- Global Systems 2026
- Chapter 5
Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1The world’s risk is entangled, not additive
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
5.1Assumptions
Scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.
- Baseline
- the 2026 reference state in this edition
- Drivers
- heat and drought across two or more major grain-exporting regions in one season, while gas and fertiliser prices spike
- Analogues
- 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 food price spikes; 2022 energy and fertiliser shock
- Interventions
- none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
- Run state
- narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 202723
5.2The cascade, step by step
- 1
CLI → FOO
heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once
2010 · 2012
- 2
ENE → FOO
fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs
2022
- 3
FOO → TRD
export restrictions amplify the price rise
2008 · 2011
- 4
TRD → HLT
food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households
2008
- 5
FIN → sovereigns
import bills and subsidies widen deficits
2022
- 6
HLT → development
hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings
2011
5.3The scenario as a table of steps
How the shock in scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01 would travel through Global Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Climate to food | Heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once. Analogue or source: 2010 · 2012. | Edition GLB, scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01, step 1 |
| 02 Energy to food | Fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs. Analogue or source: 2022. | Edition GLB, scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01, step 2 |
| 03 Food to trade | Export restrictions amplify the price rise. Analogue or source: 2008 · 2011. | Edition GLB, scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01, step 3 |
| 04 Trade to health | Food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households. Analogue or source: 2008. | Edition GLB, scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01, step 4 |
| 05 Finance to sovereigns | Import bills and subsidies widen deficits. Analogue or source: 2022. | Edition GLB, scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01, step 5 |
| 06 Health to development | Hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings. Analogue or source: 2011. | Edition GLB, scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01, step 6 |
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Systems 2026, scenario SCN-GLB-BBF-01 (2026); Global Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back