The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for Disaster Risk Finance are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Disaster Risk Finance sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the disaster and crisis field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
How a storm crossing a trigger zone would set a payment. Real geography; synthetic storm and design terms.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
A scenario takes one event at a stated severity and runs it down the layers: what the budget contingency absorbs, when the reserve fund is exhausted, whether contingent credit is drawn, whether the parametric cover triggers and how much is left as residual. Values are illustrative. Anticipatory triggers on forecasts are shown separately because they pay before loss is known.
| Layer | Question in the scenario |
|---|---|
| Retention | Which lines of spending are cut to fund response? |
| Contingent credit | Is the drawdown condition met, and how fast? |
| Transfer | Does the index cross the attachment point? |
| Residual | Who carries what remains? |
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.