Systems and sectors at baseline

4 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE

Contents

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Water lost in municipal distribution networks

42.4%

of the water fed into networks, one of the highest loss rates in the EU.

Reported2022ISTAT¹²

ENE · Energy

Renewable share of electricity demand

41.2%

Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.

Reported2024Terna⁷ · MASE⁸

FOO · Food

Share of EU agricultural output

≈14%

among the largest producers in the EU.

Reported2024Eurostat²²

HLT · Health

Heat-related deaths, summer

18,010deaths

the highest number of any European country in 2022.

Reported2022Ballester et al.⁴

BIO · Biodiversity

Area burned by wildfire

≈160khectares

in 2021, concentrated in Sicily, Sardinia and Calabria.

Reported2021JRC²⁰

SYS · Cross-system

Homes insured against earthquake and flood

7.3%

while 94% of municipalities face hydrogeological hazard.

Reported2025ANIA¹³ · ISPRA¹¹

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Network losses of 42.4%; drought on the Po in 2022; floods on dried soils in 2023.	WAT → FOO · WAT → ENE	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024; Russian gas replaced after 2022.	ENE ← WAT · ENE → HLT	Reported EQL 4
FOO	A leading EU producer; drought and Xylella stress the South.	FOO ← WAT, BIO	Reported EQL 3
HLT	18,010 heat deaths in 2022; one of Europe’s oldest populations.	HLT ← CLI, ENE	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Rich biodiversity; about a fifth of land in Natura 2000; wildfire in the South and islands.	BIO → WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	2024 the warmest year on record; Alpine glaciers retreating.	forcing on all five systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Roads, rail and buildings exposed to landslides, floods and earthquakes.	INF ← CLI, GEO	Reported EQL 4
FIN	Only 7.3% of homes insured against earthquake and flood.	FIN ← CLI, GEO · FIN → households, State	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Data-centre growth around Milan adds grid demand.	DAT ← ENE	Inferred EQL 2
AIC	Compute growth not yet consolidated in national statistics.	AIC → ENE	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Manufacturing depends on imported raw materials and energy.	MIN → industry	Inferred EQL 3
TRD	Export-led manufacturing and agri-food exposed to energy and freight shocks.	TRD ↔ ENE, FOO	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	coupled drought, heat and floods⁴¹⁴²⁴	drought-to-flood years	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	42.4% network losses¹²	drought; floods	GOOD
GS-02	Energy	41.2% renewables in demand⁷	hydro in dry years; gas supply	GOOD
GS-03	Food	≈14% of EU output²²	drought; Xylella	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	18,010 heat deaths, 2022⁴	heat among older people	GOOD
GS-05	Finance	7.3% of homes insured¹³	uninsured disaster losses	GOOD
GS-06	Development	gaps between North and South	services after disasters	THIN
GS-07	Climate	warmest year 2024²¹	heat, drought, cloudbursts	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	2016 earthquake; 2023 floods¹⁴¹⁵	earthquakes; floods; landslides	GOOD
GS-09	Infrastructure	networks on unstable slopes¹¹	landslides; seismic damage	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	urban heat; flash floods	heat in dense cities	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	about a fifth of land in Natura 2000¹⁸	wildfire; Xylella	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	strong seismic and volcanic monitoring¹⁶	data integration	GOOD
GS-13	Cyber and digital	data-centre growth	outages and attacks	THIN
GS-14	Policy	adaptation plan; insurance mandate⁹¹⁰	implementation	GOOD
GS-15	Science	strong geoscience base	translation into operations	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

12ISTAT (ed.), Le statistiche dell’Istat sull’acqua, anni 2020–2023. ISTAT, Rome, March 2024.back
7Terna (ed.), Consumi elettrici in Italia nel 2024: dati provvisori. Terna, Rome, January 2025.back
8Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Relazione sulla situazione energetica nazionale nel 2023. MASE, Rome, 2024.back
22Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
4J. Ballester, M. Quijal-Zamorano, R. F. Méndez Turrubiates et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022,” Nature Medicine, vol. 29, pp. 1857–1866, 2023.back
20J. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (eds.), Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2021. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 2022.back
13ANIA (ed.), L’assicurazione italiana 2024–2025 and Relazione del Presidente all’Assemblea annuale. ANIA, Rome, July 2025.back
11ISPRA (ed.), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio, Edizione 2021, Rapporti 356/2021. ISPRA, Rome, 2021.back
14Regione Emilia-Romagna (ed.), Alluvione di maggio 2023: rapporto sugli eventi e stima dei danni. Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 2023.back
24Autorità di bacino distrettuale del fiume Po (ed.), Osservatorio permanente sugli utilizzi idrici: bollettini di severità idrica 2022. AdBPo, Parma, 2022.back
21ISPRA and SNPA (eds.), Gli indicatori del clima in Italia nel 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
15Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (ed.), Sequenza sismica del Centro Italia 2016–2017: bilancio e attività. DPC, Rome, 2017.back
18ISPRA (ed.), Annuario dei dati ambientali 2024. ISPRA, Rome, 2025.back
16INGV (ed.), Campi Flegrei: bollettini di sorveglianza 2024–2025. Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica (ed.), Piano Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici (PNACC). MASE, Rome, December 2023.back
10Parlamento (ed.), Legge 30 dicembre 2023, n. 213, art. 1, commi 101–111: obbligo di copertura assicurativa contro i rischi catastrofali per le imprese. Gazzetta Ufficiale, Rome, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Italy Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

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