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GRA · Insurance Nexus

Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition

Analysis and uncertainty

Insurance risk is measured with two families of method that answer different questions: experience-based actuarial techniques that read a portfolio’s own history, and catastrophe models that simulate events no portfolio has yet seen. This page compares them, shows where each fails, and explains why non-stationary hazards force insurers to show trend-adjusted and historical views side by side.

پرسیارێک بنێرە Back to Professional research
01زنجیرە

ئەو ڕیزبەندییەی شتەکان تێیدا ڕوودەدەن.

  1. 01پێشنووسسەرچاوەکان ناوبراون، ناونیشانەکان لکێنراون
  2. 02پشکنینی بەڵگەهەر بەهایەک شوێنکەوتووە
  3. 03پێداچوونەوەی سەربەخۆململانێی ڕاگەیەندراو
  4. 04وەشانبە سنوورەکانیەوە بڵاوکراوەتەوە
  5. 05ڕاستکردنەوەوەشانێکی نوێ، هەرگیز دەستکاریی بێدەنگ
02ڕێگاکان

The methods in use.

  1. Actuarial mathematicsLoss reserving with development triangles · Experience rating and credibilityApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  2. تیۆری بەهای زۆرداری و مەترسیی کلکLarge-loss pricing for excess layers · Tail measures for solvency capitalApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  3. ئەگەر و ئامارFrequency and severity modelling · Bayesian updating of assumptionsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  4. زانستی کەشوهەوا و هەواگۆڕClimate-conditioned hazard catalogues · Supervisory climate stress scenariosApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  5. زیرەکی دەستکرد و فێربوونی ماشێنExposure enrichment from imagery · Fraud and claims triage · Fairness testing of pricing modelsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
03Actuarial and catastrophe methods

Actuarial and catastrophe methods, side by side.

ڕێگاStrengthسنوور
Experience rating and credibilityUses the portfolio’s own loss recordFails for rare perils and changing hazard
مۆدێلسازیی کارەساتSimulates many events, including ones never observedVulnerability curves and event-set assumptions dominate uncertainty
Generalised linear models for pricing factorsTransparent rating structuresAssume a stable relationship between factors and loss
Extreme value theoryPrincipled tail estimation from limited dataSensitive to threshold choice and non-stationarity
04پرۆسە

چۆن پرۆسەکە کار دەکات.

Process explorer · Process

Analysis and uncertainty: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 قۆناغ

پرۆسە

Analysis and uncertainty: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01مەترسیدەرDataset · SupervisorThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02ڕووبەڕووبوونDataset · SupervisorThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03هەستیاریDataset · SupervisorThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · SupervisorThe ability of سیستەمەکان, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.

  2. 02 هەڵسەنگاندن

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · SupervisorRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06لاوازیComponent · SupervisorThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07مەترسیModel · Insurance NexusRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.

  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · SupervisorRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09مەترسیی ماوەRecord · SupervisorThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.

  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · SupervisorThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

05Non-stationarity

When the past is a biased sample.

Loss histories assume the hazard that produced them still applies. Where warming changes the frequency or intensity of a peril, historical burning cost becomes biased. Insurance Nexus methods therefore separate a trend-adjusted hazard view from the observed history and show both. The actuarial treatment continues at مەترسی ئەکچوەری و بڕی; the climate science at the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) climate projections.

06نادڵنیایی

How uncertainty is reported.

  1. 01

    State assumptions

    Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.

  2. 02

    Quantify where possible

    Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.

  3. 03

    Validate and compare

    Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.

  4. 04

    Publish limits

    What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.

07سەرچاوەکان

Where this page’s references lead.

ئەو لەش و بەڵگەنامانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیەیان لەگەڵ دەخوێنرێتەوە. دۆخ و وەشانەکان دەگۆڕێن؛ هەر بەستەرێک دەچێتە لای لەشی دەرکەر.

08پرسیارەکان

پرسیار و وەڵام.

Are the methods open?
Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. Code and data follow their own licences and access terms, listed in the source register.
Reportsبەشداربە

لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Global Risks AllianceInsurance Nexusئامادەیی دارایی و بیمەمەترسی و خۆڕاگریی کەرتی جیهانی

هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.

Insurance Nexus

Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.

زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.

Propose a readiness pilot بینینی هەموو ڕێگاکانی پەیوەندی
یاسایی

نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.