- United Kingdom 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Projected public water-supply shortfall, England
≈5bn litres/dayby 2055 without new supply and demand action.
Scenario2055Environment Agency9
ENE · Energy
Territorial emissions
373Mt CO₂e53% below 1990; the last coal plant closed in September 2024.
Reported2024DESNZ1
FOO · Food
Share of food consumed that is produced domestically
≈60%the rest is imported, mainly from the EU.
Reported2023DEFRA14
HLT · Health
Heat-associated deaths, England
2,985deathsin summer 2022, the year temperatures first reached 40 °C.
Reported2022UKHSA11
BIO · Biodiversity
Average change in abundance of studied species
−19%since 1970; one in six species at risk of extinction in Great Britain.
Reported1970–2021State of Nature15
SYS · Cross-system
Properties at flood risk, England
6.3millionabout one in four; potentially 8 million by 2050.
Reported2024Environment Agency8
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Flood exposure rising; supply shortfall projected in the South and East; river quality under strain. | WAT → HLT · WAT → INF | Reported EQL 4 |
| ENE | Coal ended in 2024; clean power planned for 2030; grid more central as demand electrifies. | ENE → HLT · ENE → DAT | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | About 60% of food produced domestically; exposed to import and energy prices. | FOO ← ENE, TRD | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | Heat deaths rising; heat and cold load the NHS and social care. | HLT ← CLI, ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| BIO | Species abundance down 19% since 1970; habitats fragmented. | BIO → WAT regulation | Reported EQL 4 |
| CLI | First year above 10 °C in 2022; 40.3 °C recorded. | forcing on all five systems | Reported EQL 5 |
| INF | Lifelines interdependent; single points of failure exposed in 2025. | INF → ENE, DAT, TRD | Reported EQL 3 |
| FIN | Weather claims high; flood cover supported by Flood Re until 2039. | FIN ← CLI · FIN → households | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure in 2024. | DAT ← ENE · DAT → FIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| AIC | Compute growth adds load to grid connections. | AIC → ENE | Inferred EQL 2 |
| MIN | Critical minerals strategy in place; import reliance high. | MIN → ENE transition | Inferred EQL 2 |
| TRD | Food and energy import dependence passes price shocks to households. | TRD → FOO, ENE | Inferred EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | 89 national risks; 61 climate risks and opportunities47 | compound hot, dry summers | GOOD |
| GS-01 | Water | flood exposure and supply shortfall89 | drought and surface-water flooding | GOOD |
| GS-02 | Energy | coal ended; clean power 20301618 | single points of failure | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | about 60% domestic production14 | import price shocks | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | heat deaths1112 | heat surge in NHS and care | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | weather claims; Flood Re to 20392021 | flood cover affordability | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | regional inequalities in exposure | cost-of-living pressure | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | first year above 10 °C29 | heat and extreme rainfall | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | resilience framework in place27 | concurrent events | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | Heathrow outage, 202519 | lifeline interdependence | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | London heat and surface water | urban heat; drainage | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | abundance −19% since 197015 | habitat loss; water quality | GOOD |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | strong national monitoring | data integration | PARTIAL |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | data centres designated CNI22 | outages and attacks | PARTIAL |
| GS-14 | Policy | Climate Change Act; Environment Act; 2025 water law242526 | implementation | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | deep research base | translation into operations | THIN |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
- 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
- 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
- 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
- 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
- 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
- 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
- 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
- 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.back
- 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
- 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
- 20Association of British Insurers (ed.), weather-related home insurance claims, 2023. ABI, London, 2024.back
- 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
- 29Met Office (ed.), “2022: the UK’s warmest year on record.” Met Office, Exeter, January 2023.back
- 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.back
- 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
- 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024.back
- 24UK Parliament (ed.), Climate Change Act 2008, as amended by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. London.back
- 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.back
- 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.back