Storm surge modelling
Hydrodynamic models estimate surge heights from cyclone tracks, with tide and wave set-up, for coastal flood losses.
GRA · Reinsurance and Catastrophe
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Ocean and coastal science for reinsurance and catastrophe
Ocean science explains bilindbûna pêlên bahozê, sea level rise, ocean warming and tsunamiyê. In catastrophe reinsurance it supplies coastal flood hazard and the ocean conditions that influence how intense tropical cyclones become.
01Naverok
Ocean and coastal science for reinsurance and catastrophe in five parts.
02Serlêdan
What ocean and coastal science does here.
Ocean science studies the physics, chemistry, biology and geology of the oceans and coasts. It informs sea-level rise, bilindbûna pêlên bahozê, marine heatwaves, acidification and fisheries change, all of which affect coastal populations and trade. In insurance and catastrophe, climate and hazards and disaster and crisis, ocean projections guide coastal defence, port planning and fisheries management. They link marine hazards to food security, shipping routes and coastal economies. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Sea level rise scenarios
Projected sea level rise is added to surge to estimate how coastal flood return periods change.
Ocean heat and cyclone intensity
Sea surface temperature and ocean heat content are examined as conditions for rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.
03Spatial finance
A parametric trigger, read on the map.
How a storm crossing a trigger zone would set a payment. Real geography; synthetic storm and design terms.
04Dane
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by ocean and coastal science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Dane | Rol | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|
| Tide gauge records | Observed sea level and surge | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ |
| IPCC sea level projections | Senaryo | MODELKIRÎ |
| Sea surface temperature analyses | Ocean state | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ |
05Çavdêrî bike
Forecast verification.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Piştrastkirina pêşbîniyê
Reinsurance and catastrophe · Ocean and coastal science · Run R-8822
Skill above referenceGRA · Reinsurance and Catastrophe
Forecast with range
Method card
- Rêbaz
- Zanista okyanûs û peravan
- Reference
- climatology
- Lead times
- 1 to 10 steps
- Nîşan
- MODELKIRÎ
Verification by lead time
held-out period
| T+2 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.33 | Marginal |
| T+4 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.36 | Marginal |
| T+6 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 0.27 | Skilful |
| T+8 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.36 | Skilful |
06Erêkirin
How results are checked.
Models are checked against tide gauge records, altimetry and in situ profiles. Hindcasts of past storms and heatwaves test predictive skill.
| Kontrol bikin | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Surge hindcasts | Models reproduce observed surges |
| Scenario range | Several sea level scenarios are shown |
| Coastal defence data | Defence heights are documented |
Coastal processes at fine scale and ice sheet contributions to sea level remain uncertain. Observations of the deep ocean and polar seas are sparse.
07Loss model
Loss exceedance, average annual loss and probable maximum loss.
The loss a portfolio in the footprint can expect per year and at the 1 in 100 and 1 in 250 levels that insurers and lenders price, from the same three blocks every catastrophe model uses. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Gulf of Mexico coast; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Kontrol
- Typical annual hazard intensity (location)
- 1.00 intensity index
- Belavbûna nirxên tund (pîvan)
- 0.80 intensity index
- Tundiya ku nîvê nirxê tê de winda dibe
- 4.00 intensity index
- Belavbûna lawazî
- 0.55
- Para nirxê di nav şopa metirsî de
- 40%
- Standarda parastinê (heyama vegerê)
- 50 sal
Xwendin
- Windahiya salane ya navînî
- 0.51% of value
- Windahî di 1 ji 100 salan de
- 24.5% of value
- Windahî di 1 ji 250 salan de
- 28.4% of value
- Tundî di 1 ji 100 salan de
- 4.68 intensity index
Jimar, rêbaz û çavkanî
| Heyama vegerê (sal) | Intensity (intensity index) | Windahî (% ya nirxê) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| 2 | 1.27 | 0.00 |
| 4 | 1.91 | 0.00 |
| 7 | 2.47 | 0.00 |
| 13 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| 24 | 3.51 | 0.00 |
| 44 | 4.02 | 0.00 |
| 82 | 4.53 | 23.55 |
| 154 | 5.03 | 26.44 |
| 287 | 5.53 | 28.87 |
| 536 | 6.03 | 30.88 |
| 1,000 | 6.53 | 32.53 |
Rêbaz
- Metirsî: nirxên dawîn ên Gumbel Gumbel (1958), Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press
- Nazikiya lognormal (lawazî) FEMA (2003), HAZUS-MH Technical Manual
- Qada îhtîmala derbasbûnê û windahiya salane ya navînî Grossi and Kunreuther (2005), Catastrophe Modeling, Springer
- Bandora bendavê Di Baldassarre and others (2013), Socio-hydrology, HESS 17
- Pankeya nediyarîyê (Monte Carlo ya parametreyan) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- Hesasiyeta yek-yek (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Dane
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Çem Natural Earth
- Dirêjahiyên bajarî Natural Earth
- Bajar Natural Earth
- Erdhejên M4.5+, hefteya borî (USGS) U.S. Geological Survey · register usgs.earthquake.summary-feeds
- Rêjeya baranê, nîv saeta dawîn (IMERG) NASA GPM IMERG Early · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
- Pêşbînî: herikîna çemê, 30 roj bi navber (GloFAS bi riya Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus GloFAS · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Berfirehiya avakirî û niştecihbûnê, 2010 (HBASE, Landsat) CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE · register sedac.context-urban-layers
Li seranserê şeş stûnan, bi pêşengiya Nexus Consortium
- Ceribandin Labs
- Hatiye avakirin di Reinsurance and Catastrophe in Foundry
- Tê ceribandin li Reinsurance and Catastrophe in Universe
- Hatiye kodkirin di Darayî, sîgorta û aborî di Standards de
- Hatiye weşandin di Reinsurance and Catastrophe in Reports
- Tê de tê dayîn Fakulteya Darayî û Aborî di Academy de
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Simulatorê cêwî û kaskade
Trace a shock to the balance sheet.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Sîgorta û ji nû ve sîgorta: the shocks it names, the pergalan and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Metirsî
- Tropical cyclone
- Erdhej
- Ice-jam flood
- Agirê daristanan
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Qutbûna berfireh a elektrîkê (li aliyê jêr çê dibe)
- Koçberiya girseyî (li aliyê jêr çê dibe)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Rockfall (set off downstream)
- Tsunami (set off downstream)
Pergal û girêdan
- Sîgorta û ji nû ve sîgorta
- Bankevanî Girêdan
- Saziyên darayiya pêşketinê Girêdan
- Mirovî û civaka sivîl Girêdan
- Çandinî û bikaranîna erdê Girêdan
Kontrol
NS-0Destûr û prensîbNS-3UNIyên tomara xetereyê (rêzimanî, nexşeya veguhastina ji pergala kevin, desthilata veqetandinê)NS-9UNI yên çarçoveyî (belavkirin, mînak, mînakên bernameyê)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Piştrastkirin û çavdêrî (delîl, erêkirin, çavdêriya lihevhatina zero-trust)NS-14Lihevhatin û nexşeya li standardên derveyîNRS-F3Sîgorta, xetera felaketan û valahiyên parastinêNRS-H113Malbata metirsiyê: Nazikiya pergala darayî (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-U17Universe platform profile: Insurance NexusNRS-H71Malbata metirsiyê: Felaketên kozmîk û yên dema kûr (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H65Malbata metirsiyê: Binpêkirinên sînorên gerstêrkê (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-F8Veguhastina xeterê ya parametrîk û li ser bingeha îndeksê
Çavdêrî
- OECD Data Explorer (incl. Creditor Reporting System, insurance and pension statistics) (listed for reference)
- Insurance statistics (listed for reference)
- USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product
- (a) Number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and (b) number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults
Erdnîgariya mînakê
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- Rêjeya barînê, nîv saeta dawî (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Ronahiyên şevê îşev, qutbûn (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Ava rûyê erdê di nav ewr re, 30 m (radara OPERA DSWx-S1), NASA GIBS
- Carbon monoxide, smoke transport (AIRS), NASA GIBS
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Okyanûs û peravên stewards ocean and coastal science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Xetere û bersiv
Xetereya girêdayî, bersiva sepandî.
Sektorên ku di bilindbûna pêlên bahozê ya peravê de rûbirûbûnê hildigirin û windahiyek di yekê de çawa derbasî yên din dibe, li seranserê portfolyo û darayiya giştî.
Çarçoveyekê hilbijêrin
AXetera girêdayî di şeş sektoran de10 / 15 têkilî
Sektor · Bilindbûna ava behrê ya bahozê li peravanStres
applied to
BBersiva sepandî li şeş stûnan12 / 18 radestkirin
Stûn · Bilindbûna ava behrê ya bahozê li peravanKPI
Di vê çarçoveyê deGirêdayîbûn an radestkirin, giran bi hêztir eLi derveyî vê çarçoveyê
Sala bernameyêHemû qonax
Çarçove
Bilindbûna ava behrê ya bahozê li peravan
Mangrove û kumên qûmê mewcê dimijin; li cihê ku wan tune ne, bender, binestasyon û lêgirtinên avê wê digirin.
W · E · I · F · H · B
Xetere
- Sektor
- 5 ji 6
- Têkilî
- 10 ji 15
- Girêdan
- 0.64 para ji tevahiyê
Li goşeyek, xetek an rêzek bigerin da ku wê li ser her du aliyan bişopînin.
Rê
Li ser bilindbûna ava behrê ya bahozê li peravan hatiye sepandin
L · F · U · S · R · A
Bersiv
- Stûn
- 5 ji 6
- Radestkirin
- 12 ji 18
- Çerx
- 8 girtî
Nirxa hêvîkirî
- Ya li ber xetereyê
- $390Bsalê herî kêm, di lêçûnên têkçûna binesazê de ji bo malbat û karsaziyên welatên bi dahata kêm û navînBanka Cîhanê, Lifelines, 2019
- Vegera li ser berxwedanê
- 4 : 1sûd li hember lêçûnêBanka Cîhanê, Lifelines, 2019
- Windahiya ku hatiye pêşîgirtin
- $80Bwindahiyên lehiyê yên ku salê têne dûrxistinKomîsyona Cîhanî ya Lihevhatinê, Adapt Now, 2019
Li stûnek, xetek an rêzek bigerin da ku bixwînin ka çawa tê sepandin.
A: kaskadeyek hînkirinê (şok 0.6, qezenc 0.35, çar dor) li ser nirxên hînkirinê yên ji bo herêmeke bajarî ya tîpîk, ne pîvandin. B: sepanên nimûneyî û KPI ya ku her stûn bersiva wê dide; nirx pîvanên weşandî ne, bi çavkanî, ne pêşbînî. Bûyerên vekirî: NASA EONET, zindî.
12Girêdayî
Ev rûpel li ser Konsorsiyûmê te ber bi kû ve dibe.
13Exposure, loss and capital
What it means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Exposure and loss at return periods
How losses from ocean and coastal science for reinsurance and catastrophe grow with severity, gross and net of reinsurance, against capital.
| Return period | Annual probability | Gross loss | Net loss | Net, capital = 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in 10 | 0.10 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 1 in 50 | 0.02 | 33 | 21 | 21 |
| 1 in 100 | 0.01 | 46 | 27 | 27 |
| 1 in 250 | 0.004 | 68 | 39 | 39 |
| Windahiya salane ya navînî | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
14Pirs
Pirs û bersiv.
What are the limits of ocean and coastal science in this field?
Coastal processes at fine scale and ice sheet contributions to sea level remain uncertain. Observations of the deep ocean and polar seas are sparse.
How are results checked?
Models are checked against tide gauge records, altimetry and in situ profiles. Hindcasts of past storms and heatwaves test predictive skill.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
Çavdêrxaneya canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkTevkarî bike
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Global Risks AllianceSîgortaya duyemîn û katastrofAmadebûna fînans û sîgortayêRêbaz û teknîkî
- E-nameGateway GW-GRAJi vê rûpelê bişîninDelîl, rastkirin, doz, rêbaz, nirxandin, wergerandin an têketina profîlê. Bi nîşana vê rûpelê digihîje, ji ber vê yekê edîtorê xwediyê wê wê bistîne.
- ZenodoDepoya vekirîWê razînin û ji civakê re bişîninTomara xwe li Zenodo bi ORCID iD ya xwe biweşînin, paşê wê li wir ji civaka Reports re bişînin. Kurator wê vedikolin; DOI ya we dimîne.
- rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkGlobal Risks AllianceHemû rêyên beşdariyê bibîneCureyên beşdariyê, her yek çawa tê nirxandin, tu çi navlêkirinê distînî, lîsans û tiştê ku qet nayê qebûlkirin.
Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Sîgortaya duyemîn û katastrof
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Hiqûqî
Belgeyên hiqûqî.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.