GRA · Development Finance Nexus
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Published scenarios
Development finance uses scenarios to test whether an investment still serves its purpose under climate, fiscal and demand uncertainty. This page sets out the scenario families used in project and programme appraisal, from climate-informed design and decision-making under deep uncertainty to debt sustainability shocks, with the design choices that matter. Values are design values, never forecasts.
Published scenarios in four parts.
Releases appear as they are reviewed.
Analysis runs in Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
Design-life scenarios for infrastructure and services.
| Element | Content | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Hazard change over design life | Flood, heat, drought and wind at future periods | IPCC AR6 projections, national climate services |
| Service disruption | Days of lost service under each hazard level | Engineering fragility and dependency data |
| Economic effect | Lost output and recovery spending in the service area | Economic analysis with stated assumptions |
| Financing response | Which layer would pay for repair and continuity | Disaster risk finance layering |
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Published scenarios: Climate scenario analysis
7 steps·4 stages
Process
Published scenarios: Climate scenario analysis
The NGFS publishes long-term climate scenarios in four categories; central banks, supervisors and firms apply them, keeping their own risk management duty.
01 Scenarios
- 01Scenario selectionDataset · Safeguards specialistScenarios fall in four categories, from early orderly policy to a late, uncoordinated transition that fails to limit physical risk.
- 02Transition pathwaysModel · NGFSTransition pathways come from three integrated assessment models. Named scenarios include Net Zero 2050 and Current Policies.
02 Channels
- 03Physical riskModel · NGFSChronic impacts come from earth system and climate impact models. Acute impacts come from natural catastrophe models.
- 04Macro-financial impactsModel · NGFSMacro-financial impacts are produced with global macroeconomic models, for transition and for physical risk.
03 Application by users
- 05Sector and asset impactsStep · Safeguards specialistA user translates the pathways into impacts on its own sectors and assets. NGFS notes that users design their own risk frameworks.
- 06Credit and portfolio effectsModel · Safeguards specialistCredit risk parameters and portfolio losses are results of the user's own models, run on the scenario data.
04 Reporting
- 07Disclosure with limits statedDecision · Safeguards specialistThe user decides what to disclose. It should state that the scenarios may miss climate tail risks and other risks.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.
A drought scenario for an irrigation investment.
A drought scenario for an irrigation or hydropower investment reads a seasonal index against reservoir and crop needs, then shows where a parametric drought cover would attach. Values in the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) figures are synthetic. Hydrology evidence at GCRI drought and flood; topic depth at food, water and energy investment.
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