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GRAFinancial Crime and Fraud RiskIn development
Research and evidence

Professional research

The research behind Financial Crime and Fraud Risk: the questions it asks, the methods it uses and how evidence is reviewed before it is published.

Open Analysis and uncertainty Back to Financial Crime and Fraud Risk
Publisher
The Global Risks Alliance
Field
Financial stability, Cyber and digital resilience, Governance and institutions
  1. 01Draftsources cited, labels attached
  2. 02Evidence checkevery value traced
  3. 03Independent reviewconflicts declared
  4. 04Editionpublished with its limits
  5. 05Correctiona new version, never a silent edit
01In brief

The short answer.

Financial Crime and Fraud Risk research is the evidence work behind the platform: questions such as payments fraud and identity fraud, answered with artificial intelligence and machine learning as well as network science and contagion and reviewed before publication. Every result carries an evidence label, from observed to modelled or expert judgement, and missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

02Canvas

Draft to published version.

Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
Professional research: from a source to a labelled evidence recordA source is registered with its licence and steward, checked for quality and coverage, labelled by evidence class, versioned and published with a passport; corrections create a new version. Design of the process, not a record of a run.

Fig.How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.

03Geography

Activity and exposure in Mexico.

Night-time lights and population, a proxy for economic activity, with the floods and fires that put assets at risk, framed on Mexico; each layer is a dated NASA product.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Activity and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Night-time lights and population, a proxy for economic activity, with the floods and fires that put assets at risk, framed on Mexico.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Natural EarthSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.

Layers and dates

  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies, last day: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026

04Questions

What the research asks.

  1. 01

    Payments fraud

    Fraud in digital transactions.

  2. 02

    Identity fraud

    Identity compromise and synthetic identities.

  3. 03

    Money laundering risk

    AML typologies and governance.

  4. 04

    Suspicious activity controls

    Investigation responsibility and safeguards.

  5. 05

    Consumer scams

    Scam harm and protective controls.

  6. 06

    Financial sanctions risk

    Due diligence and exclusion policies.

05Research questions

The questions Financial Crime and Fraud Risk research works on.

QuestionEvidence used
How do disasters change fraud?public typologies and statistics
Where does de-risking hurt?flows and centres
Does R.16 reduce fraud?graph methods

Financial Crime and Fraud Risk research concerns financial crime under stress. It is written for AML and fraud teams and sanctions specialists, carries an evidence label on every value and never performs any institution's own analysis of customer data.

06Evidence

Every result keeps its label.

Results are labelled as observed, officially reported, estimated, modelled, forecast, scenario or expert judgement. Missing data is shown as missing, never filled silently.

Methods

Methods and uncertainty

How results are produced and where they stop

Sources

Source and data register

Where data comes from and on what terms

Publications

Reviewed outputs

Citable work with its editorial status

07Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.

TermDefinition
Research integrityConduct of research in line with principles of reliability, honesty, respect and accountability, as the European Code of Conduct for Research Integrity sets them out.
Evidence labelA tag naming the kind of evidence, such as observed or modelled, that should survive every summary.
ReproducibilityObtaining consistent results using the same data and analysis code as the original study.
Synthetic identityA fake identity built from a mix of real and invented data.
08Sources

Where this page's references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

09Pages

Pages in Professional research.

Page

Analysis and uncertainty

Page

Financial source and licence register

10Questions

Questions and answers.

Can I propose a research question?
Yes. Write to contact@globalriskalliance.com with the question, the context and who would use the answer. A proposal receives a reference; it does not commit the platform to the work.
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