The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
The methods Development Finance Nexus relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
GRA · Established · service level R0
The Development Finance Nexus methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them economics and development economics, causal inference and impact evaluation, and geospatial information systems, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
For analysis and uncertainty, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on night lights and population density with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on Southern Africa; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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For analysis and uncertainty, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on night lights and population density with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on Southern Africa; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Method | Question it answers | Caution |
|---|---|---|
| Cost-benefit analysis with climate scenarios | Does resilience investment pay under plausible futures? | Discount rate and scenario choice dominate |
| Robust decision making | Which option performs acceptably across many futures? | Requires a broad scenario ensemble |
| Impact evaluation | Did the project change outcomes? | Counterfactuals are hard for infrastructure |
| Spatial targeting | Where does investment reach exposed and poor populations? | Gridded poverty estimates carry model error |
Decision methods under deep uncertainty are described at GCRI optimization under uncertainty and GCRI decision analysis. Development Finance Nexus applies them to lending questions.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Independent testing that a model performs as intended and is fit for a stated use. |
| Economics and development economics | Economics and development economics study how societies produce, distribute and consume resources and how living standards change. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.