The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
The methods Financial Stability relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.
GRA · In development · service level R0
The Financial Stability methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them financial economics and macro-finance, network science and contagion, and complex systems and agent-based modelling, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.
Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.
For analysis and uncertainty, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on population density and night lights with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on Europe; 4 further NASA layers wait in the list.
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For analysis and uncertainty, in GRA's spatial-finance reading, the map opens on population density and night lights with built-up and settlement extent from NASA GIBS, framed on Europe; 4 further NASA layers wait in the list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Model | Captures | Misses |
|---|---|---|
| Eisenberg-Noe clearing | Default cascades through bilateral obligations | Liquidity, fire sales, behaviour |
| DebtRank-type centrality | Systemic importance from network position | Loss magnitudes in stress |
| Common-asset fire-sale models | Losses through overlapping portfolios | Strategic behaviour of sellers |
| Agent-based market models | Heterogeneous behaviour and feedback | Calibration is weak |
Where bilateral data is unavailable, networks are reconstructed from aggregates by maximum entropy or similar methods, which tend to understate concentration. Results are labelled MODELLED and tested for sensitivity to the reconstruction method. Methods at GCRI network science.
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Sensitivity analysis | Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them. |
| Model validation | Independent testing that a model performs as intended and is fit for a stated use. |
| Financial economics and macro-finance | Financial economics and macro-finance study how asset prices, credit and financial institutions interact with the real economy. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.