Vulnerability by construction class
Damage functions are developed by construction type, height, age and code era from engineering analysis and claims.
GRA · Reinsurance and Catastrophe
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Structural and earthquake engineering for reinsurance and catastrophe
Structural engineering explains how buildings and infrastructure respond to wind, ground shaking, flood and fire. In catastrophe reinsurance it supplies the vulnerability functions that convert hazard intensity into damage and loss.
01Register
Structural and earthquake engineering for reinsurance and catastrophe on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodStructural and earthquake engineering
- StewardCities and Built Environment
- Applied inReinsurance and Catastrophe
- Data3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What structural and earthquake engineering does here.
Structural and earthquake engineering designs buildings, bridges and other structures to carry loads safely, including those from earthquakes, wind and floods. It determines how much damage the built environment suffers when hazards occur. In insurance and catastrophe, climate and hazards and disaster and crisis, structural engineering supplies vulnerability functions for loss models and guides retrofit priorities. It links hazard intensity to disruption of housing, services and supply chains. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Building code effectiveness
Loss differences between buildings of different code eras are studied to show how much stronger standards reduce damage.
Post-event damage surveys
Field surveys after events record damage patterns by building type, which are then used to recalibrate vulnerability functions.
03Spatial finance
Assets on the grid, and the portfolio they make.
Where a portfolio’s assets sit, and how much of its value is most exposed. Hypothetical assets, not an assessment.
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by structural and earthquake engineering on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Claims by construction type | Calibration | REPORTED |
| Engineering test results | Component behaviour | OBSERVED |
| Post-event surveys | Damage patterns | OBSERVED |
05Monitor
Fragility analysis.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Fragility analysis
Reinsurance and catastrophe · Structural and earthquake · Run R-8382
Test campaignGRA · Reinsurance and Catastrophe
Damage states
| Slight | 0.18 | 0.6 | Cosmetic |
| Moderate | 0.32 | 0.7 | Repairable |
| Extensive | 0.63 | 0.7 | Major |
| Complete | 0.9 | 0.7 | Replace |
Method card
- Method
- Structural and earthquake engineering
- Standard
- lognormal fragility
- Reviewer
- independent
- Label
- MODELLED
Fragility curves
06Validation
How results are checked.
Designs are checked against codes, laboratory and shake-table tests, and observed performance after events. Peer review is used for unusual structures.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Claims back-testing | Functions reproduce observed damage ratios |
| Secondary modifiers | The effect of roof, opening and foundation features is documented |
| Regional applicability | Functions are checked for the building stock where applied |
Existing building stock is often poorly documented. Interaction of multiple hazards and degradation over time is incompletely represented.
07Loss model
Loss exceedance, average annual loss and probable maximum loss.
The loss a portfolio in the footprint can expect per year and at the 1 in 100 and 1 in 250 levels that insurers and lenders price, from the same three blocks every catastrophe model uses. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Gulf of Mexico coast; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Typical annual peak ground acceleration (location)
- 0.04 g peak ground acceleration
- Spread of extremes (scale)
- 0.05 g peak ground acceleration
- Intensity at which half the value is lost
- 0.45 g peak ground acceleration
- Dispersion of vulnerability
- 0.60
- Share of value in the hazard footprint
- 40%
- Protection standard (return period)
- 50 years
Readouts
- Average annual loss
- 0.18% of value
- Loss at 1 in 100 years
- 7.9% of value
- Loss at 1 in 250 years
- 11.1% of value
- Intensity at 1 in 100 years
- 0.27 g peak ground acceleration
Numbers, methods and sources
| Return period (years) | Intensity (g peak ground acceleration) | Loss (% of value) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| 4 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| 7 | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| 13 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| 24 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| 44 | 0.23 | 0.00 |
| 82 | 0.26 | 7.23 |
| 154 | 0.29 | 9.40 |
| 287 | 0.32 | 11.60 |
| 536 | 0.35 | 13.79 |
| 1,000 | 0.39 | 15.92 |
Methods
- Gumbel extreme-value hazard Gumbel (1958), Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press
- Lognormal fragility (vulnerability) FEMA (2003), HAZUS-MH Technical Manual
- Exceedance-probability curve and average annual loss Grossi and Kunreuther (2005), Catastrophe Modeling, Springer
- Levee effect Di Baldassarre and others (2013), Socio-hydrology, HESS 17
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Rivers Natural Earth
- Urban extents Natural Earth
- Cities Natural Earth
- Earthquakes M4.5+, past week (USGS) U.S. Geological Survey · register usgs.earthquake.summary-feeds
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG) NASA GPM IMERG Early · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus GloFAS · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Built-up and settlement extent, 2010 (HBASE, Landsat) CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE · register sedac.context-urban-layers
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Reinsurance and Catastrophe in Foundry
- Tested at Reinsurance and Catastrophe in Universe
- Codified in Finance, Insurance and the Economy in Standards
- Published in Reinsurance and Catastrophe in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academy
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Twin and cascade simulator
Trace a shock to the balance sheet.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Insurance and reinsurance: the shocks it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Tropical cyclone
- Earthquake
- Ice-jam flood
- Wildfire
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Rockfall (set off downstream)
- Tsunami (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Insurance and reinsurance
- Banking Coupling
- Development finance institutions Coupling
- Humanitarian and civil society Coupling
- Agriculture and land use Coupling
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-F3Insurance, catastrophe risk and protection gapsNRS-H113Hazard family: Financial-system fragility (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-U17Universe platform profile: Insurance NexusNRS-H71Hazard family: Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-F8Parametric and index-based risk transfer
Observation
- OECD Data Explorer (incl. Creditor Reporting System, insurance and pension statistics) (listed for reference)
- Insurance statistics (listed for reference)
- USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product
- (a) Number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and (b) number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults
Example geography
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Carbon monoxide, smoke transport (AIRS), NASA GIBS
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Cities and Built Environment stewards structural and earthquake engineering for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Exposure, loss and capital
What it means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Exposure and loss at return periods
How losses from structural and earthquake engineering for reinsurance and catastrophe grow with severity, gross and net of reinsurance, against capital.
| Return period | Annual probability | Gross loss | Net loss | Net, capital = 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in 10 | 0.10 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 1 in 50 | 0.02 | 33 | 21 | 21 |
| 1 in 100 | 0.01 | 46 | 27 | 27 |
| 1 in 250 | 0.004 | 68 | 39 | 39 |
| Average annual loss | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
12Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
13Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of structural and earthquake engineering in this field?
Existing building stock is often poorly documented. Interaction of multiple hazards and degradation over time is incompletely represented.
How are results checked?
Designs are checked against codes, laboratory and shake-table tests, and observed performance after events. Peer review is used for unusual structures.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks AllianceReinsurance and CatastropheFinance and Insurance ReadinessMethods and Technical
- EmailGateway GW-GRASend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGlobal Risks AllianceSee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
Reinsurance and Catastrophe
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
Legal
Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.