Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the Italy report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Read the executive summaryStart with chapter 1Cite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Status
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsITA

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Italy 2026

The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Findings12each with its status and source
Sources40numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicators16in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 30% below 1990, but transport keeps rising and the 2030 effort-sharing target is off track.

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. 2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record; the national adaptation plan was approved in December 2023.

    Is the climate already changing?Reported

  3. Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 12,743 in 2023, mostly among older people.

    Who is most exposed to heat?Reported

  4. About 94% of municipalities face landslide, flood or erosion hazard; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas.

    How exposed is the territory?Reported

  5. Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood; the State has acted as insurer of last resort.

    Who carries disaster losses?Reported

All key messages and the headline finding

02 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative

    Part I describes systems and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Drought-to-flood year

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Lenses and readings

    The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Heat-related deaths in Italy
  2. 1.1Where do Italy’s emissions come from? Share of national emissions by sector, 2024 (%)
  3. 1.2Couplings between the five systems
  4. 2.1Heat-related deaths in Italy
List of tables (42)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
  7. 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional reports
  10. 6.5Official statistics and agency data
  11. 6.6Insurance, geohazards and nature
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. A.1Methods
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Baseline indicator set
  37. B.3National source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, Italy by macro-region
  39. B.5Italy system card
  40. B.6Licences of each kind of material
  41. B.7This edition in every format
  42. C.1Release path for this version

03 · Global Risks Alliance reading

How Global Risks Alliance reads this edition.

Readiness implications only. Very low insurance take-up, a new business insurance mandate and an effort-sharing gap show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-011 · CLI-002

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

04 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Version
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Contributors

RoleContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the Italy system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MethodologyBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of national and international releases to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Review before release

PassScopeByState
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TScheduled
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TScheduled
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MScheduled
4Finance-readiness boundaryGRA · key FScheduled
5Country context and safeguardsNational pathway · key NScheduled

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

05 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

FormatWhat it isStateGet it
Complete edition, print or PDFA4 or Letter, chosen in the print dialog: cover, contents, every chapter and annex, endnotes and running heads Review copyOpen for print
Indicators, CSV16 indicators with unit, year, status and source On this pageDownload
Indicators, JSONThe same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence On this pageDownload
Findings, CSV12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references On this pageDownload
Citation, BibTeXFor LaTeX and reference managers On this pageDownload
Citation, RISFor Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley On this pageDownload
Signed PDF with DOIThe archival PDF/A with its DOI, signed with the web edition and the data bundle At releaseNot yet issued

The print and the files are produced from the same edition pack as the web pages, so they always agree. Until release they are review copies.

06 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoring

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/ita/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/ita/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/ita/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/ita/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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  • Evidence close 30 September 2026
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