervisor当气候应对措施未能实现目标，或因权衡取舍或负面副作用，就会产生来自应对措施的风险。
- 06脆弱性Component · Supervisor易受不利影响的倾向或习性。它包括对伤害的敏感性以及应对与适应能力的缺乏。
- 07风险Model · Insurance NexusRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 响应
- 08风险管理与响应步骤 · 监管机构风险管理是指降低不利后果发生的可能性或规模的计划、行动、战略或政策。
- 09剩余风险Record · Supervisor在适应与减缓努力之后仍然存在的气候影响风险。适应可能在地区与群体之间重新分配风险。
04 决定
- 10由责任方作出决定Decision · Supervisor该框架不指定单一决策者。关于应对措施的决定由责任方依据其自身规则作出。
依据公开来源对某一外部标准或方法的概述。它描述的是该框架的内容，而非任何运行记录。它并不表明 Nexus 或任何合作伙伴执行、认证或批准某一步骤。关口是该方法的一个步骤，绝不是 Nexus 的批准。
When the past is a biased sample.
Loss histories assume the hazard that produced them still applies. Where warming changes the frequency or intensity of a peril, historical burning cost becomes biased. Insurance Nexus methods therefore separate a trend-adjusted hazard view from the observed history and show both. The actuarial treatment continues at 精算与量化风险; the climate science at the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) climate projections.
如何报告不确定性。
- 01
说明假设
每项分析都列出其假设及其所依赖的数据。
- 02
尽可能量化
在报告中心估计值的同时报告区间与置信度。
- 03
验证与比较
模型会对照观测数据进行核查，并在可能时与其他模型进行对照。
- 04
发布限制
分析无法说明的内容与其能够说明的内容并列陈述。
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
方法是开放的吗？
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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法律文件。
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