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GRA · Reinsurance and Catastrophe

Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition

Hydrology and water science for reinsurance and catastrophe

Hydrology explains how rainfall becomes river and surface water flooding. In catastrophe reinsurance it supplies the flood hazard maps, event footprints and defence assumptions behind flood models and post-event claims analysis.

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01Qeyd

Hydrology and water science for reinsurance and catastrophe on the record.

Method recordSTEM method
  1. RêbazHîdrolojî û zanista avê
  2. ParêzvanWater Nexus
  3. Applied inSîgortaya duyemîn û katastrof
  6. Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Serlêdan

What hydrology and water science does here.

Hydrology studies the movement, distribution and quality of water across the land surface, subsurface and atmosphere. It underpins the assessment of floods, droughts and water supply, which affect food, energy, health and infrastructure together. In insurance and catastrophe, climate and hazards and disaster and crisis, hydrological estimates set design standards for dams, levees and drainage and inform water allocation between competing users. They link climate hazards to downstream effects on power generation, crops and public health. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.

River flood event sets

Spatially coherent rainfall and flow events are simulated across basins so that a single event can affect many locations at once.

Flood defence assumptions

Defence standards and failure probabilities are represented explicitly, since small changes in them change modelled flood loss sharply.

Pluvial flood mapping

Surface water flooding from intense rain is mapped at fine resolution where drainage data allow.

03Spatial finance

A drought index against its attachment point.

How a dry season is read against the point where drought cover starts to pay. Synthetic season and design terms.

A rainfall season across the Sahel, read against the points where drought cover would start and stop paying.Synthetic season and design terms; no cover is implied.
04Dane

What the method consumes.

Datasets and records used by hydrology and water science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.

DaneRolNîşan
River gauge recordsFlow statisticsÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ
Flood extent observationsCalibrationÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ
Digital elevation modelsTerrainÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ
Defence databasesParastinREPORTED
05Loss model

Loss exceedance, average annual loss and probable maximum loss.

The loss a portfolio in the footprint can expect per year and at the 1 in 100 and 1 in 250 levels that insurers and lenders price, from the same three blocks every catastrophe model uses. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Gulf of Mexico coast; the model itself is not tied to a place.

Kontrol

Typical annual flood depth (location)
0.40 m water depth
Belavbûna nirxên tund (pîvan)
0.45 m water depth
Tundiya ku nîvê nirxê tê de winda dibe
1.60 m water depth
Belavbûna lawazî
0.55
Para nirxê di nav şopa metirsî de
40%
Standarda parastinê (heyama vegerê)
50 sal

Xwendin

Windahiya salane ya navînî
0.64% of value
Windahî di 1 ji 100 salan de
31.4% of value
Windahî di 1 ji 250 salan de
34.3% of value
Tundî di 1 ji 100 salan de
2.47 m water depth
Jimar, rêbaz û çavkanî
Heyama vegerê (sal)Intensity (m water depth)Windahî (% ya nirxê)
1−0.110.00
20.550.00
40.910.00
71.230.00
131.530.00
241.810.00
442.100.00
822.3830.62
1542.6632.93
2872.9534.66
5363.2335.96
1,0003.5136.93

Rêbaz

  1. Metirsî: nirxên dawîn ên Gumbel Gumbel (1958), Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press
  2. Nazikiya lognormal (lawazî) FEMA (2003), HAZUS-MH Technical Manual
  3. Qada îhtîmala derbasbûnê û windahiya salane ya navînî Grossi and Kunreuther (2005), Catastrophe Modeling, Springer
  4. Bandora bendavê Di Baldassarre and others (2013), Socio-hydrology, HESS 17
  5. Pankeya nediyarîyê (Monte Carlo ya parametreyan) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  6. Hesasiyeta yek-yek (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

Dane

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • Çem Natural Earth
  • Dirêjahiyên bajarî Natural Earth
  • Bajar Natural Earth
  • Erdhejên M4.5+, hefteya borî (USGS) U.S. Geological Survey · register usgs.earthquake.summary-feeds
  • Rêjeya baranê, nîv saeta dawîn (IMERG) NASA GPM IMERG Early · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
  • Pêşbînî: herikîna çemê, 30 roj bi navber (GloFAS bi riya Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus GloFAS · register open-meteo.public-pages
  • Berfirehiya avakirî û niştecihbûnê, 2010 (HBASE, Landsat) CIESIN/Columbia, NASA SEDAC HBASE · register sedac.context-urban-layers
Loss exceedance, average annual loss and probable maximum loss. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: Gumbel extreme-value hazard (Gumbel (1958), Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press); Lognormal fragility (vulnerability) (FEMA (2003), HAZUS-MH Technical Manual); Exceedance-probability curve and average annual loss (Grossi and Kunreuther (2005), Catastrophe Modeling, Springer).

Li seranserê şeş stûnan, bi pêşengiya Nexus Consortium

06Erêkirin

How results are checked.

Models are calibrated on one period of observed flows and tested on an independent period or neighbouring catchment. Skill scores and comparison with surveyed flood extents are used to judge performance.

Kontrol bikinHow it is done
Event footprint realismSimulated events are compared with observed multi-basin floods
Defence sensitivityResults are shown with and without defence assumptions
Resolution adequacyMap resolution is matched to the exposure data used

Assumptions of stationarity weaken as climate and land use change. Ungauged basins, karst aquifers and rapid urbanisation are poorly represented by parameters fitted elsewhere.

07Simulatorê cêwî û kaskade

Trace a shock to the balance sheet.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Sîgorta û ji nû ve sîgorta: the shocks it names, the pergalan and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Pick an initiating shock and step through the cascade to see which exposures it reaches and where losses could concentrate. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every weight is a stated assumption. An exercise, not a forecast, a valuation, a rating or investment advice. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Metirsî

  • Tropical cyclone
  • Erdhej
  • Ice-jam flood
  • Agirê daristanan
  • Storm surge (set off downstream)
  • Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Flash flood (set off downstream)
  • Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
  • Qutbûna berfireh a elektrîkê (li aliyê jêr çê dibe)
  • Koçberiya girseyî (li aliyê jêr çê dibe)
  • Coastal flood (set off downstream)
  • Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
  • Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
  • Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
  • Slope slide (set off downstream)
  • Rockfall (set off downstream)
  • Tsunami (set off downstream)

Kontrol

  • NS-0 Destûr û prensîb
  • NS-3 UNIyên tomara xetereyê (rêzimanî, nexşeya veguhastina ji pergala kevin, desthilata veqetandinê)
  • NS-9 UNI yên çarçoveyî (belavkirin, mînak, mînakên bernameyê)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NS-11 Piştrastkirin û çavdêrî (delîl, erêkirin, çavdêriya lihevhatina zero-trust)
  • NS-14 Lihevhatin û nexşeya li standardên derveyî
  • NRS-F3 Sîgorta, xetera felaketan û valahiyên parastinê
  • NRS-H113 Malbata metirsiyê: Nazikiya pergala darayî (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)
  • NRS-U17 Universe platform profile: Insurance Nexus
  • NRS-H71 Malbata metirsiyê: Felaketên kozmîk û yên dema kûr (NHS-1 planet.deep-time)
  • NRS-H65 Malbata metirsiyê: Binpêkirinên sînorên gerstêrkê (NHS-1 planet.boundary)
  • NRS-F8 Veguhastina xeterê ya parametrîk û li ser bingeha îndeksê

Çavdêrî

  • OECD Data Explorer (incl. Creditor Reporting System, insurance and pension statistics) (listed for reference)
  • Insurance statistics (listed for reference)
  • USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP)
  • Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global gross domestic product
  • (a) Number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and (b) number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults

Erdnîgariya mînakê

  • Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
  • Rêjeya barînê, nîv saeta dawî (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Ronahiyên şevê îşev, qutbûn (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
  • Ava rûyê erdê di nav ewr re, 30 m (radara OPERA DSWx-S1), NASA GIBS
  • Carbon monoxide, smoke transport (AIRS), NASA GIBS
08Connections

Topics that rely on this method.

09Îmzeya sektorê

Where exposure in hydrology and water science for reinsurance and catastrophe travels.

The sectors that carry exposure in hydrology and water science for reinsurance and catastrophe and how a loss in one passes to the others, across portfolios and public finances.

Goşeyan hilbijêre · li xetan bigere6 / 15 têkilî

Îmze

Av û hevkarên wê

Av dide çandiniyê avdan (0.8), dide enerjiyê ava sarkirinê û hîdroelektrîkê (0.6) û dide cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran herikên jîngehî (0.6).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sektor
4 ji 6
Têkilî
6 ji 15
Girêdan
0.43 para ji tevahiyê

Têkiliyên herî xurt ên di lîstikê de

  • Xwarin → Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran · veguherandina erdê0.6
  • Av → Enerjî · ava sarkirinê û hîdroelektrîk0.6
  • Av → Xwarin · avdan0.8
  • Av → Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran · herikên jîngehî0.6
Nirxên fêrkirinê ji bo herêmeke bajarî ya tîpîk, ne pîvanên ji bo ti cihekî. Girêdan berhevoka hêza têkiliyên di lîstikê de ye, wekî para hemû pazdehan.
10Stewardship

Who maintains the method.

Water Nexus stewards hydrology and water science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Hydrology and water science

11Exposure, loss and capital

What it means for exposure, loss and capital.

The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.

Exposure and loss at return periods

How losses from hydrology and water science for reinsurance and catastrophe grow with severity, gross and net of reinsurance, against capital.

1 in 101 in 501 in 1001 in 250grossnet of reinsurance800
Return periodAnnual probabilityGross lossNet lossNet, capital = 100
1 in 100.10141010
1 in 500.02332121
1 in 1000.01462727
1 in 2500.004683939
Windahiya salane ya navînî3.12.22.2
Illustrative loss index for a example portfolio (capital = 100): the exceedance-probability form insurers and supervisors read. Not data on any institution, not a price or a rating.
NGFS climate scenarios · Network for Greening the Financial SystemIFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures · ISSBTCFD recommendations · Financial Stability Board TCFDPrinciples for the effective management of climate-related financial risks · Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
12Girêdayî

Ev rûpel li ser Konsorsiyûmê te ber bi kû ve dibe.

13Pirs

Pirs û bersiv.

What are the limits of hydrology and water science in this field?
Assumptions of stationarity weaken as climate and land use change. Ungauged basins, karst aquifers and rapid urbanisation are poorly represented by parameters fitted elsewhere.
How are results checked?
Models are calibrated on one period of observed flows and tested on an independent period or neighbouring catchment. Skill scores and comparison with surveyed flood extents are used to judge performance.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
Çavdêrxaneya canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.

rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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