GRA · Development Finance Nexus
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Analysis and uncertainty
Development Finance Nexus compares the methods used to justify and evaluate development investment: cost-benefit analysis with shadow prices, robust decision-making, impact evaluation with counterfactuals and geospatial targeting. This page sets out what each can show, what it assumes, and how the choice of discount rate or counterfactual can decide the answer.
Analysis and uncertainty on the record.
- 02STEM methods5 canonical methods applied
- 03Topics10 subject pages
- 04Counterparts9 platforms in shared fields
- 05PublisherThe Global Risks Alliance
The methods in use.
- 01Economics and development economicsEconomic appraisal of a project · Debt sustainability context · Tariff and subsidy incidenceApplied here
- 02Causal inference and impact evaluationEvaluating a credit line or guarantee · Infrastructure impact on householdsApplied here
- 03Geospatial information systemsSafeguard screening of a project footprint · Physical climate exposure of assetsApplied here
- 04Decision analysis under uncertaintyRobust choice of design standard · Multi-criteria pipeline screeningApplied here
- 05Agricultural, soil and food scienceIrrigation scheme appraisal · Index insurance and credit designApplied here
Evaluation and risk methods in development finance.
| Method | Question it answers | Caution |
|---|---|---|
| Cost-benefit analysis with climate scenarios | Does resilience investment pay under plausible futures? | Discount rate and scenario choice dominate |
| Robust decision making | Which option performs acceptably across many futures? | Requires a broad scenario ensemble |
| Impact evaluation | Did the project change outcomes? | Counterfactuals are hard for infrastructure |
| Spatial targeting | Where does investment reach exposed and poor populations? | Gridded poverty estimates carry model error |
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Analysis and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
10 steps·4 stages
Process
Analysis and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramRecordThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportRecordThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
Methods described once, applied here.
Decision methods under deep uncertainty are described at GCRI optimisation under uncertainty and the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) decision analysis. Development Finance Nexus applies them to lending questions.
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Are the methods open?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GRASend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGlobal Risks AllianceSee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
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