References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

10 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 40 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  3. 3M. Kendon et al., “State of the UK Climate 2024,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 45, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  4. 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5HM Government (ed.), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. HM Government, London, January 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  6. 6Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  12. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  13. 13Office for National Statistics (ed.), Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2023. ONS, Newport, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  14. 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  20. 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  21. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  22. 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  23. 23Department for Business and Trade (ed.), Resilience for the Future: The UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy. DBT, London, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  25. 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8
  29. 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
  30. 30WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
  31. 31H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.
  34. 34P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  38. 38S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  39. 39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  40. 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
United Kingdom Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GBRNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-GBR-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GBR edition Reports United Kingdom 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GBR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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