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GRAPayments and Market InfrastructureIn development
Payments and Market Infrastructure · Financial-system transmission

Financial-system transmission

Disruption in payment and market infrastructure travels in two directions: from real-world shocks such as power outages, cyber attacks and provider failures into the financial system, and from financial stress such as market turmoil into infrastructures and back into the real economy. This page shows the main channels of transmission, at sector level and from published and aggregated evidence.

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Publisher
The Global Risks Alliance
Field
Financial stability, Cyber and digital resilience, Digital public infrastructure
Status
In development
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

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Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For financial-system transmission, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on population density and night lights with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on World; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · GDACS · CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASESources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Context: CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, and NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): Global Human Built-up And Settlement Extent (HBASE) 2010; Seto, Guneralp and Hutyra 2012, Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030; Global Urban Heat Island (UHI) Data Set, 2013.
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026

GeographyFor financial-system transmission, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on population density and night lights with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on World; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

STEM methods
6
Canonical methods this field applies
Topics
8
Subject pages in the field
Counterparts
5
Platforms in shared fields at GCRI, GRF and GRA
Report series
2
Nexus Reports series it contributes to
01In brief

The short answer.

Risk transmission in Payments and Market Infrastructure is the path by which physical, transition, technology and systemic shocks reach the sector and travel onward through balance sheets, markets and the real economy. Analysis uses aggregated, sector-level indicators such as value and volume of payments by system and system availability; it assesses no individual firm and is not investment advice.

02Canvas

One field, three institutions.

Canvas · one field, three institutionsDesign, not a record
One field, three institutions: Payments and Market Infrastructure and its counterpartsGCRI studies the field as science, GRF governs and convenes it, GRA builds shared financial understanding; the Nexus Universe tests work across them and the competent authorities decide. Design of the arrangement, not a record.

Fig.How GCRI, GRF and GRA share one field while the authorities decide. Design, not a record.

03Console

Field overview, in outline.

The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.

Field overview: the screen's structure, terms and states for Payments and market infrastructure.Placeholder names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
04Channels

How shocks reach the infrastructures.

Operational

Technology and provider failure

Outages at infrastructures, messaging networks, cloud or telecommunications providers halt processing. Science: Cybersecurity and Digital Resilience.

Liquidity

Payments that do not arrive

When payments stop, participants that expected incoming funds cannot make outgoing payments, spreading liquidity shortfalls.

Market

Volatility and collateral

Sharp price moves raise margin calls at central counterparties, draining liquidity from members and their clients.

05Concentration

Why infrastructure transmits rather than absorbs.

  • Gridlock: if one large participant stops paying, others wait for incoming funds and payments queue.
  • Margin spirals: CCP margin calls in volatility drain liquidity from members and their clients.
  • Shared providers: one messaging or cloud outage affects many systems at once.
  • Cross-border links: correspondent and FX settlement chains extend a domestic failure abroad.
06Governance

Cooperative oversight.

Systems used across borders are overseen cooperatively by several central banks. Governance of public infrastructure is discussed at GRF cyber and public infrastructure; topic depth at third-party concentration.

07Into the real economy

How infrastructure stress reaches people and firms.

When retail payments fail, merchants cannot accept cards, employees may not receive wages on time and benefits can be delayed. Households with little cash or savings are most affected. When wholesale systems fail, banks may be unable to settle obligations, affecting interbank markets and the implementation of monetary policy. When securities settlement is disrupted, trades fail, and participants may hold unexpected exposures.

Confidence is a channel in its own right. Visible outages can prompt people to withdraw cash or switch providers, and repeated disruptions can undermine trust in digital payments generally. This is why fallback arrangements and clear public communication are part of infrastructure resilience.

08Transmission paths

Typical sequences.

  1. 01

    Provider outage to payment halt

    A failure at a shared technology provider stops several payment services at once, across institutions that appear independent.

  2. 02

    Cyber attack to data integrity

    Corrupted data in a settlement system force a halt while positions are reconciled, delaying settlement across markets.

  3. 03

    Market shock to margin calls

    Extreme volatility raises initial and variation margin, forcing members to raise liquidity quickly and sometimes sell assets.

  4. 04

    Cross-border link failure

    Disruption at a correspondent or link between systems delays international payments and trade finance.

09Analysis and limits

Sector-level, aggregated, with stated uncertainty.

Analysis uses aggregated and published data and methods from network science and contagion and reliability and resilience engineering. It does not assess individual infrastructures or firms, recommend transactions or constitute advice. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) does not operate, connect to or test any live payment system, and it assesses no individual institution.

10Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Transmission channelThe route by which a shock reaches financial institutions' balance sheets.
ContagionTransmission of losses or stress from one institution or market to others.
Second-round effectsFeedback from bank losses to the economy, such as tighter credit deepening a downturn.
Common exposureHoldings of the same or similar assets by several institutions, which makes their losses move together.
11Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

12Questions

Questions and answers.

Is competitor data shared?
No. Any data from firms is aggregated before use, under the safeguards in GRA's written competition policy, which counsel reviews before membership opens. See competition and antitrust.
Can contagion through payment systems be modelled?
Partly. Network and simulation models can explore it, with results labelled as scenarios. See scenarios.
Does this analysis identify weak institutions?
No. It describes channels at system level and assesses no individual institution.
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Payments and Market Infrastructure

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