Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

5 min read0 figures5 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Drought-to-flood year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Italy’s water risk runs at both extremes, drought on the Po and in the South, floods and landslides on dried soils, while two-fifths of network supply is lost.

42.4%

water lost in networks, 202212

≈94%

municipalities exposed11

2022record

low Po flows24

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Losses42.4% of water fed into networks lost12Reported
DroughtPo at its lowest summer flows in about seventy years in 202224Reported
FloodsEmilia-Romagna, May 2023: 17 deaths, about €8.5 billion14Reported
Exposure6.8 million residents in medium flood-hazard areas11Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • WAT → ENE hydropower
  • WAT → FIN uninsured flood losses

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • storage and allocation in drought
  • exposure of homes and lifelines

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-04 Health
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-08 Disaster

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Italy replaced most Russian gas within two years and met 41.2% of electricity demand from renewables in 2024; hydro output still swings with drought.

41.2%

renewables in demand, 20247

<5%

Russian share of gas imports, 20238

−3.6%

emissions, 20241

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Renewables41.2% of electricity demand in 20247Reported
GasRussian share cut from about 40% to under 5%8Reported
Hydrooutput falls in drought years124Inferred
Emissions363 Mt CO₂e in 20241Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydropower
  • ENE → HLT cooling
  • ENE → industry costs

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • hydro exposure in dry years
  • peak demand in heatwaves

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-04 Health
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-08 Disaster

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Italy is one of the EU’s largest agricultural producers. Drought, heat and Xylella stress the most valuable crops.

≈14%

of EU agricultural output22

2022drought

harvest losses23

ApuliaXylella

olive groves affected19

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Productionamong the EU’s largest producers22Reported
Droughtharvest losses in 202223Reported
PestsXylella fastidiosa in Apulian olive groves19Reported
Waterirrigation depends on Po and southern reservoirs24Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • BIO → FOO pests and pollination
  • CLI → FOO heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • drought losses by region
  • spread of Xylella

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-04 Health
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-08 Disaster

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is Italy’s deadliest climate hazard, and an ageing population raises exposure year by year.

18,010deaths

heat-related, 20224

12,743deaths

heat-related, 20235

2024record

warmest year21

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heat 202218,010 heat-related deaths4Reported
Heat 202312,743 heat-related deaths5Reported
Disastersdeaths and injuries in earthquakes and floods1415Reported
Surge capacitynot consolidated nationally,Expert input

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • GEO → HLT earthquakes
  • ENE → HLT cooling and care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat surge capacity
  • cooling in care homes

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-04 Health
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-08 Disaster

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Italy holds some of Europe’s richest biodiversity. Wildfire, drought, pests and glacier loss are reshaping its ecosystems.

≈160khectares

burned in 202120

≈20%

of land in Natura 200018

2022collapse

Marmolada glacier26

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Wildfireabout 160,000 ha burned in 202120Reported
Protectionabout a fifth of land in Natura 200018Reported
PestsXylella in olive groves19Reported
GlaciersMarmolada collapse, 11 deaths, July 202226Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and pests
  • CLI → BIO fire, drought and heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem condition
  • species trends in the Red Lists17

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-04 Health
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-08 Disaster

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
  2. 11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
  3. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
  4. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
  5. 7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
  6. 8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
  7. 1ISPRA (ed.), Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2024: National Inventory Document 2026. ISPRA, Rome, April 2026.back
  8. 22Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
  9. 23CREA (ed.), Annuario dell’agricoltura italiana 2022. CREA, Rome, 2023.back
  10. 19K. Schneider, W. van der Werf, M. Cendoya et al., “Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, pp. 9250–9259, 2020.back
  11. 4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
  12. 5E. Gallo, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health,” Nature Medicine, vol. 30, pp. 3101–3105, 2024.back
  13. 21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
  14. 15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
  15. 20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back
  16. 18ISPRA (ed.), Annuario dei dati ambientali 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
  17. 26A. Bondesan and R. G. Francese, “The climate-driven disaster of the Marmolada Glacier (Italy),” Geomorphology, vol. 431, 108687, 2023.back
  18. 17Comitato Italiano IUCN and MASE (eds.), Liste Rosse Italiane. Rome, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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