The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 global agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 global edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The world’s risk is entangled, not additive
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the global candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. G-01

    How likely is a simultaneous shortfall across major breadbaskets at 1.5–2 °C, and which import-dependent countries are most exposed?

    INI-GLB-FOO-01 · breadbasket concurrency; first output: concurrency model and exposure register.

  2. G-02

    Where does the uninsured share of disaster losses land, by region, peril and income group?

    INI-GLB-FIN-02 · global protection-gap atlas; first output: region-by-peril loss table, 2015–2025.

  3. G-03

    How do AI compute demand, power systems, water and critical-mineral refining constrain one another?

    INI-GLB-TEC-03 · compute–power–minerals nexus; first output: demand and concentration map.

  4. G-04

    Which tipping systems are closest, and which indicators would give early warning?

    INI-GLB-CLI-04 · tipping indicators register; first output: indicator register with evidence grades.

  5. G-05

    How does debt service constrain adaptation and recovery where hazard is highest?

    INI-GLB-FIN-05 · debt–adaptation constraint; first output: exposure–fiscal space matrix.

  6. G-06

    How do heat and water stress couple through health, labour and food in the tropics?

    INI-GLB-HLT-06 · heat–water–labour; first output: regional heat–work exposure layer.

  7. G-07

    Where do early-warning gaps coincide with high hazard and thin insurance?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: gap overlay with WMO and UNDRR data.

  8. G-08

    How do conflict, displacement and climate hazards compound in fragile settings?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 global portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GLB-FOO-01Breadbasket concurrency modelInitiativeG-01PROPOSED
INI-GLB-FIN-02Global protection-gap atlasInitiativeG-02PROPOSED
INI-GLB-TEC-03Compute–power–minerals nexusInitiativeG-03PROPOSED
INI-GLB-CLI-04Tipping indicators registerInitiativeG-04PROPOSED
INI-GLB-FIN-05Debt–adaptation constraintInitiativeG-05PROPOSED
INI-GLB-HLT-06Heat–water–labour exposureInitiativeG-06PROPOSED
MSN-GLB-2027-01Breadbasket–energy compound Universe missionMissionG-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The global edition is the top of the federation. It does not collect its own evidence. It reads national, regional and sector editions through one governed evidence graph, so a correction made anywhere travels everywhere. At baseline the federation is designed and its first edition is issued.

  1. 01

    National Foundries

    continuous national evidence environments

    PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

  2. 02

    National Models and Portfolios

    each country as a system of systems

    CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  3. 03

    Quarterly national reports

    State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

    BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

  4. 04

    Regional aggregation

    ten regional clusters

    10 PLANNED · regional baselines in 2026–2027

  5. 05

    Global sector and strategic models

    GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

    49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

  6. 06

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

  7. 07

    Global Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the global candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the global candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GLB-2027-01 · breadbasket–energy compound shock
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead, drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · temperaturepublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
FIN-002 · lossesfinance-readiness review (key F)protection-gap atlas G-02PUBLIC
FIN-003 · regional insured sharesregional consortiaregional loss splitsPUBLIC
ENE-005 · data-centre demandINI-GLB-TEC-03compute–power–minerals nexusPUBLIC
FOO-006 · hungerINI-GLB-FOO-01breadbasket concurrencyPUBLIC
CLI-010 · boundaries and tippingINI-GLB-CLI-04tipping registerPUBLIC
FIN-011 · debt serviceINI-GLB-FIN-05debt–adaptation constraintPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GLB-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Monthly climate bulletinsCopernicus Climate Change ServicemonthlyCLI-001
ENSO outlooksWMO and national centresmonthlySCN-GLB-BBF-01
Global disaster alertsGDACS (UN and European Commission)near real timeFIN findings
Disease outbreak newsWHOper eventhealth signals
Crop and market monitoringFAO GIEWS · AMISmonthlyRSK-GLB-FOO-001
Energy market reportsIEAmonthlyENE findings
Catastrophe loss estimatesreinsurers and index providersper eventFIN-002

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GLB-001Earth’s energy imbalance at a record high in 20251CORROBORATEDCLI · alltipping register G-04
SIG-GLB-002Non-peak perils dominate insured losses2CORROBORATEDFIN · CLIprotection-gap atlas G-02
SIG-GLB-003Rapid growth in data-centre electricity demand5PARTIALENE · WAT · MINresearch question G-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
  2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
  3. 5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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