The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 water agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 water edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Water is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-basin drought under heat
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the water candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. W-01

    How would a multi-year drought across several major basins affect hydropower, irrigated yields and urban supply at the same time?

    INI-GS01-MBD-01 · multi-basin drought; first output: concurrency analysis for six basins.

  2. W-02

    Where are the major irrigated aquifers declining fastest, and how much food production depends on them?

    INI-GS01-GWT-02 · groundwater dependence; first output: aquifer–crop dependence register.

  3. W-03

    How much water will data centres and the energy transition need by 2030, and where?

    INI-GS01-ENE-03 · water for energy and compute; first output: regional demand estimates.

  4. W-04

    How fast are glacier-fed basins approaching peak water, and who depends on their summer flows?

    INI-GS01-CRY-04 · glacier-fed basins; first output: basin dependence map.

  5. W-05

    Where do flood losses fall on the uninsured, and which capabilities reduce them?

    INI-GS01-FLD-05 · flood protection gap; first output: flood loss and cover table.

  6. W-06

    Which transboundary basins lack operational arrangements where stress is rising?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement–stress overlay.

  7. W-07

    How do water quality and wastewater gaps couple to health in fast-growing cities?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. W-08

    Which water capabilities have been tested in real droughts and floods, and which are only planned?

    Water capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 water portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS01-MBD-01Multi-basin drought concurrencyInitiativeW-01PROPOSED
INI-GS01-GWT-02Groundwater dependence of food productionInitiativeW-02PROPOSED
INI-GS01-ENE-03Water for energy and computeInitiativeW-03PROPOSED
INI-GS01-CRY-04Glacier-fed basin dependenceInitiativeW-04PROPOSED
INI-GS01-FLD-05Flood protection gapInitiativeW-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS01-2027-01Multi-basin drought Universe missionMissionW-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The water edition reads national water chapters, regional basin evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; Canada’s and the global water chapters are issued.

  1. 01

    National water chapters

    water system of each national edition

    CANADA ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  2. 02

    Basin and regional evidence

    shared basins and aquifers

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Water sector model

    the global water system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB · SR-07 food–water–energy · SR-09 boundaries

    GLB ISSUED · SR pilots in 2026–2027

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Water Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the water candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the water candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS01-2027-01 · multi-basin drought
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead, drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
WAT-001 · accesspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
WAT-004 · rivers and glaciersINI-GS01-CRY-04glacier-fed basinsPUBLIC
WAT-005 · groundwaterINI-GS01-GWT-02groundwater dependencePUBLIC
ENE-007 · energy withdrawalsINI-GS01-ENE-03water for energy and computePUBLIC
CLI-010 · flood lossesINI-GS01-FLD-05 · key F reviewflood protection gapPUBLIC
GOV-011 · transboundaryregional consortiaarrangement–stress overlayPUBLIC
HLT-008 · WASH deathsGS-04 Health editionhealth couplingPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS01-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Global Runoff Data CentreWMO and BfGperiodicWAT-004
Global flood awareness system (GloFAS)Copernicus Emergency Management ServicedailyRSK-GS01-CLI-003
Hydrological status and outlook (HydroSOS)WMOmonthlySCN-GS01-MBD-01
Terrestrial water storage (GRACE-FO)NASA and GFZmonthlyWAT-005
AQUASTATFAOperiodicFOO-006
JMP databaseWHO · UNICEFbiennialWAT-001
Disaster loss estimatesreinsurers and index providersper eventCLI-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS01-001Driest year for global rivers in 33 years in 20235CORROBORATEDWAT · ENE · FOOresearch question W-01
SIG-GS01-002Accelerating groundwater declines in many aquifers20CORROBORATEDWAT · FOOinitiative W-02
SIG-GS01-003Rising cooling-water demand from data centres13PARTIALWAT · ENE · AICresearch question W-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2023. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2024.back
  2. 20S. Jasechko, H. Seybold, D. Perrone et al., “Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally,” Nature, vol. 625, pp. 715–721, 2024.back
  3. 13International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Water Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the World’s Water System (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Water and its partners

Water gives irrigation to food (0.8), cooling water and hydropower to energy (0.6) and environmental flows to biodiversity (0.6).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
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Relations
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Coupling
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  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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