- Reports
- GRA Capital Readiness
- Compare
Compare by chapter frame
The Alliance holds the capital meaning of every edition. Its key asks whether finance and insurance can read a finding without misusing it. Two subjects, or two quarters of one subject, are set side by side by chapter.
- Pairs
- 27
- Frame
- Eight chapters
- Subjects with a pack
- 55
01 · This desk
How GRA Capital Readiness compares.
The Alliance reads an edition for capital readiness: whether insurers, banks, investors and public finance can read a finding without distorting it.
The finance key is the Alliance’s. It asks whether a finding can be used in a balance sheet, and what it must not be used for.
An Alliance edition is not investment advice and not a rating. It states readiness, with the evidence it rests on.
02 · Compare
Side by side.
| Frame | Canada 2026 | United States 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative Part I describes systems and their couplings. | America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Western heat, drought and fire year A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Western heat, fire and grid summer A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Mexico 2026 | Brazil 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Brazil’s risk runs through water, forest and fire Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Strong El Niño drought across rivers, hydropower and fire A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Argentina 2026 | France 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. | France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Hot, dry summer with low river flows A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Germany 2026 | Italy 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Italy’s risk is coupled, not cumulative Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Drought-to-flood year A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | United Kingdom 2026 | Switzerland 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Switzerland’s risk starts in the mountains and runs through water Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Hot, dry summer in southern England A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Dry year with low reservoirs and low river flows A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | European Union 2026 | Turkiye 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Compound summer of heat, drought and fire A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Russian Federation 2026 | Saudi Arabia 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Summer heat peak with a mass gathering A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | United Arab Emirates 2026 | South Africa 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. | South Africa’s risk runs through its pipes and its grid Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Senegal 2026 | Kenya 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Senegal’s risk runs through its rivers, its coast and its fuel Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Urban flood with a water, power and clinic interruption A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | African Union 2026 | India 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone Part I describes systems and their couplings. | India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Compound drought, price and outbreak year A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | China 2026 | Japan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | China’s risk is climatic, seismic and demographic at continental scale Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Japan’s risk is seismic, climatic and demographic at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Extreme rain on a dense plain in a hot summer A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Great earthquake in an ageing region A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Republic of Korea 2026 | Indonesia 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Korea’s risk is demographic, climatic and import-dependent at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Heat and heavy-rain sequence over the capital region A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Singapore 2026 | Australia 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Australia’s risk is a coupling of heat, fire, water and distance Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Hot, dry summer in the populated south-east A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Water 2026 | Global Energy 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Water is where the systems meet Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Energy is where the systems meet Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the water baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the energy baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four water risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four energy risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Multi-basin drought under heat A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The water baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The energy baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 water agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 energy agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Food 2026 | Global Health and One Health 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Food is where the systems meet Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Health is where the systems meet Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the food baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the health baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four food risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four health risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Harvest shortfall under high input costs A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Outbreak, funding gap and heat season in fragile health systems A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The food baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The health baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 food agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 health agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Finance and Economy 2026 | Global Development and Humanitarian 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Finance is where shocks are priced Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Need is rising as support contracts Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the finance and economy baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the development and humanitarian baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four finance and economy risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four development and humanitarian risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Sovereign bond repricing under inflation and thin fiscal space A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The finance and economy baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The development and humanitarian baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 finance and economy agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 development and humanitarian agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Climate 2026 | Global Disaster and Resilience 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Climate sets the terms for the other systems Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Disaster is where the systems meet Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the climate baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the disaster and resilience baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four climate risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four disaster and resilience risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The climate baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The disaster and resilience baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 climate agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 disaster and resilience agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Infrastructure and Logistics 2026 | Global Cities 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Cities are where the systems meet Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the infrastructure and logistics baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the cities baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four infrastructure and logistics risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four cities risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Heat wave followed by flooding in a subsiding coastal city A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The infrastructure and logistics baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The cities baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 infrastructure and logistics agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 cities agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Biodiversity 2026 | Global Earth Observation 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Nature is the layer under every other system Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Observation is where evidence begins Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the biodiversity baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the Earth observation baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four biodiversity risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four Earth observation risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Hot, fire-prone season with land conversion and mining expansion A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Observation gap under an extreme season A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The biodiversity baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The Earth observation baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 biodiversity agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Earth observation agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Cyber and Digital Systems 2026 | Global Policy, Institutions and Governance 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | The digital layer is where the systems meet Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the cyber and digital systems baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the governance baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four cyber and digital systems risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four governance risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Provider failure under a ransomware wave A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Debt-service squeeze under aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The cyber and digital systems baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The governance baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 cyber and digital systems agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 governance agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Polycrisis 2026 | Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Crises are entangled, not stacked Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Lifelines fail together Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the global baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the lifeline systems baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Power loss that overlaps a telecom or cloud failure A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 lifeline systems agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026 | Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Trade moves through a few narrow places Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Small volumes, large dependence Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the supply chains and chokepoints baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the critical minerals baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | A chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 critical minerals agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026 | Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Public budgets and markets stress together Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Protection gaps are shared risk Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the fiscal and financial resilience baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the insurance and protection gaps baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Energy shock, sovereign repricing and nonbank selling A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 insurance and protection gaps agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Food, Water and Energy Security 2026 | Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Food, water and energy fail together Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Health threats cross every line Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the food, water and energy baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the health security baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | High-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing and thin surveillance A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 food, water and energy agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 health security agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026 | Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Pressure builds across the system Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Digital systems fail together Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the planetary boundaries baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the digital public infrastructure baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Shared provider failure that overlaps a power or network loss A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 planetary boundaries agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 digital public infrastructure agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026 | Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | People and places change together Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Shared spaces change together Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the human systems baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the ocean and polar commons baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 human systems agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 ocean and polar commons agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness 2026 | Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Technology rests on a few physical inputs Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Money meets risk Part I describes systems and their couplings. |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the strategic technology infrastructure baseline. | Key findings Twelve findings carry the resilience investment baseline. |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Systems and sectors at baseline |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. | Risks and capability Four global risk objects open the portfolio. |
| 5 · Scenario | Local grid constraint that overlaps a chip or mineral supply constraint A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | A loss year that meets tight public budgets A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Readings from the other desks The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 strategic technology infrastructure agenda. | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 resilience investment agenda. |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. |
| Frame | Baseline Edition 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · The question | Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative Part I describes systems and their couplings. | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
| 2 · Findings | Key findings Twelve findings carry the baseline. | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
| 3 · By system and sector | Systems and sectors at baseline | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
| 4 · Risk and capability | Risks and capability Four risk objects open the portfolio. | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
| 5 · Scenario | Western heat, drought and fire year A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction. | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
| 6 · Readings | Readings from the other desks The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
| 7 · Agenda | The 2027 agenda Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
| 8 · In depth | Systems in depth One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch. | Planned; no content before the Q1 2027 cut |
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada).
