Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Britain has too much water in winter and too little in summer. Flood exposure is rising while the South and East face a projected supply shortfall.

6.3million

properties at flood risk, England8

≈5bn litres/day

shortfall by 20559

>460kspills

storm overflows, 202310

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Flood exposureabout one in four properties in England8Reported
Supplyshortfall projected by 2055 without action9Scenario
Qualitystorm overflow spills; river condition10Reported
Governancewater-sector reform law in 202526Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT drinking water and river quality
  • WAT → INF flooding of networks
  • WAT → FIN uninsured flood losses

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • basin stress in the South and East
  • flood exposure in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

The power system has changed fastest of all: coal ended in 2024 and clean power is planned for 2030. Electrification makes the grid the backbone of other systems.

373Mt CO₂e

emissions, 20241

2024Sept

last coal power station closed18

2030target

clean power plan16

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Emissions373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 19901Reported
Coallast coal power station closed in September 202418Reported
Clean poweraction plan for 2030 published1617Reported
Single points of failuresubstation fire closed Heathrow in 202519Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → HLT power for care and cooling
  • ENE → DAT data centres
  • ENE → INF transport and airports

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • substation and network redundancy
  • data-centre connection demand

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. Import and energy prices pass quickly to households, and drought and heat cut domestic yields.

≈60%

of food produced domestically14

≈40%

imported (derived)14

2022shock

energy and food price rise

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Self-supplyaround 60% of food consumed14Reported
Importsmainly from Europe14Reported
Climatedrought and heat cut yields4Reported
Pricesenergy costs pass into food prices14Inferred

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → FOO inputs and prices
  • WAT → FOO irrigation in the East
  • TRD → FOO imports

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • household food access
  • price transmission from shocks

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is the fastest-growing climate–health risk in a country built for cold. Floods and cold also load the NHS and social care.

2,985deaths

heat-associated, England, 202211

40.3°C

record temperature28

2023report

Health Effects of Climate Change12

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heatabout 2,985 heat-associated deaths in 202211Reported
Vulnerabilityolder people and those with chronic illness12Reported
Floodinghealth effects of floods and displacement12Reported
Surge capacitynot consolidated nationally,Expert input

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • ENE → HLT power for care
  • WAT → HLT water quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • NHS and care heat surge capacity
  • cooling in care homes

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

The UK is among the most nature-depleted countries. Species abundance has fallen by a fifth since 1970, weakening natural flood and water regulation.

−19%

species abundance since 197015

1 in 6species

at risk of extinction, GB15

2021Act

Environment Act targets25

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Abundanceaverage decline of 19% since 197015Reported
Extinction riskone in six species in Great Britain15Reported
Riversstorm overflows and low flows10Reported
Targetslegally binding targets under the Environment Act25Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT flood and water regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • WAT → BIO river quality

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • habitat condition indicators
  • progress against Environment Act targets

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • XT-01 AI

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
  2. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
  3. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
  4. 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.back
  5. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
  6. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
  7. 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.back
  8. 17National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.back
  9. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
  10. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
  11. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
  12. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
  13. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
  14. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
  15. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
  16. 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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