The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)
Sector-level scenarios for AI and Financial Model Risk are published here with their assumptions and limits. They describe aggregate exposures; they are not forecasts and not investment advice.
AI and Financial Model Risk sector scenarios are published, aggregated descriptions of how exposures in the artificial intelligence field could evolve under stated assumptions, read against frameworks such as Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management (SR 11-7). They describe sector-level exposures with their limits; they are not forecasts, assess no individual firm and are not investment advice.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
How satellite radar turns a flood into an exposure update. Synthetic scene; no real event or place.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
| Scenario | Mechanism |
|---|---|
| Regime shift | Relationships learned in calm periods break in stress |
| Data feed failure | A shared input degrades many models at once |
| Feedback loop | Model decisions change the data the model later learns from |
| Exposure update error | An automated satellite-derived exposure layer misclassifies damage after an event |
The figure shows how satellite radar turns a flood into an exposure update, using a synthetic scene. Each step, from radar backscatter to flood mask to building damage, carries an error rate that must be validated before it feeds claims or credit decisions. Methods at GCRI disaster monitoring.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Scenario | A plausible description of how the future may unfold under stated assumptions, not a prediction. |
| Severe but plausible scenario | A disruption scenario extreme enough to test resilience yet realistic enough to occur. |
| Reverse stress test | Starting from a failure outcome and identifying the scenarios that would cause it. |
| Investment advice | A personal recommendation on investments, a regulated activity in most jurisdictions. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.