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GRA · 再保险与巨灾

空间金融资本与危害、风险暴露和转型的交汇之处

面向再保险与巨灾的结构与地震工程

Structural engineering explains how buildings and infrastructure respond to wind, ground shaking, flood and fire. In catastrophe reinsurance it supplies the vulnerability functions that convert 危害强度 into damage and loss.

提出咨询 Back to STEM foundation of Reinsurance and Catastrophe
01登记

Structural and earthquake engineering for reinsurance and catastrophe on the record.

方法记录STEM 方法
  1. 方法Structural and 地震 engineering
  3. 应用于再保险与巨灾
  4. 数据3 inputs
  6. 规范页面STEM 公共资源
02申请

What structural and earthquake engineering does here.

Structural and 地震 engineering designs buildings, bridges and other structures to carry loads safely, including those from earthquakes, wind and floods. It determines how much damage the built environment suffers when hazards occur. In insurance and catastrophe, climate and hazards and disaster and crisis, structural engineering supplies vulnerability functions for loss models and guides retrofit priorities. It links 危害强度 to disruption of housing, services and supply chains. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Vulnerability by construction class

Damage functions are developed by construction type, height, age and code era from engineering analysis and claims.

Building code effectiveness

Loss differences between buildings of different code eras are studied to show how much stronger standards reduce damage.

Post-event damage surveys

Field surveys after events record damage patterns by building type, which are then used to recalibrate vulnerability functions.

03空间金融

电网上的资产及其构成的投资组合。

Where a portfolio’s assets sit, and how much of its value is most exposed. Hypothetical assets, not an assessment.

位于真实城镇的十六项资产，以及风险暴露最高地点占投资组合价值的比例。假设的资产和设计评分，并非建议。
04数据

该方法使用的输入。

Datasets and records used by structural and 地震 engineering on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.

数据角色标签
Claims by construction type校准已报告
Engineering test resultsComponent behaviour观测
Post-event surveysDamage patterns观测
05监测

Fragility analysis.

团队遵循该方法时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。

Fragility analysis

Reinsurance and catastrophe · Structural and earthquake · Run R-8382

Test campaignGRA · 再保险与巨灾

Damage states

Slight0.180.6Cosmetic
中等0.320.7Repairable
Extensive0.630.7Major
已完成0.90.7Replace

方法卡

方法
结构与地震工程
标准
lognormal fragility
审稿人
独立
标签
模型估算

Fragility curves

Fragility analysis: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Reinsurance and catastrophe.示例名称和示意数值；是设计方案，并非记录或实时系统。
06验证

结果如何核查。

Designs are checked against codes, laboratory and shake-table tests, and observed performance after events. Peer review is used for unusual structures.

核查如何开展
Claims back-testingFunctions reproduce observed damage ratios
Secondary modifiersThe effect of roof, opening and foundation features is documented
Regional applicabilityFunctions are checked for the building stock where applied

Existing building stock is often poorly documented. Interaction of multiple hazards and degradation over time is incompletely represented.

07损失模型

损失超越、年均损失和可能最大损失。

处于覆盖范围内的投资组合每年预期损失，以及保险公司和贷款机构定价所依据的 1/100 和 1/250 水平下的预期损失，均来自每个 巨灾模型 uses. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Gulf of Mexico coast; the model itself is not tied to a place.

控制措施

Typical annual peak ground acceleration (location)
0.04 g peak ground acceleration
极端值的扩散（尺度）
0.05 g peak ground acceleration
损失一半价值时的强度
0.45 g peak ground acceleration
脆弱性的离散程度
0.60
危害足迹中的价值占比
40%
防护标准（重现期）
50 年

读数

年均损失
0.18% of value
百年一遇（1/100）的损失
7.9% of value
250 年一遇（1/250）的损失
11.1% of value
百年一遇（1/100）的强度
0.27 g peak ground acceleration
数字、方法与来源
重现期（年）Intensity (g peak ground acceleration)损失（占价值的 %）
1−0.020.00
20.060.00
40.100.00
70.130.00
130.170.00
240.200.00
440.230.00
820.267.23
1540.299.40
2870.3211.60
5360.3513.79
1,0000.3915.92

方法

  1. Gumbel 极值危害 Gumbel (1958), Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press
  2. 对数正态易损性（脆弱性） FEMA (2003), HAZUS-MH Technical Manual
  3. 超越概率曲线与年均损失 Grossi and Kunreuther (2005), Catastrophe Modeling, Springer
  4. 堤防效应 Di Baldassarre and others (2013), Socio-hydrology, HESS 17
  5. 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  6. 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

数据

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • 河流 Natural Earth
  • 城市范围 Natural Earth
  • 城市 Natural Earth
  • 过去一周 M4.5+ 地震（USGS） 美国地质调查局 · 登记 usgs.earthquake.summary-feeds
  • 降雨率，最近半小时（IMERG） NASA GPM IMERG Early · 登记 nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
  • 河流流量预报，30 天及范围（GloFAS via Open-Meteo） Open-Meteo.com（CC BY 4.0）、Copernicus GloFAS · 登记 open-meteo.public-pages
  • 建成区与居民点范围，2010 年（HBASE，Landsat） CIESIN/Columbia、NASA SEDAC HBASE · 登记 sedac.context-urban-layers
损失超越概率、年均损失和可能最大损失。示意性教学模型：它依据控件设定的数值运行，而不是实测数据。方法：Gumbel 极值危害（Gumbel（1958），Statistics of Extremes，Columbia University Press）；对数正态脆弱性曲线（FEMA（2003），HAZUS-MH Technical Manual）；超越概率曲线与年均损失（Grossi 和 Kunreuther（2005），Catastrophe Modeling，Springer）。

贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头

08关联

依赖该方法的主题。

09孪生与级联模拟器

Trace a shock to the balance sheet.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 保险与再保险: the shocks it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

灾害

  • 热带气旋
  • 地震
  • 冰塞洪水
  • 野火
  • Storm surge （在下游引发）
  • Intense rainfall （在下游引发）
  • 河流洪水（在下游引发）
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • 危险海浪（在下游引发）
  • 大范围停电（在下游引发）
  • 大规模流离失所（在下游引发）
  • 沿海洪水（在下游引发）
  • Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
  • Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
  • Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
  • Slope slide (set off downstream)
  • Rockfall (set off downstream)
  • Tsunami (set off downstream)

控制措施

  • NS-0 章程与原则
  • NS-3 风险记录 UNI（语法、旧编码对照、分配机构）
  • NS-9 情境 UNI（部署、实例、计划实例）
  • NS-10 政策和条款（机器可读的义务：定义、约束、评估和执行）
  • NS-11 验证与监测（证据、证明、零信任符合性观测）
  • NS-14 符合性及与外部标准的对照
  • NRS-F3 保险、巨灾风险与保护缺口
  • NRS-H113 危害类别：金融体系脆弱性（NHS-1 soc.financial-system）
  • NRS-U17 宇宙 platform profile: Insurance Nexus
  • NRS-H71 危害类别：深时与宇宙灾难（NHS-1 planet.deep-time）
  • NRS-H65 危害类别：超越行星边界（NHS-1 planet.boundary）
  • NRS-F8 参数化与指数型风险转移

观测

  • OECD Data Explorer (incl. Creditor Reporting System, insurance and pension statistics) (listed for reference)
  • Insurance statistics (listed for reference)
  • USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product
  • (a) Number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and (b) number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults

示例地理范围

  • 西欧：152 个六边形网格
  • 过去半小时降雨率（IMERG），NASA GIBS
  • 今夜夜间灯光与停电（VIIRS 昼夜波段），NASA GIBS
  • 穿透云层的地表水，30 m（OPERA DSWx-S1 雷达），NASA GIBS
  • Carbon monoxide, smoke transport (AIRS), NASA GIBS
10管理责任

由谁维护该方法。

城市与建成环境 stewards structural and 地震 engineering for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Structural and earthquake engineering

11风险暴露、损失与资本

What it means for exposure, loss and capital.

风险官、监管者或财政部会要求的风险暴露、损失、情景和资本视图，以及它们据以报告的框架。结构遵循监管和精算实务。数值为说明性：绝非价格、评级或建议。

各重现期的风险暴露与损失

How losses from structural and earthquake engineering for reinsurance and catastrophe grow with severity, gross and net of reinsurance, against capital.

1/10（10 年一遇）1/50（50 年一遇）1/100（100 年一遇）1/250（250 年一遇）总额扣除再保险后的净额800
重现期年概率总损失净损失净额，资本 = 100
1/10（10 年一遇）0.10141010
1/50（50 年一遇）0.02332121
1/100（100 年一遇）0.01462727
1/250（250 年一遇）0.004683939
年均损失3.12.22.2
一个示例投资组合的示意性损失指数（资本 = 100）：保险公司和监管机构所读的超越概率形式。并非任何机构的数据，也非价格或评级。
NGFS 气候情景 · 央行与监管机构绿色金融网络IFRS S2 气候相关披露 · ISSBTCFD 建议 · 金融稳定理事会 TCFD有效管理气候相关金融风险的原则 · 巴塞尔银行监管委员会
12已关联

本页在整个联合体中通向何处。

13问题

问题与解答。

What are the limits of structural and earthquake engineering in this field?
Existing building stock is often poorly documented. Interaction of multiple hazards and degradation over time is incompletely represented.
结果如何核查？
Designs are checked against codes, laboratory and shake-table tests, and observed performance after events. Peer review is used for unusual structures.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的各个 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

全球风险联盟（Global Risks Alliance）再保险与巨灾金融与保险准备度方法与技术

切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查；发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权，赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。

再保险与巨灾

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