Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

3 min read0 figures1 table15 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Crises are entangled, not stacked
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR01-FOO-001

    Concurrent breadbasket shortfall

    Driver
    heat and drought in several producing regions in one season
    Exposure
    import-dependent countries; low-income households
    Vulnerability
    concentrated exports; thin stocks; price-sensitive diets
    Capacity
    trade openness; reserves; social protection
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO → TRD → HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal · 1 and 5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR01-FIN-002

    Uninsured losses where cover is thin

    Driver
    rising frequency of floods, storms and fires
    Exposure
    Asia, Africa, small island states
    Vulnerability
    low insurance; limited fiscal space13
    Capacity
    sovereign and parametric cover; development finance
    Cascade
    CLI → FIN → households, sovereigns
    Horizon
    annual

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR01-MIN-003

    Concentration in critical-mineral refining

    Driver
    rising demand for transition and compute minerals
    Exposure
    battery, grid and chip supply chains
    Vulnerability
    top three refiners average about 86%36
    Capacity
    stockpiles; recycling; diversification
    Cascade
    MIN → ENE, AIC → FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR01-CLI-004

    Crossing of Earth-system tipping points

    Driver
    continued warming above 1.5 °C
    Exposure
    coasts, coral reefs, monsoon and polar systems
    Vulnerability
    irreversibility once thresholds are crossed
    Capacity
    emission cuts; monitoring; adaptation
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO, WAT → all
    Horizon
    10 years and beyond

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSParis and Sendai frameworks; emissions still rising32931
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDglobal observing systems underpin WMO and C3S records139
Early warningEXISTS108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 202435
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnational adaptation plans uneven; adaptation finance gap of US$187–359 billion a year42
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDno coordinated global food or mineral reserve
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDinternational humanitarian response in real events; chronically underfunded
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSsector-level plans; limited cross-border testing
RecoveryEXISTSdevelopment finance and debt relief instruments
AdaptationEXISTSplans widespread; finance below need42
Social protectionEXISTS52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit44
Finance and insuranceEXISTSdeep markets in some regions; about half of losses uninsured2
Institutional coordinationEXISTSnew pandemic agreement and IHR amendments2728
Technical infrastructureEXISTSglobal networks concentrated in few chokepoints
WorkforceLISTEDhealth and emergency workforce shortages widely reported
Research capacityADEQUATEIPCC and IPBES assessments; translation uneven1516
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
  2. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  3. 3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
  4. 29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
  5. 31UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
  6. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
  7. 39Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2024. ECMWF, Reading, January 2025.back
  8. 35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back
  9. 42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
  10. 44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
  11. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
  12. 27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.back
  13. 28World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.back
  14. 15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
  15. 16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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