Climate and Nature Financial Risk
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
The methods Climate and Nature Financial Risk relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
Analysis and uncertainty · Review wave 2
0 low to 100 high
Higher is more certain. Values are placeholders.
Climate and Nature Financial Risk · Evidence gradingEvidence grading, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The Climate and Nature Financial Risk methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them climate and atmospheric science, ecology and biodiversity science, and scenario design and stress testing, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
Where a portfolio's assets sit, and how much of its value is most exposed. Hypothetical assets, not an assessment.
| Approach | How | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| Top-down macro | Scenario GDP and sector variables mapped to portfolio risk parameters | Hides location and asset detail |
| Bottom-up asset-level | Hazard at each asset through damage functions | Coverage and vulnerability data |
| Hybrid | Asset-level physical, sector-level transition | Consistency between the two |
Asset-level work depends on hazard resolution and on joining correctly: a coarse flood grid can misclassify assets near river channels. Methods at GCRI spatial statistics; measurement gaps at model and measurement gaps.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Independent testing that a model performs as intended and is fit for a stated use. |
| Climate and atmospheric science | Climate science studies the physical processes that govern the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere and land surface over seasons to centuries. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.