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GRA · Insurance Nexus

مالی فضاییجایی که سرمایه به مخاطره، مواجهه و گذار برمی‌خورد

تحلیل و عدم قطعیت

Insurance risk is measured with two families of method that answer different questions: experience-based actuarial techniques that read a portfolio’s own history, and catastrophe models that simulate events no portfolio has yet seen. This page compares them, shows where each fails, and explains why non-stationary hazards force insurers to show trend-adjusted and historical views side by side.

ثبت پرس‌وجو Back to Professional research
01توالی

ترتیبی که رویدادها در آن رخ می‌دهند.

  1. 01پیش‌نویسمنابع ذکرشده، برچسب‌ها درج‌شده
  2. 02وارسی شواهدهر مقدار ردیابی‌شده
  3. 03بازبینی مستقلتعارض‌های اعلام‌شده
  4. 04ویراستمنتشرشده همراه با محدودیت‌هایش
  5. 05اصلاحیهنسخه‌ای نو، نه ویرایشی بی‌صدا
02روش‌ها

The methods in use.

  1. ریاضیات اکچوئریLoss reserving with development triangles · Experience rating and credibilityApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  2. نظریهٔ مقدار فرین و ریسک دمLarge-loss pricing for excess layers · Tail measures for solvency capitalApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  3. احتمال و آمارFrequency and severity modelling · Bayesian updating of assumptionsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  4. علوم اقلیم و جوClimate-conditioned hazard catalogues · Supervisory climate stress scenariosApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
  5. هوش مصنوعی و یادگیری ماشینExposure enrichment from imagery · Fraud and claims triage · Fairness testing of pricing modelsApplied here
    Canonical · STEM Commons
03Actuarial and catastrophe methods

Actuarial and catastrophe methods, side by side.

روشStrengthحد
Experience rating and credibilityUses the portfolio’s own loss recordFails for rare perils and changing hazard
مدل‌سازی فاجعهSimulates many events, including ones never observedVulnerability curves and event-set assumptions dominate uncertainty
Generalised linear models for pricing factorsTransparent rating structuresAssume a stable relationship between factors and loss
Extreme value theoryPrincipled tail estimation from limited dataSensitive to threshold choice and non-stationarity
04فرایند

نحوهٔ اجرای فرایند.

Process explorer · Process

Analysis and uncertainty: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 مرحله

فرایند

Analysis and uncertainty: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01مخاطرهDataset · SupervisorThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02مواجههDataset · SupervisorThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03حساسیتDataset · SupervisorThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · SupervisorThe ability of سامانه‌ها, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.

  2. 02 ارزیابی

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · SupervisorRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06آسیب‌پذیریComponent · SupervisorThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07ریسکModel · Insurance NexusRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.

  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · SupervisorRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09ریسک باقیماندهRecord · SupervisorThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.

  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · SupervisorThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

05Non-stationarity

When the past is a biased sample.

Loss histories assume the hazard that produced them still applies. Where warming changes the frequency or intensity of a peril, historical burning cost becomes biased. Insurance Nexus methods therefore separate a trend-adjusted hazard view from the observed history and show both. The actuarial treatment continues at ریسک بیمه‌سنجی و کمّی; the climate science at the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) climate projections.

06عدم قطعیت

How uncertainty is reported.

  1. 01

    State assumptions

    Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.

  2. 02

    Quantify where possible

    Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.

  3. 03

    Validate and compare

    Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.

  4. 04

    Publish limits

    What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.

07منابع

Where this page’s references lead.

نهادها و اسنادی که این صفحه بر پایهٔ آن‌ها خوانده می‌شود. وضعیت و ویراست‌ها تغییر می‌کنند؛ هر پیوند به نهاد صادرکننده می‌رود.

08پرسش‌ها

پرسش و پاسخ.

Are the methods open?
Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. Code and data follow their own licences and access terms, listed in the source register.
گزارش‌هامشارکت

از این صفحه شواهد مشارکت دهید.

گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

⁨Global Risks Alliance⁩Insurance Nexusآمادگی مالی و بیمهریسک و تاب‌آوری بخشی جهانی

هرگز داده شخصی، جزئیات حساس زیرساخت یا چیزی را که حق اشتراکش را ندارید نفرستید. هر مشارکت پیش از استفاده داوری می‌شود؛ ارسال آن حق مؤلفی یا ویرایشی نمی‌دهد و حمایت مالی هرگز یافته‌ای را نمی‌خرد.

Insurance Nexus

یک پرسش دربارهٔ مواجهه یا سرمایه را نزد اتحاد مطرح کنید.

اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.

یک آزمایش آمادگی پیشنهاد دهید دیدن همهٔ مسیرهای تماس
حقوقی

نقشه‌ها، داده‌ها و ارقام این سایت برای زمینه و اطلاعات عمومی نشان داده می‌شوند. توصیه، پیش‌بینی یا هشدار نیستند؛ حدود این اطلاعات در سلب مسئولیت‌ها و اعلامیه‌های داده بیان شده است.