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GRADevelopment Finance NexusEstablished
Research and evidence

Professional research

The research behind Development Finance Nexus: the questions it asks, the methods it uses and how evidence is reviewed before it is published.

Open Analysis and uncertainty Back to Development Finance Nexus
Publisher
The Global Risks Alliance
Field
Development finance, Critical infrastructure, Economic development
Status
Established
Service level
R0: information and enquiries

Evidence register

Development finance · Professional research

Register currentGRA · Development Finance Nexus

Indicators

unit · cadence · label

Pipeline valuelocal bnquarterlyOFFICIALSP-8073
Projects screened for climate risk of pipelinequarterlyOFFICIALSP-2849
Safeguard incidentsincidentsquarterlyREPORTEDSP-1535
Disbursement ratio of commitmentsannualREPORTEDSP-6832
Adaptation share of commitmentsannualREPORTEDSP-6748

Source passport

Source
Project documents
Licence
open · attribution
Steward
Development finance institution
Coverage
75 pct of places
Known limits
sparse in uplands

Coverage by place

Development Finance Nexus · Evidence registerEvidence register, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.

01In brief

The short answer.

Development Finance Nexus research is the evidence work behind the platform: questions such as country programme readiness and public investment and projects, answered with economics and development economics as well as causal inference and impact evaluation and reviewed before publication. Every result carries an evidence label, from observed to modelled or expert judgement, and missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

02Canvas

Draft to published version.

Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
Professional research: systematic evidence synthesisA question is framed with its owner and a protocol registered; records are searched, screened and checked for eligibility by two reviewers; data are extracted, synthesised and graded for certainty before a brief is written. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.

03Geography

People and exposure in Southern Africa.

For professional research, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on Southern Africa; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

People and exposure, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

For professional research, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on Southern Africa; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · GDACS · CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASESources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live: GDACS (EC JRC / UN OCHA) Events are indicative, not official warnings.
  • Context: CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, and NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): Global Human Built-up And Settlement Extent (HBASE) 2010; Seto, Guneralp and Hutyra 2012, Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030; Global Urban Heat Island (UHI) Data Set, 2013.
  • Optional layers (35 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026

04Questions

What the research asks.

  1. 01

    Country programme readiness

    Evidence for national and regional development priorities.

  2. 02

    Public investment and projects

    Infrastructure preparation and risks.

  3. 03

    Climate adaptation finance

    Development challenges and adaptation.

  4. 04

    Food, water and energy investment

    Essential service resilience.

  5. 05

    Social risk and inclusion

    Equity and human development.

  6. 06

    Financing gaps and evidence

    Evidence before institutional decisions.

05Research questions

The questions Development Finance Nexus research works on.

QuestionEvidence used
Does resilience investment pay under plausible futures?project footprints, hazard over design life and poverty grids
Where do hazard and poverty coincide?projects against hazard and poverty
How do debt clauses change outcomes?design-life cost models

Development Finance Nexus research concerns project siting, safeguards and the financing layers that protect development investment. It is written for development bank project and risk officers and environmental and social specialists, carries an evidence label on every value and never performs any institution's own analysis of advice on choosing a lender.

06Evidence

Every result keeps its label.

Results are labelled as observed, officially reported, estimated, modelled, forecast, scenario or expert judgement. Missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

Methods

Methods and uncertainty

How results are produced and where they stop

Sources

Source and data register

Where data comes from and on what terms

Publications

Reviewed outputs

Citable work with its editorial status

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Research integrityConduct of research in line with principles of reliability, honesty, respect and accountability, as the European Code of Conduct for Research Integrity sets them out.
Evidence labelA tag naming the kind of evidence, such as observed or modelled, that should survive every summary.
ReproducibilityObtaining consistent results using the same data and analysis code as the original study.
Optimism biasThe tendency to underestimate costs and durations and overestimate benefits at appraisal.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Pages

Pages in Professional research.

Page

Analysis and uncertainty

Page

Financial source and licence register

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I propose a research question?
Yes. Write to contact@globalriskalliance.com with the question, the context and who would use the answer. A proposal receives a reference; it does not commit the platform to the work.
Related

Around Development Finance Nexus.

Development Finance Nexus

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