Climate-conditioned hazard catalogues
Stochastic event sets for a peril are adjusted to reflect current or projected climate, using reanalysis trends and climate model ensembles, and the change in modelled loss is reported as a scenario.
GRA · Insurance Nexus
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Climate science for insurance hazard
Climate and atmospheric science explains how the hazards that drive insured loss are changing: storms, floods, heat, drought, wildfire and sea level. On this platform it supplies the hazard evidence and scenarios on which catastrophe models, stress tests and insurability studies are conditioned, with their uncertainty.
01Qeyd
Climate science for insurance hazard on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- RêbazZanista avhewa û atmosferê
- ParêzvanAvhewa û metirsî
- Applied inInsurance Nexus
- Dane5 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Serlêdan
What climate and atmospheric science does here.
Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. It provides the basis for understanding changes in hazard frequency and intensity that propagate through economic and social pergalan. In insurance and catastrophe, climate and hazards and health and biosecurity, climate projections frame long-horizon scenarios for infrastructure, insurance, food systems and public finance. They allow correlated hazards across regions and sectors to be examined together. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Supervisory climate stress scenarios
Physical risk scenarios for stress tests are built from NGFS scenarios and emission pathways, translated into hazard changes by region and peril, with every assumption documented.
Event footprints for claims and parametric triggers
Reanalysis, radar and satellite observations give rapid event footprints that support claims triage and the index measurements on which parametric payouts depend.
03Spatial finance
A parametric trigger, read on the map.
How a storm crossing a trigger zone would set a payment. Real geography; synthetic storm and design terms.
04Dane
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by climate and atmospheric science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Dane | Rol | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|
| ERA5 reanalysis | Historical hazard climatology | MODELKIRÎ |
| CMIP6 climate projections | Future hazard scenarios | MODELKIRÎ |
| NOAA and national station records | Observed extremes | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ |
| Copernicus Emergency Management Service maps | Event footprints | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ |
| Senaryoyên NGFS | Reference supervisory scenarios | MODELKIRÎ |
05Çavdêrî bike
Forecast verification.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Piştrastkirina pêşbîniyê
Insurance · Climate science for insurance · Run R-5095
Skill above referenceGRA · Insurance Nexus
Forecast with range
Method card
- Rêbaz
- Zanista avhewa û atmosferê
- Reference
- climatology
- Lead times
- 1 to 6 steps
- Nîşan
- MODELKIRÎ
Verification by lead time
held-out period
| T+2 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.13 | Skilful |
| T+4 | 0.42 | 0.11 | 0.27 | Skilful |
| T+6 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.19 | Skilful |
| T+8 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.24 | Skilful |
06Erêkirin
How results are checked.
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
| Kontrol bikin | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Historical reproduction | Conditioned hazard catalogues must reproduce observed hazard statistics in the calibration period before any projection |
| Ensemble spread | Results are reported across climate models and scenarios, never from a single model |
| Downscaling validation | Regional hazard from downscaled projections is compared with local observations before it enters a loss model |
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
07Loss model
Loss exceedance, average annual loss and probable maximum loss.
The loss a portfolio in the footprint can expect per year and at the 1 in 100 and 1 in 250 levels that insurers and lenders price, from the same three blocks every catastrophe model uses. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Gulf of Mexico coast; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Kontrol
- Typical annual hazard intensity (location)
- 1.00 intensity index
- Belavbûna nirxên tund (pîvan)
- 0.80 intensity index
- Tundiya ku nîvê nirxê tê de winda dibe
- 4.00 intensity index
- Belavbûna lawazî
- 0.55
- Para nirxê di nav şopa metirsî de
- 40%
- Standarda parastinê (heyama vegerê)
- 50 sal
Xwendin
- Windahiya salane ya navînî
- 0.51% of value
- Windahî di 1 ji 100 salan de
- 24.5% of value
- Windahî di 1 ji 250 salan de
- 28.4% of value
- Tundî di 1 ji 100 salan de
- 4.68 intensity index
Jimar, rêbaz û çavkanî
| Heyama vegerê (sal) | Intensity (intensity index) | Windahî (% ya nirxê) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| 2 | 1.27 | 0.00 |
| 4 | 1.91 | 0.00 |
| 7 | 2.47 | 0.00 |
| 13 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| 24 | 3.51 | 0.00 |
| 44 | 4.02 | 0.00 |
| 82 | 4.53 | 23.55 |
| 154 | 5.03 | 26.44 |
| 287 | 5.53 | 28.87 |
| 536 | 6.03 | 30.88 |
| 1,000 | 6.53 | 32.53 |
Rêbaz
- Metirsî: nirxên dawîn ên Gumbel Gumbel (1958), Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press
- Nazikiya lognormal (lawazî) FEMA (2003), HAZUS-MH Technical Manual
- Qada îhtîmala derbasbûnê û windahiya salane ya navînî Grossi and Kunreuther (2005), Catastrophe Modeling, Springer
- Bandora bendavê Di Baldassarre and others (2013), Socio-hydrology, HESS 17
- Pankeya nediyarîyê (Monte Carlo ya parametreyan) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- Hesasiyeta yek-yek (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Dane
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Çem Natural Earth
- Dirêjahiyên bajarî Natural Earth
- Bajar Natural Earth
- Erdhejên M4.5+, hefteya borî (USGS) U.S. Geological Survey · register usgs.earthquake.summary-feeds
- Rêjeya baranê, nîv saeta dawîn (IMERG) NASA GPM IMERG Early · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
- Pêşbînî: herikîna çemê, 30 roj bi navber (GloFAS bi riya Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus GloFAS · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Berfirehiya avakirî û niştecihbûnê, 2010 (HBASE, Landsat) CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE · register sedac.context-urban-layers
Li seranserê şeş stûnan, bi pêşengiya Nexus Consortium
- Ceribandin Labs
- Hatiye avakirin di Insurance Nexus in Foundry
- Tê ceribandin li Insurance Nexus in Universe
- Hatiye kodkirin di Darayî, sîgorta û aborî di Standards de
- Hatiye weşandin di Insurance Nexus in Reports
- Tê de tê dayîn Fakulteya Darayî û Aborî di Academy de
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Simulatorê cêwî û kaskade
Trace a shock in climate science for insurance hazard to the balance sheet.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Sîgorta û ji nû ve sîgorta: the shocks it names, the pergalan and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Metirsî
- Tropical cyclone
- Erdhej
- Ice-jam flood
- Agirê daristanan
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Qutbûna berfireh a elektrîkê (li aliyê jêr çê dibe)
- Koçberiya girseyî (li aliyê jêr çê dibe)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Rockfall (set off downstream)
- Tsunami (set off downstream)
Pergal û girêdan
- Sîgorta û ji nû ve sîgorta
- Bankevanî Girêdan
- Saziyên darayiya pêşketinê Girêdan
- Mirovî û civaka sivîl Girêdan
- Çandinî û bikaranîna erdê Girêdan
Kontrol
NS-0Destûr û prensîbNS-3UNIyên tomara xetereyê (rêzimanî, nexşeya veguhastina ji pergala kevin, desthilata veqetandinê)NS-9UNI yên çarçoveyî (belavkirin, mînak, mînakên bernameyê)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Piştrastkirin û çavdêrî (delîl, erêkirin, çavdêriya lihevhatina zero-trust)NS-14Lihevhatin û nexşeya li standardên derveyîNRS-F3Sîgorta, xetera felaketan û valahiyên parastinêNRS-H113Malbata metirsiyê: Nazikiya pergala darayî (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-U17Universe platform profile: Insurance NexusNRS-H71Malbata metirsiyê: Felaketên kozmîk û yên dema kûr (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H65Malbata metirsiyê: Binpêkirinên sînorên gerstêrkê (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-F8Veguhastina xeterê ya parametrîk û li ser bingeha îndeksê
Çavdêrî
- OECD Data Explorer (incl. Creditor Reporting System, insurance and pension statistics) (listed for reference)
- Insurance statistics (listed for reference)
- USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product
- (a) Number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and (b) number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults
Erdnîgariya mînakê
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- Rêjeya barînê, nîv saeta dawî (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Ronahiyên şevê îşev, qutbûn (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Ava rûyê erdê di nav ewr re, 30 m (radara OPERA DSWx-S1), NASA GIBS
- Carbon monoxide, smoke transport (AIRS), NASA GIBS
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Avhewa û metirsî stewards climate and atmospheric science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Exposure, loss and capital
What climate science for insurance hazard means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Exposure and loss at return periods
How losses from climate science for insurance hazard grow with severity, gross and net of reinsurance, against capital.
| Return period | Annual probability | Gross loss | Net loss | Net, capital = 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in 10 | 0.10 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 1 in 50 | 0.02 | 33 | 21 | 21 |
| 1 in 100 | 0.01 | 46 | 27 | 27 |
| 1 in 250 | 0.004 | 68 | 39 | 39 |
| Windahiya salane ya navînî | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
12Girêdayî
Ev rûpel li ser Konsorsiyûmê te ber bi kû ve dibe.
13Pirs
Pirs û bersiv.
What are the limits of climate and atmospheric science in this field?
Projections depend on emission pathways and on parameterised processes such as clouds and convection. Regional detail and changes in rare extremes carry wide uncertainty.
How are results checked?
Models are evaluated against observed climatology, historical trends and paleoclimate records. Multi-model comparison and process-based diagnostics expose structural differences.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
Çavdêrxaneya canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkTevkarî bike
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks AllianceInsurance NexusAmadebûna fînans û sîgortayêXetere û berxwedana sektorî ya cîhanî
- E-nameGateway GW-GRAJi vê rûpelê bişîninDelîl, rastkirin, doz, rêbaz, nirxandin, wergerandin an têketina profîlê. Bi nîşana vê rûpelê digihîje, ji ber vê yekê edîtorê xwediyê wê wê bistîne.
- ZenodoDepoya vekirîWê razînin û ji civakê re bişîninTomara xwe li Zenodo bi ORCID iD ya xwe biweşînin, paşê wê li wir ji civaka Reports re bişînin. Kurator wê vedikolin; DOI ya we dimîne.
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Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Insurance Nexus
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Hiqûqî
Belgeyên hiqûqî.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.