Published scenarios

Process

Published scenarios: How an economic shock propagates

Input-output models trace a change in final use or primary input prices through industry linkages, with multipliers for output, income and employment.

1. 01 Shock and linkages

   1. 01ShockDataset · SupervisorA shock enters as an exogenous change in final uses, or as a change in the price of a primary input.
   2. 02Input-output linkagesModel · SupervisorBackward linkages tie an industry to its suppliers, forward linkages to its buyers. The model assumes fixed technical input coefficients.

2. 02 Economy

   1. 03Sector outputModel · SupervisorThe quantity model estimates how a change in final uses affects output. Output multipliers give the production needed per unit of final use.
   2. 04PricesModel · SupervisorThe price model simulates cost-driven inflation from changes in primary input prices. It assumes perfect competition.

3. 03 People

   1. 05JobsDataset · SupervisorEmployment multipliers represent jobs created per unit of currency of additional final use.
   2. 06Household incomeDataset · SupervisorIncome multipliers show how final use changes affect household income. A social accounting matrix shows the circular flow of income.

4. 04 State

   1. 07Public financesStep · SupervisorEffects on public revenue and spending need government accounts linked to the model, for example in a social accounting matrix.
   2. 08Policy responseDecision · SupervisorThe responsible party decides on a response. The same linkages can be used to test it.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval. The models assume fixed technical coefficients and are not forecasts.