Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

7 min read0 figures8 tables16 notesNR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1AI is infrastructure, not only software
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chip supply disruption under grid constraint
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
    1. B.1 The indicator set
    2. B.2 Global source register
    3. B.3 Regional reading, AI across ten clusters
    4. B.4 Cluster card, leading-edge chip manufacturing
    5. B.5 How countries appear in the AI edition
    6. B.6 Licences
    7. B.7 Formats and provenance
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
Data-centre electricity use≈415TWh2024Reported1
Share of world electricity≈1.5%2024Reported1
Projected data-centre use≈945TWh2030Scenario1
US data-centre share of electricity4.4%2023Reported15
Frontier training compute growth4–5×a year2010–2024Reported14
Fall in cost of fixed-level use>280×fold2022–2024Reported2
Organisations using AI78%2024Reported2
Corporate AI investment≈252US$ billion2024Reported2
Reported AI incidents233incidents2024Reported2
Leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan92%2019Reported17
Jobs exposed to AI, IMF≈40%2024Reported16
Jobs exposed to generative AI, ILO≈25%2025Reported32
Jobs created by 2030170million2025–2030Reported20
Jobs displaced by 203092million2025–2030Reported20
People offline2.6billion2024Reported34
Indicators, CSVIndicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • WAT
  • ENE
  • FOO
  • HLT
  • BIO
  • CLI
  • FIN
  • TRD
  • MIN
  • AIC
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
Energy and AI1intergovernmentalglobal2024–2030periodicENE
AI Index 20252universityglobal2024annualadoption
International AI Safety Report3expert panelglobal2025periodicsafety
Data-centre energy report15national laboratoryUnited States2023periodicENE
Compute trends14research instituteglobal2010–2024continuouscompute
Semiconductor supply chain17industry · consultancyglobal2019one-offchips
Critical Minerals Outlook18intergovernmentalglobal2024annualMIN
Labour exposure1632IMF · ILOglobal2024–2025periodiclabour
Facts and Figures34UN agencyglobal2024annualaccess
Incident databases2728civil society · OECDglobalcontinuouscontinuoussafety

B.3Regional reading, AI across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of AI infrastructure and exposure in table form, and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, AI across ten clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americalargest data-centre load; grid queuespower, water, labourLBNL15; IEA1
South Americaearly adoption; clean-power potentialenergy, skillsassessments33
Europebinding AI law; grid constraintsgovernance, powerAI Act4
Eurasialimited public dataaccess to chipsexport controls29
Middle East and North Africanew data-centre investment; water stresswater, powerIEA1
Africaconnectivity gapsaccess, skillsITU34
South Asialarge workforce exposurelabour, skillsILO32
East Asiachip manufacturing concentrationsupply chainSIA–BCG17
ASEANfast-growing data-centre hubspower, waterIEA1
Oceania-Pacificsmall-island access gapsconnectivityITU34

B.4Cluster card, leading-edge chip manufacturing

  • supply chain
  • single region
  • chips
  • minerals
Systems in view
compute, electronics, trade, finance
Defining fact
about 92% of leading-edge logic capacity in one region in 201917
Couplings
MIN → AIC chips; ENE and WAT → fabs; TRD → AIC export controls
Capability evidence
new fabs announced in several regions; stockpiles limited
Gaps
current capacity shares; time to recover from disruption
Agenda items
X-02

Leading-edge chips depend on a handful of fabs, tool makers and mineral refiners. Each is efficient; together they form a chain with few alternatives.

SUPPLY

One region, one chain

Chip fabrication uses large volumes of ultra-pure water and reliable power, coupling chip supply to droughts and grid events.

PHYSICAL INPUTS

Fabs need water and power

Export controls on chips, tools and minerals since 2022 add policy risk to physical risk.

TRADE

Controls tighten

B.5How countries appear in the AI edition

Countries enter the AI edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the AI edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  2. 15A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
  3. 14J. Sevilla and E. Roldán, “Training compute of frontier AI models grows by 4–5x per year.” Epoch AI, 2024.back
  4. 2Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.back
  5. 17Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.back
  6. 16M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., “Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,” IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/2024/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.back
  7. 32International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.back
  8. 20World Economic Forum (ed.), Future of Jobs Report 2025. WEF, Cologny/Geneva, January 2025.back
  9. 34ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.back
  10. 3Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.back
  11. 18International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  12. 27Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  13. 28OECD (ed.), OECD AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor. OECD.AI, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  14. 33UNCTAD (ed.), Technology and Innovation Report 2025: Inclusive Artificial Intelligence for Development. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
  15. 4European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.back
  16. 29U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex B: Data appendix. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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