The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a hot, dry summer load health services, water supply, rail and power in southern England at the same time?

    INI-GBR-HDS-01 · hot, dry summer; first output: dependency graph for three regions.

  2. A-02

    Where does surface-water flood risk fall on households, and how will cover change as Flood Re transitions by 2039?

    INI-GBR-FLD-02 · flood exposure and cover; first output: exposure–cover table by region.

  3. A-03

    Which substations, data centres and lifeline nodes are single points of failure for other critical services?

    INI-GBR-INF-03 · lifeline interdependence; first output: public-safe interdependence schematic.

  4. A-04

    How would a shock to imported food and energy pass into household prices and food security?

    INI-GBR-FOO-04 · import price transmission; first output: transmission model.

  5. A-05

    What surge capacity do the NHS and social care have for a 40 °C heatwave?

    INI-GBR-HLT-05 · heat surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five regions.

  6. A-06

    How do storm overflows, drought and heat combine to degrade river water quality?

    With GS-01 Water; first output: basin note.

  7. A-07

    Which coastal communities face combined erosion, sea-level rise and storm surge?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GBR-HDS-01Hot, dry summer dependency modelInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-GBR-FLD-02Flood exposure and coverInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-GBR-INF-03Lifeline interdependence and single points of failureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-GBR-FOO-04Import price transmissionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-GBR-HLT-05Heat surge readinessInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
MSN-GBR-2027-01Hot, dry summer Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

United Kingdom is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run from 2027, across all four nations. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-GBR-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GBR-2027-01 · hot, dry summer
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
HLT-004 · heat deathsINI-GBR-HLT-05heat surge readinessPUBLIC
WAT-005 · supply shortfallINI-GBR-HDS-01 · GS-01hot, dry summerPUBLIC
WAT-006 · flood exposureINI-GBR-FLD-02 · key F reviewexposure and coverPUBLIC
FOO-008 · food supplyINI-GBR-FOO-04import price transmissionPUBLIC
INF-010 · single points of failureINI-GBR-INF-03lifeline interdependencePUBLIC
BIO-009 · species declineGS-11 Biodiversity editioncondition baselinePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GBR-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather warningsMet Officereal timeearly-warning rung
Flood warningsEnvironment Agency · SEPA · NRWreal timeRSK-GBR-CLI-002
Heat-health alertsUKHSAdaily in seasonRSK-GBR-CLI-001
Water situation reportsEnvironment AgencymonthlyRSK-GBR-WAT-003
Storm overflow monitoringwater companies via the Environment Agencynear real timeWAT-007
Electricity system dataNESOreal timeENE findings
Catastrophe estimatesreinsurers and index providersper eventFIN findings

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GBR-001Single points of failure in grid substations19CORROBORATEDENE · INFinitiative A-03
SIG-GBR-002Projected water-supply shortfall in the South and East9CORROBORATEDWAT · HLTinitiative A-01
SIG-GBR-003Rising heat-health burden1112CORROBORATEDHLT · CLIinitiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
  2. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
  3. 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
  4. 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Global Risks AllianceCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

The Global Risks Alliance

Finance · trust · precision

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Support our work

Who funds us

GRA is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.