A-P05 · PROCESS · scenariosGRA dossier · service level R0
GRAPayments and Market InfrastructureIn development
Sector scenarios

Published scenarios

Sector-level scenarios for Payments and Market Infrastructure are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Publisher
The Global Risks Alliance
Field
Financial stability, Cyber and digital resilience, Digital public infrastructure
Canvas · scoping to reviewDesign, not a record
Published scenarios: payment from instruction to finalityA payment instruction is validated and screened, queued and settled in central bank money when liquidity allows; settlement is final and reconciled; a contingency route takes over if the primary system fails. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Payments and Market Infrastructure sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the financial stability field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures (PFMI). They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.

02Spatial finance

Settlement dependencies, and what fails with a node.

How a failure at one financial centre can spread through settlement links. Design links, not real dependencies.

Sixteen financial centres, and how a failure at one spreads through settlement links.Design links, not the real dependencies of any infrastructure.
03Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

04Scenario set

Extreme but plausible scenarios for infrastructure.

ScenarioWhat it tests
Default of the two largest participantsLiquidity and default resources under the cover-2 standard for systemically important CCPs
Destructive cyber attack corrupting dataData integrity and recovery to a known good state
Regional power and telecom failureSite diversity and recovery time
Critical provider outageDependence on a single messaging or cloud provider
05Spatial finance

What fails with a node.

Scenarios remove a node from a design network of financial centres and settlement links and trace unsettled obligations. Network methods at GCRI network science; telecom evidence at GCRI telecommunications and cables.

06Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
ScenarioA plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction.
Severe but plausible scenarioA disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur.
Reverse stress testStarting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it.
Investment adviceA personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions.
07Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

08Questions

Questions and answers.

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Payments and Market Infrastructure

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