GRA · Climate and Nature Financial Risk
Spatial financeWhere capital meets hazard, exposure and transition
Published scenarios
Climate scenarios used in finance combine transition pathways, physical hazard projections and macroeconomic variables, and since 2025 short-horizon shocks as well. This page sets out the scenario families, the NGFS caveat on Phase V physical damage estimates, and the design choices that decide whether results are informative. Values are design values only.
The workspace for published scenarios.
Climate scenario analysis
Bank loan book · Exercise 2 · Example interface, not a record
Scenario pipeline
- Select scenariosorderly · disorderly · hot house
- Pathwayscarbon price · GDP
- Sector impactsmargins
- Physical hazardsassets
- Credit parametersPD · LGD
- Portfolio losscapital
- Discloselimits
PD uplift by sector and scenario
basis points, illustrative
Expected loss path
Climate and Nature Financial Risk · Climate scenario analysis. Climate scenario analysis: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
Releases appear as they are reviewed.
Analysis runs in Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
NGFS long-term and short-term scenarios.
| Family | Narratives | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term (Phase V) | Orderly, disorderly, hot house world, too little too late | Strategy and long-horizon exposure |
| Short-term (May 2025) | Physical-only, orderly and disorderly transition, combined | Five-year financial planning and stress |
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Published scenarios: Coastal flood adaptation pathways
9 steps·3 stages·1 gate
Process
Published scenarios: Coastal flood adaptation pathways
Hazard and impact steps follow coastal flood practice; pathway steps follow dynamic adaptive policy pathways (Haasnoot and others, 2013), with signposts and tipping points.
01 Hazard
- 01Sea level scenariosDatasetSea level scenarios set the range of future mean sea level. The scenario set and horizon come from the source the page names.
- 02Surge and tide recordsDatasetRecords of storm surge and tide supply the short-term water level variation.
- 03Extreme water levelsModelSea level, surge and tide are combined into extreme water levels by return period, using a joint probability approach.
02 Impact
- 04Flood modelModelA flood model maps overtopping and inundation for each scenario. The place is set by the page.
- 05ExposureDatasetExposure lists the people, assets and ports in the flooded area.
- 06DamageModelDepth-damage functions turn flood depth into expected damage, for example expected annual damage.
03 Pathways
- 07Adaptation tipping pointsGateAn adaptation tipping point is the condition under which a measure stops meeting its objectives as conditions change.
- 08Adaptation pathwaysStepPathways sequence measures and the signposts that show when to switch. Signposts are monitored to see whether adaptation is needed.
- 09Decision and review datesDecision · SupervisorThe responsible body chooses a pathway and sets review dates. The body is set by the page.
Neutral outline of a published external standard or method, from its issuing body. Not a record of operation. Nexus does not perform, certify or approve any step shown. A gate or decision belongs to the party the source names. The DAPP paper was identified from its citation record and abstract summary; its full text was not read.
Physical damage estimates under review.
NGFS advised in December 2025 that the study behind the Phase V physical damage function had been retracted. Physical-risk results from that vintage are shown with a stated caveat and alongside hazard-based asset-level estimates, which do not depend on the macro damage function. Projections at GCRI climate projections; topic depth at scenario analysis.
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