The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Western heat, drought and fire year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a multi-year drought combined with peak-electricity constraints affect agriculture, municipal water and food logistics in Western Canada?

    INI-CAN-WAT-01 · drought–energy–rail model; first output: dependency graph and data cut for three basins.

  2. A-02

    How much health-system surge capacity remains during concurrent heat and wildfire smoke in large western and central cities?

    INI-CAN-HLT-02 · heat–smoke surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five health regions.

  3. A-03

    How large is the protection gap by peril and province, and where does the uninsured share land?

    INI-CAN-FIN-03 · protection gap and fiscal exposure; first output: peril-by-province loss table, 2016–2025.

  4. A-04

    Through which sectors and provinces would a change in North American trade terms travel fastest?

    INI-CAN-TRD-04 · trade-shock transmission; first output: input–output exposure map.

  5. A-05

    What is the condition of ecosystems outside protected areas, and how fast is it changing?

    INI-CAN-BIO-05 · ecosystem condition; first output: indicator set and coverage matrix.

  6. A-06

    Where do rail, port and grid assets share failure modes on the western gateway?

    INI-CAN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: public-safe interdependence schematic.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are northern and remote communities to permafrost thaw and to fuel and food supply disruption?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities on the ladder have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives, one project and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-CAN-WAT-01Western Canada drought–energy–rail dependency modelInitiativeA-01 · A-06PROPOSED
INI-CAN-HLT-02Heat and smoke surge readinessInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-CAN-FIN-03Protection gap and fiscal exposure baselineInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-CAN-TRD-04Trade-shock transmission modelInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-CAN-BIO-05Ecosystem condition beyond protected areasInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-CAN-WAT-01aThree-basin data cut and dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-CAN-2027-01Compound drought–energy–rail Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Canada is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Canada from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-CAN-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-CAN-2027-01 · compound drought–energy–rail
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
FIN-002 · lossesfinance-readiness review (key F)protection-gap work A-03PUBLIC
FIN-003 · uninsured sharefinance-readiness review (key F)peril-by-province splitPUBLIC
ENE-005 · hydro dependenceINI-CAN-WAT-01drought–energy modelPUBLIC
HLT-008 · heat mortalityINI-CAN-HLT-02surge readinessPUBLIC
BIO-009 · conservationINI-CAN-BIO-05condition baselinePUBLIC
TRD-011 · trade channelINI-CAN-TRD-04transmission modelPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-CAN-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Canadian Wildland Fire Information SystemNatural Resources CanadadailyRSK-CAN-CLI-001
Wildland fire situation reports33CIFFCdaily in seasonresponse rung
Real-time hydrometric dataWater Survey of Canada, ECCCnear real timeRSK-CAN-WAT-002
Canadian Drought MonitorAgriculture and Agri-Food Canadamonthlyagenda item A-01
Weather alerts and warningsMeteorological Service of Canadareal timeearly-warning rung
Avian influenza summaries27PHAC · CFIAweeklyhealth signals
Catastrophe event estimates2CatIQper eventfinance findings
National Inventory Report1ECCCannualCLI-001
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-CAN-001Recurrent low water in western reservoirs and rivers, 2023–2025PARTIALWAT · ENEresearch question A-01
SIG-CAN-002H5N1 in poultry and wild birds; a domestically acquired human case in 202427CORROBORATEDHLT · FOO · BIOmonitoring
SIG-CAN-003Fire seasons starting earlier and lasting longer40CORROBORATEDCLI · BIO · HLTrisk object RSK-CAN-CLI-001

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 33Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), National wildland fire situation reports, 2023–2025. CIFFC, Winnipeg, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  2. 27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  3. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
  4. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
  5. 40P. Jain, Q. E. Barber, S. W. Taylor et al., “Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada,” Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 6764, 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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