- United Kingdom 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
ReportedEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-001
Extreme heat
- Driver
- heatwaves above 35–40 °C
- Exposure
- older people; care homes; dense cities
- Vulnerability
- housing not designed for heat; limited cooling
- Capacity
- heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power
- Horizon
- seasonal
ReportedEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-002
Surface-water and river flooding
ScenarioEQL 3RSK-GBR-WAT-003
Drought and water-supply shortfall
- Driver
- dry summers; population growth
- Exposure
- South and East of England
- Vulnerability
- leakage; limited storage
- Capacity
- new reservoirs; transfers; demand management9
- Cascade
- WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-GBR-INF-004
Single points of failure in lifelines
- Driver
- fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node
- Exposure
- airports, hospitals, data centres, rail
- Vulnerability
- limited redundancy at key substations19
- Capacity
- resilience framework27; backup supply
- Cascade
- ENE → INF → DAT, TRD
- Horizon
- any time
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | EXISTS | planning rules and flood defences; adaptation behind risk6 | |
| Monitoring and observation | DEMONSTRATED | Met Office and agency monitoring in continuous use | |
| Early warning | DEMONSTRATED | weather, flood and heat-health alerts in real events | |
| Preparedness and planning | EXISTS | National Risk Register7; Resilience Framework27 | |
| Redundancy and reserves | EXISTS | grid and water redundancy uneven; single points of failure19 | |
| Response | DEMONSTRATED | emergency response to storms, floods and heat | |
| Continuity of critical services | EXISTS | data centres designated CNI22; continuity tested event by event | |
| Recovery | EXISTS | recovery schemes after major floods | |
| Adaptation | EXISTS | national adaptation programme; CCC finds gaps6 | |
| Social protection | EXISTS | welfare and cost-of-living support | |
| Finance and insurance | EXISTS | flood cover via Flood Re until 203921 | |
| Institutional coordination | EXISTS | UK and devolved resilience structures | |
| Technical infrastructure | EXISTS | ageing water and drainage networks | |
| Workforce | EXISTS | health and care workforce pressures documented | |
| Research capacity | ADEQUATE | strong climate and environmental science | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
- 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
- 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
- 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
- 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.back
- 6Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.back
- 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
- 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024.back