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GRA · Financial Stability

Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition

Reader questions and safeguards

System-wide analysis fails when its scope, linkages or behavioural assumptions are left implicit. This checklist sets out what must be stated before a system-wide scenario is designed, from the sectors in scope to the outcome that would count as a breach of a critical function, using public data and labelled assumptions.

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01Contents

Reader questions and safeguards in four parts.

In this dossier4 parts
  1. 01ChecklistSeven questions
  2. 02ChecklistBefore a system-wide scenario is designed
  3. 03DataPublic statistics that support the work
  4. 04SourcesWhere this page's references lead
02Checklist

Seven questions.

  1. 01

    Purpose

    What problem does the programme address, and for whom?

  2. 02

    Evidence

    What hazard, exposure and vulnerability evidence supports it, with what uncertainty?

  3. 03

    Ownership

    Who owns the programme and answers for it?

  4. 04

    Governance

    How are decisions taken, recorded and challenged?

  5. 05

    Data

    Which data is used, on what terms, and how is it protected?

  6. 06

    Risks

    What could go wrong, and how is it managed?

  7. 07

    Monitoring

    How will results be measured and reported?

03Before a system-wide scenario

Before a system-wide scenario is designed.

  • Sectors in scope: banks, insurers, pension funds, open-ended funds, hedge funds, central counterparties.
  • Linkages: bilateral exposures, common holdings, funding and margin relationships, at the resolution public data allows.
  • Behaviour: what each sector is assumed to do under stress, with sources.
  • Shock narrative: the physical, operational or market event, with its geography.
  • Exit: what result would count as a breach of a critical function.
04Process

How the process runs.

Process explorer · Process

Reader questions and safeguards: Policy question to decision

9 steps5 stages1 gate

Process

Reader questions and safeguards: Policy question to decision

A priority becomes a question, evidence, a decision case and a limited publication; the competent authority decides, never the programme.

  1. 01 Question

    1. 01A priority becomes a questionStep · Universe; national counterpartsA priority becomes a researchable question with stated criteria. National counterparts own the agenda, data and decisions.
    2. 03Scientific and stakeholder challengeStep · the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI); the Global Risks Forum (GRF)Scientific and affected-stakeholder challenge informs mission selection and methods.

  2. 02 Evidence and options

    1. 04Assemble the evidenceStep · GCRIMethods, labelled data and uncertainty are assembled. Every finding carries one of nine evidence labels.
    2. 06Decision case with optionsRecord · The decision owner named in the caseA decision case binds owner, alternatives, evidence and deadline. It needs sensitivity and robustness.

  3. 03 Review and publication

    1. 07G6 · Publication authorisedGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF authorises publication of results that have passed scientific and editorial review. It cannot publish personal data.
    2. 08Publish with method, uncertainty and limitsRecord · ReportsFindings are published with their method, uncertainty and limits. An edition is published after review, not to a calendar.

  4. 04 Outside the programme

    1. 02Competent authority decidesDecision · The competent authorityThe authority or institution decides under its own rules. The authority decides; the programme informs.
    2. 05Action and implementation stay with the ownersActor · The relevant government, operator or licensed institutionDecisions and execution stay with the relevant government, operator or licensed institution. The programme records one only if shared.

  5. 05 Learning

    1. 09Corrections and lessons feed the next agendaStep · UniverseCorrections and lessons feed the next annual agenda. The findings of one year set the mandate of the next.

The Nexus cycle · Decision rights · The programme yearDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation.

05Data

Public statistics that support the work.

BIS international banking and debt securities statistics, FSB nonbank monitoring and national flow-of-funds accounts are the main public sources. Network models are described at GCRI networks and cascades.

06Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

07Questions

Questions and answers.

Is the checklist a standard?
No. It is a working aid. Institutions apply their own standards and rules.
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