Lenses and readings

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.

8 min read0 figures6 tables30 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Thin natural-hazard cover¹³, a large new infrastructure fund⁴⁰ and an energy system in transition⁷ show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-005 · ENE-006

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of German risk. Extreme rain, low rivers, heat and forest dieback are already recorded, and the energy system has shown it can absorb a supply shock. Evidence is strongest for emissions, floods and energy, and weakest for cross-system dependencies.

CLI-001 · WAT-004 · ENE-007 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flooded valley, a heatwave or an energy bill. The baseline asks that these be read as one system, and that public debate weigh who carries flood losses when nearly half of homes are uninsured.

WAT-004 · FIN-005 · HLT-008

NEXUS

Synthesis

Germany has rebuilt its energy system fast and observes its risks well, but its rivers, forests and valleys carry growing exposure. The 2027 programme should test the hot, dry Rhine summer, map flash-flood exposure and measure who carries the losses.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02 · A-03

6.2Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · six proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.4Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

The 2021 floods did not come from the great rivers but from small, steep valleys where rain ran off in hours. Flood defence built for slow river floods met a different hazard. Warning, evacuation and building in such catchments are now the frontier of German flood policy.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Small valleys, large losses

When the Rhine runs low, barges sail part-loaded and chemical and steel plants wait for inputs. A dry summer in the Alps is therefore an industrial event in the Ruhr. Freight resilience is water resilience.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

The Rhine is an industrial lifeline

In 2022 Germany lost its largest gas supplier and still kept the lights on, then closed its last reactors in 2023. The system proved it can absorb a shock; the next test is flexibility as coal leaves and demand electrifies.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

A transition tested by crisis

With nearly half of homes lacking natural-hazard cover, recovery after 2021 leaned on public funds. Whether that is a safety net or a hidden liability is the question behind the debate on mandatory insurance.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Uninsured is not unprotected, yet

6.5Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
PUBLISHED
IN CONSULTATION

Table 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
European Climate Law³⁸	EU	EU	IN FORCE	−55% by 2030; neutrality by 2050
Federal Climate Change Act, as amended 2024¹¹	Bundestag	Germany	IN FORCE	−65% by 2030; neutrality by 2045
Federal Climate Adaptation Act¹⁰	Bundestag	Germany	IN FORCE · JULY 2024	adaptation duties
Precautionary adaptation strategy⁹	Federal Government	Germany	ADOPTED 2024	adaptation targets
National water strategy²⁶	Federal Government	Germany	ADOPTED 2023	water to 2050
Resilience strategy²⁵	BBK	Germany	PUBLISHED 2022	disaster resilience
Infrastructure and climate special fund⁴⁰	Bundestag	Germany	IN FORCE · 2025	€500 billion fund
Sendai Framework 2015–2030	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

The federal adaptation law took effect in July 2024¹⁰
The precautionary adaptation strategy was adopted in December 2024⁹
A €500 billion infrastructure and climate fund was created in 2025⁴⁰

To watch in 2027

Decisions on mandatory natural-hazard insurance¹³
Critical-infrastructure legislation
Progress against the 2030 emissions target³

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers statutory assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in Q1 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Germany’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; statutory plans and assessments; official statistics; agency and insurance data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Hallmann et al.¹⁸	journal article	2017	supports	insect decline
Kreienkamp et al.³⁹	attribution study	2021	supports	2021 rainfall
Adaptation strategy⁹	government	2024	supports	adaptation
Expert council review³	independent council	2025	supports	emissions pace
Lee and Romero (eds.)²⁷	assessment	2023	context	global forcing
Zscheischler et al.²⁸	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
McElwee et al. (eds.)³⁰	assessment	2024	context	nexus interlinkages

Table 6.4Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Flood report 2021¹⁴	BMI	2022	supports	flood losses
Cost of climate impacts¹⁵	Prognos et al.	2022	supports	damage
Resilience strategy²⁵	BBK	2022	supports	capability

Table 6.5Official statistics and agency data
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Emissions 2024¹	UBA	2025	supports	emissions
Renewables in figures⁷	UBA	2025	supports	power mix
Weather 2024⁸	DWD	2024	supports	warmest year
Water statistics¹²	Destatis	2022	supports	water use
Population⁶	Destatis	2025	supports	profile
Heat mortality⁴⁵	RKI	2023–25	supports	heat deaths
Low water²⁴	BfG	recent	supports	Rhine

Table 6.6Energy, insurance and nature
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Gas situation reports¹⁷	BNetzA	2022–23	supports	gas crisis
Nuclear closure¹⁶	BMWK	2023	supports	power transition
Natural hazards report¹³	GDV	2024	supports	insurance cover
Forest damage²⁰²¹	Thünen · BMEL	2022–25	supports	forests
Red Lists¹⁹	BfN	recent	supports	species at risk
Catastrophe figures²	Munich Re	2026	context	European losses

Where the evidence agrees

Extreme rain and heat are already more frequent⁸³⁹
Forests and insects are in long-run decline¹⁸²⁰
Emissions are falling, but not yet fast enough for 2030³

Where it is unsettled

How often the Rhine will run low in summer²⁴
How a mandatory insurance scheme would share losses¹³
How much flexibility the grid will need after coal⁷

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
40Bundestag (ed.), Gesetz zur Errichtung eines Sondervermögens Infrastruktur und Klimaneutralität. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2025.back
7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
38European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal L 243, 9 July 2021.back
11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin.back
10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
9Bundesregierung (ed.), Vorsorgende Klimaanpassungsstrategie der Bundesregierung. Berlin, December 2024.back
26Bundesregierung (ed.), Nationale Wasserstrategie. Berlin, March 2023.back
25Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe (ed.), Deutsche Strategie zur Stärkung der Resilienz gegenüber Katastrophen. BBK, Bonn, 2022.back
3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
39F. Kreienkamp, S. Y. Philip, J. S. Tradowsky et al., Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021. World Weather Attribution, 2021.back
27H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
28J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
30P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
6Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Bevölkerungsstand: Bevölkerung am 31.12.2024. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2025.back
4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
21Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2025.back
19Bundesamt für Naturschutz (ed.), Rote Listen gefährdeter Tiere, Pflanzen und Pilze Deutschlands. BfN, Bonn, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Lenses and readings. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

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