GRA · Capital Markets Nexus
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Capital Markets Nexus
Capital-markets systems, information, infrastructure and cross-market financial risk. Capital Markets Nexus is an established platform of The Global Risks Alliance.
- STEM methods
- 5
- Canonical methods this field applies
- Topics
- 8
- Subject pages in the field
- Counterparts
- 1
- Platforms in shared fields across the network
- Report series
- 2
- Reports series it contributes to
How the work runs.
Market liquidity and clearing monitor
Bond market · Session 2
Bid-ask spread
CCP resources
vs largest two members’ default, illustrative
Settlement and surveillance
| Settlement fails | 84 | ▲ 16 | Normal |
| Margin calls intraday | 9 | ▲ 4 | Elevated |
| Surveillance alerts | 136 | ▼ 1 | Triage |
Fig.Market liquidity and clearing monitor: example names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
What the work is read against.
The platform does not set standards. It reads its evidence against the frameworks that competent bodies have adopted, so a finding can be placed where a decision-maker already works.
| Framework or standard | Body | What it sets |
|---|---|---|
| IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation | International Organization of Securities Commissions | Principles for regulators, issuers, collective investment schemes, intermediaries, secondary markets and clearing and settlement, with an assessment methodology |
| Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures | CPMI and IOSCO | Standards for central counterparties, securities settlement systems, central securities depositories, payment systems and trade repositories, with public quantitative disclosure standards |
| MiFID II and MiFIR | European Union, applied by ESMA and national competent authorities | Trading venue structure, pre-trade and post-trade transparency, transaction reporting, best execution, algorithmic trading controls and investor protection |
| EMIR and Dodd-Frank Act Title VII | European Union; US CFTC and SEC | Clearing obligations, margin for uncleared derivatives, trade repository reporting and supervision of derivatives market participants |
| Policy recommendations on non-bank financial intermediation | Financial Stability Board | Liquidity mismatch in open-ended funds, money market fund resilience, margining practices and non-bank leverage |
| IFRS S1 and IFRS S2 | International Sustainability Standards Board, IFRS Foundation | General sustainability-related and climate-related financial disclosures by issuers for investors |
| Market Abuse Regulation and US anti-fraud and anti-manipulation rules | European Union; US SEC and CFTC | Prohibitions on insider dealing, unlawful disclosure and manipulation, with surveillance and suspicious order reporting duties |
| ISO 10962 Classification of Financial Instruments and ISO 6166 ISIN | International Organization for Standardization | Codes that classify and identify securities and derivatives across venues, reports and jurisdictions |
| ISO 17442 Legal Entity Identifier | ISO, with the Global LEI System overseen by the LEI Regulatory Oversight Committee | A unique identifier for legal entities in financial transactions, with reference and parent relationship data |
| Critical data elements, UTI and UPI technical guidance | CPMI and IOSCO | Harmonised definitions and identifiers for OTC derivatives transaction reporting so trade repository data can be aggregated |
Transition and physical risk on a portfolio.
Three scenario families after the NGFS framework move a sector portfolio through carbon costs and warming damages; the transmission view follows the losses to lenders, investors, public finances and households. Scenario: named assumptions about the future, not a forecast.
Controls
- Carbon price at the horizon, orderly path
- 200 per tCO2
- Delay before a disorderly transition
- 50% of horizon
- Cost passed to customers
- 50%
- Warming today above pre-industrial
- 1.30°C
- Warming per decade, current policies
- 0.25°C
- Damage coefficient
- 0.24% per °C²
- Years ahead
- 25 years
Readouts
- Worst scenario at the horizon
- −33.6% of value
Numbers, methods and sources
| Year | Orderly transition (% value) | Delayed, disorderly transition (% value) | Current policies (% value) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| 3 | −2.87 | −0.53 | −0.67 |
| 6 | −5.36 | −0.68 | −0.97 |
| 9 | −7.84 | −0.84 | −1.27 |
| 12 | −10.33 | −0.99 | −1.57 |
| 15 | −12.82 | −7.12 | −1.87 |
| 18 | −15.31 | −15.05 | −2.17 |
| 21 | −17.80 | −23.00 | −2.48 |
| 24 | −20.29 | −30.94 | −2.79 |
Methods
- Climate scenario families NGFS (2023), Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors, Phase IV
- Climate stress test of the financial system Battiston and others (2017), Nature Climate Change 7
- Damage function Nordhaus (2017), Revisiting the social cost of carbon, PNAS 114
- Transmission channels BCBS (2021), Climate-related risk drivers and their transmission channels
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Urban extents Natural Earth
- Seaports Natural Earth
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo) Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus ERA5 (C3S/ECMWF) · register open-meteo.public-pages
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS) NASA AIRS · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Capital Markets Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Capital Markets Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Finance, Insurance and the Economy in Standards
- Published in Capital Markets Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academy
The questions this field works on.
Equity and fixed income
Market instruments and exposure types.
TopicMarket liquidity
Dislocation and funding stress.
TopicClearing and settlement
Central counterparties and operations.
TopicMarket data quality
Integrity, disclosures and sources.
TopicMarket concentration
Intermediaries, holdings and interconnectedness.
TopicGeopolitical shocks
Cross-border exposures and market response.
TopicDigital markets
AI and tokenisation risks.
TopicMarket conduct
Transparency and professional boundaries.
What Capital Markets Nexus means for exposure, loss and capital.
The exposure, loss, scenario and capital views a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance would ask for, with the frameworks they report against. Structures follow supervisory and actuarial practice. Values are illustrative: never prices, ratings or advice.
Capital, solvency and fiscal indicators
The indicators a risk officer, supervisor or ministry of finance reads first on Capital Markets Nexus.
| Indicator | Unit | Who reads it | Framework |
|---|---|---|---|
| CET1 ratio | % of risk-weighted assets | Banks, supervisors | Basel framework |
| Liquidity coverage ratio | % of stressed outflows | Banks, central banks | Basel framework |
| Solvency ratio | % of solvency capital requirement | Insurers, supervisors | IAIS Insurance Core Principles |
| Combined ratio | % of earned premium | Insurers | Actuarial practice |
| Protection gap | uninsured share of economic loss | Insurers, ministries of finance | Published loss statistics |
| Public debt | % of GDP | Ministries of finance, IMF | Debt Sustainability Framework |
| Gross financing needs | % of GDP per year | Ministries of finance, investors | Debt Sustainability Framework |
Transmission channels
How a shock in Capital Markets Nexus reaches credit, market, underwriting, liquidity and operational risk, and feeds back.
What Capital Markets Nexus does.
Capital markets risk is the risk of loss or disruption in the markets where securities are issued, traded, cleared and settled, from price and credit moves to liquidity spirals, infrastructure failure and misconduct. Capital Markets Nexus, the Global Risks Alliance’s platform for the sector, explains how markets price, transfer and concentrate risk; it gives no investment or trading advice.
Its community
Capital market professionals; analysts; market infrastructure specialists.
Its methods
Market structure; volatility; liquidity; risk propagation.
Its outputs
Market-risk analysis; infrastructure resilience research.
Markets that work most of the time can fail together.
Capital markets turn savings into long-term investment, let firms and governments raise funds, allow risk to be transferred and produce the prices that guide decisions across the economy. Their resilience matters far beyond the firms that operate in them.
Intermediaries and venues
Who provides liquidity, where trading happens and how market structure changes behaviour under stress.
Clearing, settlement and data
The plumbing that turns trades into transfers, and the information that prices depend on.
Cross-market contagion
Leverage, collateral, common exposures and correlated strategies that carry stress between markets.
Under normal conditions, markets look deep and continuous. Under stress, liquidity can vanish: dealers step back, margin calls force sales, funding markets tighten and prices move further than fundamentals justify. Episodes such as the global financial crisis, the market turmoil at the start of the pandemic and sharp moves in government bond markets have shown how quickly stress travels from one market to another through common holdings, leverage, collateral and the infrastructure that connects them.
The system has become more interconnected and, in places, more concentrated. Central counterparties clear large volumes of derivatives and repo; a small number of index providers, data vendors, custodians and cloud services sit beneath many firms; passive and systematic strategies can cause many investors to move in the same direction. Digital assets, tokenisation and artificial intelligence add new instruments and new correlations. Real-economy shocks, from wars and sanctions to climate events and cyber incidents, reach markets through all of these channels.
The industry problem is shared understanding: how structure, information and infrastructure shape the way risk propagates, so that participants, infrastructures and authorities can each act on a common factual base.
Research for the industry, not execution.
The platform’s methods are the analysis of market structure, volatility, liquidity and risk propagation. It is designed to publish market-risk analysis and infrastructure resilience research that firms, infrastructures and public authorities can examine and use.
Who it serves
Capital market professionals, analysts and market infrastructure specialists, with risk managers, researchers and supervisors as readers.
How it works
Market microstructure, econometric analysis of liquidity and volatility, network models of exposure and scenario analysis, each with stated limits.
What it is designed to publish
Market-risk analysis and infrastructure resilience research, at sector level and in aggregated form.
GRA is a nonprofit business league for the financial services industry. It does not lend, underwrite, rate, invest, advise on or arrange transactions, introduce counterparties or take transaction-based pay, and readiness work is not approval.
Grounded in STEM, connected across the Consortium.
The platform applies financial economics and macro-finance, network science and contagion, payment and financial market technology, econometrics and distributed ledgers and digital assets; see the STEM foundation of Capital Markets Nexus. Its governance counterpart is Capital Nexus at the Global Risks Forum (GRF), which convenes on capital and finance governance. Within GRA it works alongside Payments and Market Infrastructure, Financial Stability, Asset Management Nexus and Fintech Nexus.
- Capital NexusInstitutionGlobal Risks Forum (GRF)RelationshipCounterpart: governance and institutional dialogue on capital and finance.
- Payments and Market InfrastructureInstitutionGlobal Risks Alliance (GRA)RelationshipPayment systems and market infrastructure in depth.
- Financial StabilityInstitutionGlobal Risks Alliance (GRA)RelationshipSystem-wide financial stability and contagion.
Field gateways: Capital markets and investment and Financial stability. Network methods are shared with Systems Science and Modelling at The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).
The areas of capital markets and investment this platform takes on.
Capital Markets Nexus studies how capital markets price, transfer and concentrate risk: the equity and bond markets where securities are issued and traded, the funding and derivatives markets that connect them, the central counterparties and settlement systems that make trades final, and the data and conduct rules that keep prices informative. Its pages set out mechanisms, measures, sources and the institutions that hold each decision. As the financial-sector view of the Global Risks Alliance, they describe shared industry understanding, not investment advice.
Securities and exposures
Equities, government and corporate bonds and the exposure types they carry: duration, credit, equity and currency risk.
Market liquidity and funding
How the ability to trade and to fund positions erodes under stress, and how dislocation spreads from one market to the next.
Clearing and settlement
Central counterparties, securities settlement systems and the margin, default and recovery arrangements that make trades final.
Market data and disclosure
Reference data, trade reporting, issuer disclosure and the identifiers that make market records comparable and auditable.
Concentration and interconnectedness
Dealers, asset managers, custodians and clearing members whose size and links shape how a shock travels.
Cross-border and geopolitical risk
Sanctions, capital flows, currency funding and foreign holdings through which geopolitical events reach markets.
Digital markets
Algorithmic and AI-driven trading, tokenised securities, stablecoins and the operational dependencies they add to market structure.
Market conduct
Market abuse, transparency obligations, conflicts of interest and the professional boundaries that protect price formation.
Built on named science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Every claim on Capital Markets Nexus rests on methods with a canonical page in the STEM Commons, so readers can see what a finding depends on and where its limits lie.
How work moves in this field.
A question becomes evidence, a governed build, an organised community, a controlled test, a reviewed publication and, finally, a decision taken by the competent authority under its own rules.
- Question Universe National, regional or institutional priority. Question in Capital Markets Nexus
- Evidence Foundry STEM foundation of the platform. Evidence in Capital Markets Nexus
- Build Foundry Foundry. Build in Capital Markets Nexus
- Organise Universe Nexus ecosystem. Organise in Capital Markets Nexus
- Test Universe Universe (independent site). Test in Capital Markets Nexus
- Publish Reports Reports. Publish in Capital Markets Nexus
- Decide Competent authority Competent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs). Decide in Capital Markets Nexus
- Renew Universe Corrections and the next annual agenda. Renew in Capital Markets Nexus
Each step of the cycle in the pillar it runs in; the decision stays with the competent authority, outside the programme.
- Labs
- Foundry
- Universe
- Nexus Standards
- Reports
- Risk Academy
- Competent authority (outside the programme)
How this works across the six pillars.
Capital Markets Nexus works through six pillars of one annual programme, led by the Nexus Consortium, with GCRI, GRF and GRA each contributing in its role: explore, experiment and prototype in Labs, build, simulate and prepare in Foundry, convene and test in Universe, codify, correct and apply in Nexus Standards, publish in every format in Reports, teach in the open in Risk Academy.
handoff in playrecorded handoffno direct handoff
Programme yearAll phases
Route
The whole programme
Every pillar hands its work to another; together they close the year’s feedback loops.
L · F · U · S · R · A
- Pillars
- 6 of 6
- Handoffs
- 18 of 18
- Loops
- 17 closed
Handoffs in play
- F01Universe → Foundry · Admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision caseReadiness preparation
- F02Foundry → Universe · Core Build Report and go or no-go evidenceControlled build
- F03Foundry → Reports · Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profileCloseout
- F04Universe → Reports · After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13After-action review
and 14 more
- LabsWhere questions become experiments and prototypes: new methods, data and tools are tried in the open, with their limits on record, before the Foundry builds them, under the Nexus Consortium.Labs
- FoundryWhere exposure and scenario evidence is built so supervisors, insurers and investors can read it.Capital Markets Nexus in FoundryFoundry
- UniverseWhere scenarios are tested in controlled exercises, and finance-readiness dialogues read what they mean for capital and cover.Capital Markets Nexus in Universeuniverse.nexus
- Nexus StandardsWhere disclosure and data rules are codified so risk evidence is comparable for finance and insurance.Finance, Insurance and the Economy in Standardsnexustandards.com
- ReportsWhere sector analysis and the finance and insurance readiness series are published, with exposure and limits stated.Capital Markets Nexus in ReportsReports
- Risk AcademyWhere finance, insurance and public-finance professionals learn to read risk evidence, on Risk Academy.Faculty of Finance and Economics in Academyrisksacademy.com
The same field, seen three ways.
GCRI studies a field as science, GRF governs it and GRA builds shared financial understanding of it. Capital Markets Nexus links to its counterparts so that work on one side is visible on the others.
Pages in Capital Markets Nexus.
Industry scope and publisher
PageFinancial discipline overview
PageProfessional research
PageTechnology and emerging practices
PageResilience and finance readiness
PageResearch and industry programmes
PageAnalytical and data resources
PageProfessional community
PageProfessional learning
PageProfessional meetings
PageReports and sector briefs
PageMembership and research participation
PageContact the industry platform
PageAntitrust, independence and financial perimeter
PageSTEM foundation of Capital Markets Nexus
PageHow work moves in this field
PageBuild in Foundry
PageTest in Universe
PagePublish in Reports
PageThe same field across the Consortium
PageTopics
Questions and answers.
Who publishes Capital Markets Nexus?
Is Capital Markets Nexus active?
How can I contribute?
Where are findings published?
Which values on this platform are real?
How do I report an error?
Does the platform give investment advice or market views?
Can firms share data with the platform?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GRASend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGlobal Risks AllianceSee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
How Capital Markets Nexus works.
Choose a view and press Play to follow the platform’s process, its programme year, the standards it applies and how its findings are published. The outline shows how the work is designed to run, not the status of any decision.
Capital Markets Nexus
How Capital Markets Nexus works
Platforms · Programme year · Standards · Reports
A platform joins a field to named methods, labelled evidence and the outputs it publishes, without becoming the authority it serves.
01 Scope
- 01Field and familiesStart · The platform leadThe home states the field, its families and who it serves.
- 02Topic dossiersRecord · Platform authorsTopics explain the subject with labelled evidence.
02 Evidence
- 03Evidence labelsRecord · GCRIEach value is labelled: observed, published statistics, estimated, modelled, scenario or unknown.
- 04MethodsStep · Method ownersMethods come from the STEM Commons, each with one canonical page.
03 Work
- 05Scenarios on the systemsModel · Foundry pillarScenarios run on the Nexus systems, labelled as scenario.
- 06Standards that applyRecord · Nexus StandardsThe platform names the standards that apply. A validator report is evidence for review.
04 Publish
- 07EditionsRecord · ReportsFindings are published through Reports with their limits.
- 08Authority decidesOutcome · The competent authorityDecisions and execution stay with the government, operator or licensed institution.
Capital Markets Nexus home · Platforms · Shared methodsAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.
Take part in Capital Markets Nexus.
Start from who you are. Answer an open call. Or form and lead a competence cell on the Capital Markets Nexus platform.
National institutions
Ministries, statistics offices and agencies: a national desk and chapter, and a seat in the working groups. National chapters
Sectors and professions
Operators, regulators, banks, insurers and professional bodies whose work touches Capital Markets Nexus. Participate
Learning
Courses and practice, with a record of every course completed. Free to study. Open learning
Standards
Draft, review and adopt the methods and data standards with the working groups. Working groups
Communities and research
Universities, civil society and individual experts: projects, data and review. Write to the team
| Open call | Seeks | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Founding call for experts to the working groups CALL-FOUNDING-EXPERTS | expert, editor, chair | 2026-12-15 |
| Open nomination for the three independent expert seats of the Global Standards Council CALL-GSC-IND | council-member | 2026-12-01 |
| Nominations of interim regional members (applies only if the transitional provision is decided) CALL-GSC-REG | council-member | 2026-12-15 |
| Review of the wave-1 risk core outlines (C1, C2, C3, C4, C8, C10, C11) CALL-REVIEW-WAVE1 | contributor | 2027-01-31 |
| Experts for the core standards of risk science: uncertainty and evidence grading, scales, structured expert judgement, tolerability, extremes and compound events, catastrophic and existential risk, ethics and equity, units and measurement (NRS-C17 to NRS-C24) CALL-CORE-SCIENCE | expert, editor, chair | 2027-01-31 |
| Independent reviewers for the families of the hazard atlas, three from at least two regions for each family (NHS2-R19), priority families first CALL-ATLAS-REVIEW | expert | 2027-03-31 |
| Members of the interim Frontier Safety Review Panel and red-team reviewers (biosafety and biosecurity, AI safety and security, critical-infrastructure security); applications treated in confidence CALL-FRONTIER-SAFETY-REVIEW | expert | 2026-11-30 |
| Experts in ontology, metrology, software verification and conformity assessment for the requirement register, the NHS-2 machine representation, the conformance test suites and the conformity assessment scheme CALL-CONFORMANCE-ONTOLOGY | expert, editor | 2027-01-31 |
Calls past their closing date are hidden automatically. Every call, proposal and route: open areas and calls.
Gather the cell
Bring together three to seven people with complementary skills: data, field practice, policy and communication.
Register it
Write to the team with the cell’s name, members, area and region. You receive a reference and a contact. Write to the team
Choose a charter
Pick one focus: research and evidence, data and maps, standards review, or community preparedness.
Learn together
Follow shared study paths at Risk Academy, with practice and a record of every course completed. Hazards and resilience
Lead and report
Hold regular sessions. Publish what the cell learns through Reports. Bring findings to the working groups. Working groups
What a national team or a local community can do on The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) today.
Your country’s profile
Open risk profiles for 195 countries, with sources and licences on every value. Open the Index
Correct or reply
Correct a value or reply for your country. The change is logged with its effect. Open the Index
Offer data
Offer a dataset. It enters through the licence gate, with your credit. Open the Index
Every figure on this page is indexed: hazards, climate, conflict, the world.
The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.
- 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
- 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
- 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
- 04 · This pageCapital Markets NexusMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of hazards, climate, conflict.Public API
Series in this context hazards, climate, conflict
- GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Hazards · Climate · Conflict
- THDisaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.NXS-GRX-AR-000111Hazards · Climate · Conflict
- GSGlobal CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk.NXS-GRX-AR-000068Hazards · Infrastructure · Climate
- GSGlobal ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.NXS-GRX-AR-000065Climate · Hazards · Finance
Country profiles the world
Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply
Hazard domains NHS-1
- Atmosphere and weatherNXS-GRX-AR-000135
- Solid EarthNXS-GRX-AR-000138
- Systemic and compound eventsNXS-GRX-AR-000148
Geodata and API open
Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines
/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0
Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.
Bring an exposure or capital question to the Alliance.
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Legal documents.
Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.