The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for Financial Stability are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
Financial Stability sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the financial stability field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as Basel III framework. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
How a failure at one financial centre can spread through settlement links. Design links, not real dependencies.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
A system-wide scenario applies one shock to several sectors and lets their responses interact: margin calls on leveraged funds, redemptions from open-ended funds, bank deleveraging, insurer asset sales. The Bank of England's system-wide exploratory scenario is a public example of the design. Financial Stability adds physical and operational shocks to the market narrative, for example a hurricane that disrupts a financial centre while repricing insured and mortgage exposure.
| Amplifier | Where it appears |
|---|---|
| Procyclical margin | Central clearing and bilateral derivatives |
| Liquidity mismatch | Open-ended funds offering daily redemption |
| Leverage | Hedge funds, liability-driven investment, private credit |
| Fire sales | Common holdings across funds and insurers |
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.