The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Drought-to-flood year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a drought-to-flood year travel through agriculture, hydropower, health and slopes, a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils?

    INI-ITA-DFL-01 · drought-to-flood year; first output: dependency graph for the Po basin and Romagna.

  2. A-02

    Which homes, schools and lifelines sit in high flood and landslide hazard areas, municipality by municipality?

    INI-ITA-HGR-02 · hydrogeological exposure; first output: exposure register by municipality.

  3. A-03

    Where does the uninsured share of earthquake, flood and landslide losses land, and how would wider cover change it?

    INI-ITA-FIN-03 · protection gap and fiscal backstop; first output: loss-sharing table, 2009–2025.

  4. A-04

    How prepared are the communities around the Campi Flegrei for a further escalation of unrest?

    INI-ITA-GEO-04 · seismic and volcanic readiness; first output: readiness note with evidence grades.

  5. A-05

    What heat surge capacity exists for older people at home and in care in the largest cities?

    INI-ITA-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five cities.

  6. A-06

    How much drought resilience would cutting network losses and adding storage buy in the South and the islands?

    With GS-01 Water; first output: loss and storage note.

  7. A-07

    How are Xylella, drought and wildfire changing olive groves and Mediterranean ecosystems?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-ITA-DFL-01Drought-to-flood year dependency modelInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-ITA-HGR-02Hydrogeological exposure registerInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-ITA-FIN-03Protection gap and fiscal backstopInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-ITA-GEO-04Seismic and volcanic readinessInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-ITA-HLT-05Heat surge readinessInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
MSN-ITA-2027-01Drought-to-flood year Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Italy is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across the twenty regions. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ITA-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-ITA-2027-01 · drought-to-flood year
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
HLT-004 · heat deathsINI-ITA-HLT-05heat surge readinessPUBLIC
WAT-006 · 2023 floodsINI-ITA-DFL-01drought-to-flood yearPUBLIC
WAT-007 · hydrogeological exposureINI-ITA-HGR-02exposure registerPUBLIC
WAT-008 · network lossesGS-01 Water editionloss and storage notePUBLIC
GEO-010 · seismic and volcanicINI-ITA-GEO-04readiness notePUBLIC
FIN-011 · insurance coverINI-ITA-FIN-03 · key F reviewloss sharingPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-ITA-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
National weather and hydrogeological alertsDipartimento della Protezione Civiledailyearly-warning rung
Seismic and volcanic monitoringINGVreal timeRSK-ITA-GEO-004
Water-severity bulletinsbasin district authoritiesweekly in seasonRSK-ITA-WAT-002
Heat-health alert bulletinsMinistry of Healthdaily in seasonRSK-ITA-CLI-001
Electricity dataTernareal timeENE findings
Landslide and flood inventories (IdroGEO)ISPRAperiodicRSK-ITA-CLI-003
Fire-danger forecastsEFFIS · regional servicesdaily in seasonwildfire

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-ITA-001Drought followed by intense rainfall on dried soils1424CORROBORATEDWAT · INFinitiative A-01
SIG-ITA-002Uplift and seismicity at the Campi Flegrei16CORROBORATEDGEO · HLTinitiative A-04
SIG-ITA-003Low compliance with the business insurance mandate13PARTIALFINinitiative A-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
  2. 24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
  3. 16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  4. 13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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