Debt management strategy
Alternative borrowing strategies are compared on cost and risk across scenarios, following the medium-term debt management strategy approach.
GRA · Public Finance and Sovereign Debt
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Decision analysis under uncertainty for public finance and sovereign debt
Decision analysis structures choices under uncertainty. On this platform it helps frame debt management strategy, fiscal rule design, guarantee approval and investment selection, making trade-offs and value judgements explicit for the public servants who decide.
01ناوەڕۆک
Decision analysis under uncertainty for public finance and sovereign debt in five parts.
02بەکارهێنان
What decision analysis under uncertainty does here.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In sovereign and public finance, development finance and disaster and crisis, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Fiscal rule design
Rule options are compared for flexibility, simplicity and enforceability, with escape clauses and their triggers made explicit.
Guarantee approval
Criteria for approving guarantees weigh policy benefits against expected cost and tail risk, with each choice recorded.
03چاودێری
Uncertainty analysis.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Uncertainty analysis
Public finance and sovereign debt · Decision analysis · Run R-4487
Sensitivity rankedGRA · Public Finance and Sovereign Debt
Total-order sensitivity
Output distribution
تێکردنەکان
| Public debt | Beta | of GDP, stated | expert elicitation |
| Gross financing needs | Uniform | of GDP, stated | expert elicitation |
| Interest to revenue | ئاسایی | of revenue, stated | expert elicitation |
| Share of FX debt | ئاسایی | of debt, stated | expert elicitation |
04داتا
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| داتا | ڕۆڵ | ناونیشان |
|---|---|---|
| Debt portfolio data | Cost and risk | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
| Scenario projections | Outcome ranges | مۆدێلکراو |
| Rule and legal texts | Constraints | ئامارە بڵاوکراوەکان |
05Scenario model
Sovereign debt paths and the odds of breaching a threshold.
The distribution of debt paths, and the share above a threshold of concern at the horizon, that sovereign investors and rating analysts read from a fan chart. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
- Median, 25% to 75% and 10% to 90% bands
- No shocks
کۆنترۆڵەکان
- Debt today
- 70% of GDP
- Effective nominal interest rate
- 5.0%
- Nominal GDP growth
- 4.5%
- Primary balance
- −0.5% of GDP
- Volatility of growth
- 2.0 points
- Volatility of the interest rate
- 1.0 points
- ساڵەکانی داهاتوو
- 10 years
- Threshold of concern
- 90% of GDP
خوێندنەوەکان
- Median debt at the horizon
- 78% of GDP
- Paths above the threshold at the horizon
- 2%
- Primary balance that stabilises debt
- 0.3% of GDP
ژمارە، ڕێگا و سەرچاوەکان
| ساڵ | 10% | 25% | Median | 75% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 |
| 1 | 68.9 | 69.8 | 70.7 | 71.8 | 72.6 |
| 2 | 68.9 | 70.2 | 71.6 | 73.1 | 74.2 |
| 3 | 69.3 | 70.6 | 72.4 | 74.2 | 76.1 |
| 4 | 69.4 | 71.2 | 73.3 | 75.5 | 77.2 |
| 5 | 69.6 | 71.7 | 74.1 | 76.7 | 78.4 |
| 6 | 70.0 | 72.4 | 75.0 | 77.8 | 79.7 |
| 7 | 70.7 | 73.1 | 75.7 | 78.6 | 81.0 |
| 8 | 71.2 | 73.5 | 76.8 | 79.8 | 83.3 |
| 9 | 71.7 | 74.3 | 77.6 | 80.9 | 84.1 |
| 10 | 72.0 | 75.0 | 78.3 | 82.0 | 85.6 |
ڕێگاکان
- Debt dynamics and the interest-growth differential Blanchard (2019), Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109
- Stochastic fan charts Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006), IMF Staff Papers 53
- Sovereign risk and debt sustainability framework IMF (2022), Staff Guidance Note on the SRDSF
داتا
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
لە ناو شەش کۆڵەکەکەدا، بە سەرپەرشتیی Nexus Consortium
- تاقیکردنەوەکان Labs
- تێدا دروستکراوە Public Finance and Sovereign Debt in Foundry
- تاقیکراوەتەوە لە Public Finance and Sovereign Debt in Universe
- کۆدکراوە لە دارایی، بیمە و ئابووری لە Standards
- بڵاوکراوەتەوە لە Public Finance and Sovereign Debt in Reports
- فێرکراو لە کۆلێژی دارایی و ئابووری لە Academy
06پشتڕاستکردنەوە
How results are checked.
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
| بپشکنە | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Options stated | All options, including the status quo, are listed |
| Trade-offs explicit | Cost-risk trade-offs are shown, not hidden in a single score |
| Robustness | Choices are tested across scenarios |
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
07Exposure, loss and capital
What it means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Capital, solvency and fiscal indicators
The indicators a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance reads first on decision analysis under uncertainty for public finance and sovereign debt.
| Indicator | Unit | Who reads it | Framework |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public debt | % of GDP | Ministries of finance, IMF | Debt Sustainability Framework |
| Gross financing needs | % of GDP per year | Ministries of finance, investors | Debt Sustainability Framework |
| Contingent liabilities | % of GDP, by source | Ministries of finance | Fiscal risk statements |
| Interest to revenue | % of revenue | Ministries of finance, rating users | Public finance statistics |
| Sovereign spread | basis points over a benchmark | Investors, debt managers | Market data |
| CET1 ratio | % of risk-weighted assets | Banks, supervisors | Basel framework |
| Liquidity coverage ratio | % of stressed outflows | Banks, central banks | Basel framework |
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
09Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
بەڕێوەبردنی مەترسیی سیستەمی stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
10پەیوەست
ئەو شوێنانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە لە ناو کۆنسۆرتیۆم بۆیان دەبات.
11پرسیارەکان
پرسیار و وەڵام.
What are the limits of decision analysis under uncertainty in this field?
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
How are results checked?
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
ئەو canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
Reportsبەشداربە
لەم لاپەڕەیەوە بەڵگە پێشکەش بکە.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks Allianceداراییی گشتی و قەرزی سەروەرانەئامادەیی دارایی و بیمەمەترسی و خۆڕاگریی سیستەمی وڵات
- ئیمەیڵGateway GW-GRAلەم لاپەڕەیەوە بینێرەبەڵگە، ڕاستکردنەوە، بابەت، ڕێگا، پێداچوونەوە، وەرگێڕان یان تێکردنی پڕۆفایل. بە نیشانەی ئەم لاپەڕەیە دەگات، بۆ ئەوەی دەستکاریکەری خاوەنەکەی وەریبگرێت.
- Zenodoتەکیەی کراوەدایبنێ و بیدە بە کۆمەڵگاتۆماری خۆت لە Zenodo بە ORCID iD ی خۆت بڵاو بکەرەوە، پاشان لەوێ بیدە بە کۆمەڵگای Reports. سەرپەرشتیارەکان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکەن؛ DOI هەر هی تۆیە.
- ReportsGlobal Risks Allianceهەموو ڕێگاکانی بەشداری ببینەجۆرەکانی بەشداری، هەریەکە چۆن پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت، چ ناوبردنێک وەردەگریت، مۆڵەتەکە و ئەوەی هەرگیز وەرناگیرێت.
هەرگیز داتای کەسی، وردەکاریی هەستیاری ژێرخان یان هیچ شتێک مەنێرە کە مافی بڵاوکردنەوەت نییە. بەشدارییەک پێش بەکارهێنان پێداچوونەوەی بۆ دەکرێت؛ ناردنی ماف نابەخشێت بە نووسەرایەتی یان بەڕێوەبردنی ڕاگەیاندن، و پاڵپشتی دارایی هەرگیز دۆزینەوەیەک ناکڕێت.
داراییی گشتی و قەرزی سەروەرانە
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
زانیاری و پرسیار ئەمڕۆ کراوەن. پرسیارێک ژمارەی ئاماژەی پێدەدرێت و هەنگاوی دواتر دیاری دەکات؛ داواکاری، پارەدان، تەرخانکردنی کۆمپیوتەر و تۆمارکردن تەنیا کاتێک دەکرێنەوە کە تیم، مەرج و توانای پێداچوونەوەیان هەبێت.
یاسایی
بەڵگەنامە یاساییەکان.
نەخشە، داتا و وێنەکانی ئەم ماڵپەڕە بۆ ناوەڕۆک و زانیاریی گشتی پیشان دراون. ئامۆژگاری، پێشبینی یان ئاگادارکردنەوە نین؛ سنوورەکانی زانیارییەکە لە ڕەتکردنەوەی بەرپرسیارێتی و ئاگاداریی داتادا دەستنیشان کراون.