GRA · Disaster Risk Finance
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Published scenarios
Disaster risk finance scenarios test whether money arrives in time and in proportion: frequent moderate events, rare severe ones, sequences of events and slow-onset droughts. This page sets out scenario designs used to compare risk layers, and the assumptions about timing and basis risk that matter most. Values are design values.
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- 01QuestionNational, regional or institutional priority
- 02EvidenceSTEM foundation of the platform
- 03BuildFoundry
- 04OrganiseNexus ecosystem
- 05TestUniverse (independent site)
- 06PublishReports
- 07DecideCompetent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs)
- 08RenewCorrections and the next annual agenda
Releases appear as they are reviewed.
Analysis runs in Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
Running an event through the layers.
A scenario takes one event at a stated severity and runs it down the layers: what the budget contingency absorbs, when the reserve fund is exhausted, whether contingent credit is drawn, whether the parametric cover triggers and how much is left as residual. Values are illustrative. Anticipatory triggers on forecasts are shown separately because they pay before loss is known.
| Layer | Question in the scenario |
|---|---|
| Retention | Which lines of spending are cut to fund response? |
| Contingent credit | Is the drawdown condition met, and how fast? |
| Transfer | Does the index cross the attachment point? |
| Residual | Who carries what remains? |
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Published scenarios: Disaster risk finance layers
9 steps·4 stages
Process
Published scenarios: Disaster risk finance layers
A World Bank working paper layers risk: reserves finance small losses, and contingent credit and reinsurance add capacity for moderate and catastrophic losses.
01 Risk
- 01Risk profileDataset · Social protection agencyThe layers start from the expected losses a government faces, by size of loss.
02 Layers
- 02Bottom layer: reservesStep · Social protection agencySmall losses are retained and financed from savings and reserves.
- 03Middle layer: contingent creditStep · Social protection agencyContingent credit works best to support risk retention for middle layers. Funds are available only in the event of a disaster.
- 04Top layer: insurance and risk transferStep · Social protection agencySevere losses are transferred through insurance, reinsurance or insurance-linked securities. Cat bonds suit extreme, low-frequency risks.
03 Readiness
- 05Financing agreed before the eventComponent · Social protection agencyThe financing strategy sets in advance which layer responds to which loss. Contingent credit and reinsurance are contracted before an event.
- 06TriggerDecision · Social protection agencyA hard trigger is an objective measure such as event magnitude. A soft trigger is a declaration, such as a government state of emergency.
04 Funds and review
- 07DisbursementStep · Social protection agencyFunds are released once the trigger is met. Parametric insurance can pay within two weeks, with no claims adjustment.
- 08Use of the fundsStep · Social protection agencyParametric payouts suit immediate relief and early recovery. Delivery channels are not described in the sources read.
- 09ReviewStep · Social protection agencyAfter an event the speed of funds and the match between payout and loss are reviewed, and the layers redesigned.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval. No return periods are fixed by the sources read.
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