- Global Water 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four water risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
InferredEQL 3RSK-GS01-WAT-001
Multi-basin drought
- Driver
- heat and low precipitation across several major basins
- Exposure
- hydropower, irrigated agriculture, cities
- Vulnerability
- low storage; over-allocated rivers
- Capacity
- storage, demand management, trade
- Cascade
- WAT → ENE, FOO → TRD
- Horizon
- 1–3 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS01-WAT-002
Groundwater depletion in irrigated aquifers
- Driver
- pumping above recharge
- Exposure
- irrigated food production; rural supply
- Vulnerability
- falling water tables; salinisation
- Capacity
- monitoring; allocation; managed recharge
- Cascade
- WAT → FOO → HLT
- Horizon
- 5–10 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS01-CLI-003
Riverine and urban flooding
- Driver
- extreme rainfall; storm surge; snowmelt
- Exposure
- cities, floodplains, deltas
- Vulnerability
- informal settlements; thin insurance
- Capacity
- early warning; defences; nature-based solutions
- Cascade
- WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS01-CRY-004
Loss of glacier-fed summer flows
- Driver
- accelerating glacier mass loss21
- Exposure
- mountain-fed basins in Asia, the Andes and the Alps
- Vulnerability
- dependence on dry-season melt
- Capacity
- storage; adaptation planning
- Cascade
- WAT → FOO, ENE
- Horizon
- 10 years and beyond
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for water at the global level.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | EXISTS | integrated water management plans widespread; implementation uneven10 | |
| Monitoring and observation | ADEQUATE | river and satellite storage records strong; groundwater and quality sparse519 | |
| Early warning | DEMONSTRATED | flood warning in real events; 108 countries report multi-hazard systems33 | |
| Preparedness and planning | EXISTS | drought plans in many countries; few tested at scale | |
| Redundancy and reserves | EXISTS | reservoir and aquifer storage; strategic reserves rare | |
| Response | DEMONSTRATED | emergency water supply after disasters | |
| Continuity of critical services | EXISTS | utility continuity plans; supply interrupted in severe events | |
| Recovery | EXISTS | post-flood reconstruction programmes | |
| Adaptation | EXISTS | storage, reuse and desalination expanding | |
| Social protection | LISTED | water-specific support for poor households rarely documented | |
| Finance and insurance | EXISTS | flood cover thin in many regions; water investment below need36 | |
| Institutional coordination | EXISTS | transboundary arrangements incomplete9 | |
| Technical infrastructure | EXISTS | networks ageing; losses from leakage widespread | |
| Workforce | LISTED | skills gaps in utilities widely reported | |
| Research capacity | ADEQUATE | strong hydrological science; translation uneven12 | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 21R. Hugonnet, R. McNabb, E. Berthier et al., “Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century,” Nature, vol. 592, pp. 726–731, 2021.back
- 10UN-Water (ed.), Blueprint for Acceleration: Sustainable Development Goal 6 Synthesis Report on Water and Sanitation 2023. United Nations, Geneva, 2023.back
- 5WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2023. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2024.back
- 19M. Rodell, J. S. Famiglietti, D. N. Wiese et al., “Emerging trends in global freshwater availability,” Nature, vol. 557, pp. 651–659, 2018.back
- 33WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back
- 36OECD (ed.), Financing a Water Secure Future. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2022.back
- 9UNECE and UNESCO (eds.), Progress on Transboundary Water Cooperation: Global Status of SDG Indicator 6.5.2 and Acceleration Needs, 2024. United Nations, Geneva and Paris, 2024.back
- 12R. Caretta, A. Mukherji et al., “Water,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, pp. 551–712. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2022.back